Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.192.50safe0.34–2.280.34–2.040.68–4.33safer0.09–2.530.11–2.270.20–4.81
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.563.988.54safe2.70–6.432.24–5.724.94–12.15safer2.21–6.921.77–6.193.98–13.10
Total shots
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1311.1625.29safe10.21–18.067.59–14.7217.80–32.78safer9.12–19.156.64–15.6815.75–34.83
Shots in box
63%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction8.486.6415.12safe5.54–11.433.96–9.329.50–20.75safer4.71–12.263.22–10.067.93–22.31
Blocked shots
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.912.916.83safe2.03–5.801.26–4.573.29–10.36safer1.49–6.340.77–5.062.26–11.40
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.524.159.67safe3.30–7.732.15–6.155.45–13.88safer2.73–8.311.62–6.684.35–14.99
Possession %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction53.4046.33safe46.61–60.1939.54–53.11safer44.94–61.8637.87–54.78
Passes
75%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction530451981safe463–597384–517847–1114safer445–615367–534811–1150
Pass accuracy %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction74.1274.95safe70.09–78.1570.62–79.27safer68.80–79.4469.31–80.58
Fouls
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2410.8821.12safe7.40–13.077.94–13.8315.33–26.90safer6.64–13.837.19–14.5713.83–28.40
Offsides
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.953.39safe0.29–2.610.85–3.041.14–5.65safer0.00–2.910.56–3.330.55–6.24
Yellow cards
28%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.492.043.53safe0.44–2.540.91–3.161.35–5.71safer0.18–2.810.62–3.460.79–6.26
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.095.71safe1.18–4.051.53–4.652.72–8.70safer0.80–4.441.11–5.071.90–9.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.34–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.19 0.34–2.04 0.11–2.27 | 2.50 0.68–4.33 0.20–4.81 | 39% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.56 2.70–6.43 2.21–6.92 | 3.98 2.24–5.72 1.77–6.19 | 8.54 4.94–12.15 3.98–13.10 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 14.13 10.21–18.06 9.12–19.15 | 11.16 7.59–14.72 6.64–15.68 | 25.29 17.80–32.78 15.75–34.83 | 69% 24% |
| Shots in box | 8.48 5.54–11.43 4.71–12.26 | 6.64 3.96–9.32 3.22–10.06 | 15.12 9.50–20.75 7.93–22.31 | 63% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 3.91 2.03–5.80 1.49–6.34 | 2.91 1.26–4.57 0.77–5.06 | 6.83 3.29–10.36 2.26–11.40 | 57% 15% 28% |
| Corners | 5.52 3.30–7.73 2.73–8.31 | 4.15 2.15–6.15 1.62–6.68 | 9.67 5.45–13.88 4.35–14.99 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 53.40 46.61–60.19 44.94–61.86 | 46.33 39.54–53.11 37.87–54.78 | — | 64% 32% |
| Passes | 530 463–597 445–615 | 451 384–517 367–534 | 981 847–1114 811–1150 | 75% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.12 70.09–78.15 68.80–79.44 | 74.95 70.62–79.27 69.31–80.58 | — | 43% 52% |
| Fouls | 10.24 7.40–13.07 6.64–13.83 | 10.88 7.94–13.83 7.19–14.57 | 21.12 15.33–26.90 13.83–28.40 | 40% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.45 0.29–2.61 0.00–2.91 | 1.95 0.85–3.04 0.56–3.33 | 3.39 1.14–5.65 0.55–6.24 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.44–2.54 0.18–2.81 | 2.04 0.91–3.16 0.62–3.46 | 3.53 1.35–5.71 0.79–6.26 | 28% 21% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.18–4.05 0.80–4.44 | 3.09 1.53–4.65 1.11–5.07 | 5.71 2.72–8.70 1.90–9.51 | 34% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.