Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Alejandro Hernandez
Goals
27%
25%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.572.70safe0.16–2.090.72–2.430.88–4.52safer0.00–2.350.49–2.650.40–5.00actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
28%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.694.878.56safe1.83–5.553.12–6.614.95–12.16safer1.34–6.042.66–7.074.00–13.12actual6.004.0010.00
Total shots
38%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1813.2825.47safe8.26–16.119.72–16.8517.98–32.95safer7.17–17.208.76–17.8115.93–35.00actual12.0012.0024.00
Shots in box
31%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction8.079.7017.77safe5.13–11.027.02–12.3812.15–23.39safer4.30–11.856.28–13.1210.58–24.96actual7.007.0014.00
Blocked shots
34%
15%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.454.057.50safe1.57–5.342.39–5.703.96–11.04safer1.03–5.881.90–6.192.93–12.07actual1.005.006.00
Corners
35%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.915.6910.61safe2.70–7.133.69–7.696.39–14.82safer2.13–7.703.16–8.235.29–15.93actual3.003.006.00
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction40.8059.02safe34.01–47.5952.24–65.81safer32.34–49.2650.57–67.48actual55.0045.00
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction405570974safe337–472503–636841–1108safer319–490486–654805–1144actual5205191039
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction65.9278.31safe61.89–69.9573.99–82.63safer60.59–71.2472.68–83.94
Fouls
52%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction9.949.2119.14safe7.10–12.786.26–12.1513.36–24.93safer6.34–13.535.51–12.9011.86–26.43actual11.007.0018.00
Offsides
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.873.91safe0.88–3.200.78–2.971.66–6.16safer0.58–3.500.50–3.251.07–6.75actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
48%
21%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.141.693.83safe1.09–3.180.56–2.821.66–6.00safer0.83–3.440.27–3.111.10–6.55actual3.001.004.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
55%
16%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.332.495.83safe1.90–4.770.93–4.052.83–8.82safer1.51–5.160.51–4.472.02–9.63actual3.004.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.16–2.09 0.00–2.35 | 2.00 | 1.57 0.72–2.43 0.49–2.65 | 1.00 | 2.70 0.88–4.52 0.40–5.00 | 3.00 | 27% 25% 48% |
| Shots on target | 3.69 1.83–5.55 1.34–6.04 | 6.00 | 4.87 3.12–6.61 2.66–7.07 | 4.00 | 8.56 4.95–12.16 4.00–13.12 | 10.00 | 28% 59% |
| Total shots | 12.18 8.26–16.11 7.17–17.20 | 12.00 | 13.28 9.72–16.85 8.76–17.81 | 12.00 | 25.47 17.98–32.95 15.93–35.00 | 24.00 | 38% 55% |
| Shots in box | 8.07 5.13–11.02 4.30–11.85 | 7.00 | 9.70 7.02–12.38 6.28–13.12 | 7.00 | 17.77 12.15–23.39 10.58–24.96 | 14.00 | 31% 60% |
| Blocked shots | 3.45 1.57–5.34 1.03–5.88 | 1.00 | 4.05 2.39–5.70 1.90–6.19 | 5.00 | 7.50 3.96–11.04 2.93–12.07 | 6.00 | 34% 15% 51% |
| Corners | 4.91 2.70–7.13 2.13–7.70 | 3.00 | 5.69 3.69–7.69 3.16–8.23 | 3.00 | 10.61 6.39–14.82 5.29–15.93 | 6.00 | 35% 53% |
| Possession % | 40.80 34.01–47.59 32.34–49.26 | 55.00 | 59.02 52.24–65.81 50.57–67.48 | 45.00 | — | — | 85% |
| Passes | 405 337–472 319–490 | 520 | 570 503–636 486–654 | 519 | 974 841–1108 805–1144 | 1039 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.92 61.89–69.95 60.59–71.24 | — | 78.31 73.99–82.63 72.68–83.94 | — | — | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 9.94 7.10–12.78 6.34–13.53 | 11.00 | 9.21 6.26–12.15 5.51–12.90 | 7.00 | 19.14 13.36–24.93 11.86–26.43 | 18.00 | 52% 39% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.88–3.20 0.58–3.50 | 3.00 | 1.87 0.78–2.97 0.50–3.25 | 0.00 | 3.91 1.66–6.16 1.07–6.75 | 3.00 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.14 1.09–3.18 0.83–3.44 | 3.00 | 1.69 0.56–2.82 0.27–3.11 | 1.00 | 3.83 1.66–6.00 1.10–6.55 | 4.00 | 48% 21% 31% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 1.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 1.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.33 1.90–4.77 1.51–5.16 | 3.00 | 2.49 0.93–4.05 0.51–4.47 | 4.00 | 5.83 2.83–8.82 2.02–9.63 | 7.00 | 55% 16% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.