UEFA Nations League·League B - 3·
UEFA Nations League·League B - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Allard Lindhout
Goals
34%
28%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.232.36safe0.16–2.100.38–2.090.54–4.19safer0.00–2.350.15–2.320.06–4.67actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
36%
15%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.503.997.49safe1.64–5.362.25–5.733.89–11.10safer1.15–5.851.78–6.202.93–12.05actual3.007.0010.00
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2212.2023.42safe7.29–15.148.64–15.7615.93–30.91safer6.20–16.247.68–16.7213.88–32.96actual9.0016.0025.00
Shots in box
37%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction7.398.1815.57safe4.45–10.335.50–10.869.94–21.19safer3.62–11.164.76–11.608.38–22.76actual6.0011.0017.00
Blocked shots
44%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.503.416.91safe1.62–5.381.75–5.063.37–10.44safer1.08–5.931.26–5.552.34–11.48actual2.003.005.00
Corners
42%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.854.949.80safe2.64–7.072.94–6.945.58–14.01safer2.07–7.642.41–7.484.48–15.12actual3.005.008.00
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction45.6754.35safe38.88–52.4647.57–61.14safer37.21–54.1345.89–62.81actual42.0058.00
Passes
29%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction432498930safe365–499431–564796–1064safer347–518414–582761–1099actual380526906
Pass accuracy %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction66.3373.25safe62.30–70.3668.93–77.58safer61.01–71.6567.62–78.89
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7012.2122.91safe7.87–13.549.27–15.1617.13–28.70safer7.11–14.308.52–15.9015.63–30.20actual14.0017.0031.00
Offsides
39%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.533.10safe0.42–2.740.44–2.620.85–5.35safer0.12–3.040.15–2.900.26–5.94actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
35%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.963.69safe0.68–2.770.83–3.091.52–5.86safer0.42–3.040.55–3.380.97–6.41actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
47%
18%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.722.385.09safe1.28–4.150.82–3.932.10–8.09safer0.89–4.540.40–4.361.29–8.90actual5.001.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.16–2.10 0.00–2.35 | 2.00 | 1.23 0.38–2.09 0.15–2.32 | 2.00 | 2.36 0.54–4.19 0.06–4.67 | 4.00 | 34% 28% 39% |
| Shots on target | 3.50 1.64–5.36 1.15–5.85 | 3.00 | 3.99 2.25–5.73 1.78–6.20 | 7.00 | 7.49 3.89–11.10 2.93–12.05 | 10.00 | 36% 15% 50% |
| Total shots | 11.22 7.29–15.14 6.20–16.24 | 9.00 | 12.20 8.64–15.76 7.68–16.72 | 16.00 | 23.42 15.93–30.91 13.88–32.96 | 25.00 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 7.39 4.45–10.33 3.62–11.16 | 6.00 | 8.18 5.50–10.86 4.76–11.60 | 11.00 | 15.57 9.94–21.19 8.38–22.76 | 17.00 | 37% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 1.62–5.38 1.08–5.93 | 2.00 | 3.41 1.75–5.06 1.26–5.55 | 3.00 | 6.91 3.37–10.44 2.34–11.48 | 5.00 | 44% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 4.85 2.64–7.07 2.07–7.64 | 3.00 | 4.94 2.94–6.94 2.41–7.48 | 5.00 | 9.80 5.58–14.01 4.48–15.12 | 8.00 | 42% 45% |
| Possession % | 45.67 38.88–52.46 37.21–54.13 | 42.00 | 54.35 47.57–61.14 45.89–62.81 | 58.00 | — | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 432 365–499 347–518 | 380 | 498 431–564 414–582 | 526 | 930 796–1064 761–1099 | 906 | 29% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.33 62.30–70.36 61.01–71.65 | — | 73.25 68.93–77.58 67.62–78.89 | — | — | — | 17% 80% |
| Fouls | 10.70 7.87–13.54 7.11–14.30 | 14.00 | 12.21 9.27–15.16 8.52–15.90 | 17.00 | 22.91 17.13–28.70 15.63–30.20 | 31.00 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 0.00 | 1.53 0.44–2.62 0.15–2.90 | 1.00 | 3.10 0.85–5.35 0.26–5.94 | 1.00 | 39% 24% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.68–2.77 0.42–3.04 | 2.00 | 1.96 0.83–3.09 0.55–3.38 | 1.00 | 3.69 1.52–5.86 0.97–6.41 | 3.00 | 35% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.28–4.15 0.89–4.54 | 5.00 | 2.38 0.82–3.93 0.40–4.36 | 1.00 | 5.09 2.10–8.09 1.29–8.90 | 6.00 | 47% 18% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+