Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Radu Marian Petrescu
Goals
27%
25%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.111.592.70safe0.15–2.080.73–2.440.88–4.52safer0.00–2.330.50–2.670.40–5.00actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
28%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.594.808.38safe1.72–5.453.06–6.544.78–11.99safer1.23–5.942.59–7.013.82–12.95actual3.003.006.00
Total shots
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4214.6127.03safe8.49–16.3411.04–18.1719.54–34.51safer7.40–17.4310.09–19.1317.49–36.56actual10.0017.0027.00
Shots in box
28%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction7.689.6217.29safe4.73–10.626.94–12.3011.67–22.92safer3.90–11.456.20–13.0410.10–24.48actual7.007.0014.00
Blocked shots
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.223.416.63safe1.34–5.101.76–5.063.09–10.16safer0.79–5.641.26–5.552.06–11.20actual4.009.0013.00
Corners
33%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.385.289.66safe2.17–6.603.28–7.285.45–13.88safer1.60–7.172.74–7.814.34–14.98actual4.005.009.00
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction48.5352.10safe41.74–55.3245.31–58.88safer40.07–56.9943.64–60.55actual45.0055.00
Passes
53%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction447438884safe380–514371–504751–1018safer361–532354–521715–1054actual4755651040
Pass accuracy %
27%
68%
homeawayprediction68.9573.11safe64.92–72.9868.79–77.43safer63.63–74.2767.48–78.74
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1212.9325.04safe9.28–14.959.98–15.8719.26–30.83safer8.52–15.719.23–16.6217.76–32.33actual8.007.0015.00
Offsides
33%
24%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.653.09safe0.28–2.600.56–2.750.84–5.34safer0.00–2.900.28–3.030.25–5.93actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
36%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.194.16safe0.92–3.011.06–3.321.99–6.33safer0.66–3.270.78–3.611.43–6.88actual0.000.000.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
54%
16%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.252.475.73safe1.82–4.690.92–4.032.73–8.72safer1.43–5.080.49–4.451.92–9.53actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.15–2.08 0.00–2.33 | 0.00 | 1.59 0.73–2.44 0.50–2.67 | 0.00 | 2.70 0.88–4.52 0.40–5.00 | 0.00 | 27% 25% 48% |
| Shots on target | 3.59 1.72–5.45 1.23–5.94 | 3.00 | 4.80 3.06–6.54 2.59–7.01 | 3.00 | 8.38 4.78–11.99 3.82–12.95 | 6.00 | 28% 60% |
| Total shots | 12.42 8.49–16.34 7.40–17.43 | 10.00 | 14.61 11.04–18.17 10.09–19.13 | 17.00 | 27.03 19.54–34.51 17.49–36.56 | 27.00 | 30% 63% |
| Shots in box | 7.68 4.73–10.62 3.90–11.45 | 7.00 | 9.62 6.94–12.30 6.20–13.04 | 7.00 | 17.29 11.67–22.92 10.10–24.48 | 14.00 | 28% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 3.22 1.34–5.10 0.79–5.64 | 4.00 | 3.41 1.76–5.06 1.26–5.55 | 9.00 | 6.63 3.09–10.16 2.06–11.20 | 13.00 | 39% 16% 45% |
| Corners | 4.38 2.17–6.60 1.60–7.17 | 4.00 | 5.28 3.28–7.28 2.74–7.81 | 5.00 | 9.66 5.45–13.88 4.34–14.98 | 9.00 | 33% 55% |
| Possession % | 48.53 41.74–55.32 40.07–56.99 | 45.00 | 52.10 45.31–58.88 43.64–60.55 | 55.00 | — | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 447 380–514 361–532 | 475 | 438 371–504 354–521 | 565 | 884 751–1018 715–1054 | 1040 | 53% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.95 64.92–72.98 63.63–74.27 | — | 73.11 68.79–77.43 67.48–78.74 | — | — | — | 27% 68% |
| Fouls | 12.12 9.28–14.95 8.52–15.71 | 8.00 | 12.93 9.98–15.87 9.23–16.62 | 7.00 | 25.04 19.26–30.83 17.76–32.33 | 15.00 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.28–2.60 0.00–2.90 | 2.00 | 1.65 0.56–2.75 0.28–3.03 | 0.00 | 3.09 0.84–5.34 0.25–5.93 | 2.00 | 33% 24% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.92–3.01 0.66–3.27 | 0.00 | 2.19 1.06–3.32 0.78–3.61 | 0.00 | 4.16 1.99–6.33 1.43–6.88 | 0.00 | 36% 20% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.25 1.82–4.69 1.43–5.08 | 3.00 | 2.47 0.92–4.03 0.49–4.45 | 3.00 | 5.73 2.73–8.72 1.92–9.53 | 6.00 | 54% 16% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.