Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.242.62safe0.42–2.350.38–2.090.80–4.44safer0.16–2.600.15–2.320.32–4.92
Shots on target
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.953.818.77safe3.09–6.822.07–5.565.16–12.37safer2.60–7.311.61–6.024.21–13.33
Total shots
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2710.8826.15safe11.34–19.197.31–14.4418.66–33.63safer10.25–20.296.36–15.4016.61–35.68
Shots in box
62%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction9.057.3616.42safe6.11–12.004.68–10.0410.79–22.04safer5.28–12.833.94–10.789.23–23.61
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.703.066.76safe1.81–5.581.41–4.723.22–10.30safer1.27–6.120.92–5.212.19–11.33
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.374.119.47safe3.15–7.582.11–6.115.26–13.69safer2.58–8.151.57–6.644.15–14.79
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.8849.42safe45.09–58.6842.64–56.21safer43.42–60.3440.97–57.88
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction498465963safe431–565399–532829–1097safer413–583381–549794–1132
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction73.5077.25safe69.47–77.5372.92–81.57safer68.18–78.8271.62–82.88
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1511.6622.81safe8.31–13.998.72–14.6117.03–28.60safer7.56–14.747.97–15.3615.53–30.10
Offsides
55%
21%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.293.32safe0.87–3.190.20–2.381.07–5.58safer0.57–3.490.00–2.670.48–6.17
Yellow cards
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.753.26safe0.46–2.560.62–2.881.08–5.44safer0.20–2.830.33–3.170.52–5.99
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.513.335.84safe1.08–3.951.77–4.892.85–8.84safer0.69–4.341.35–5.312.04–9.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.42–2.35 0.16–2.60 | 1.24 0.38–2.09 0.15–2.32 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.32–4.92 | 40% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.95 3.09–6.82 2.60–7.31 | 3.81 2.07–5.56 1.61–6.02 | 8.77 5.16–12.37 4.21–13.33 | 58% 29% |
| Total shots | 15.27 11.34–19.19 10.25–20.29 | 10.88 7.31–14.44 6.36–15.40 | 26.15 18.66–33.63 16.61–35.68 | 78% 17% |
| Shots in box | 9.05 6.11–12.00 5.28–12.83 | 7.36 4.68–10.04 3.94–10.78 | 16.42 10.79–22.04 9.23–23.61 | 62% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.70 1.81–5.58 1.27–6.12 | 3.06 1.41–4.72 0.92–5.21 | 6.76 3.22–10.30 2.19–11.33 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.37 3.15–7.58 2.58–8.15 | 4.11 2.11–6.11 1.57–6.64 | 9.47 5.26–13.69 4.15–14.79 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 51.88 45.09–58.68 43.42–60.34 | 49.42 42.64–56.21 40.97–57.88 | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 498 431–565 413–583 | 465 399–532 381–549 | 963 829–1097 794–1132 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.50 69.47–77.53 68.18–78.82 | 77.25 72.92–81.57 71.62–82.88 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 11.15 8.31–13.99 7.56–14.74 | 11.66 8.72–14.61 7.97–15.36 | 22.81 17.03–28.60 15.53–30.10 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.87–3.19 0.57–3.49 | 1.29 0.20–2.38 0.00–2.67 | 3.32 1.07–5.58 0.48–6.17 | 55% 21% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.46–2.56 0.20–2.83 | 1.75 0.62–2.88 0.33–3.17 | 3.26 1.08–5.44 0.52–5.99 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.51 1.08–3.95 0.69–4.34 | 3.33 1.77–4.89 1.35–5.31 | 5.84 2.85–8.84 2.04–9.65 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.