Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Joey Kooij
Goals
27%
27%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.372.36safe0.03–1.950.52–2.230.54–4.19safer0.00–2.210.27–2.480.04–4.69actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
29%
14%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.184.207.38safe1.32–5.042.49–5.903.81–10.94safer0.82–5.542.02–6.372.85–11.91actual5.008.0013.00
Total shots
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2512.5822.83safe6.55–13.959.20–15.9515.74–29.91safer5.52–14.988.27–16.8913.78–31.87actual13.0013.0026.00
Shots in box
42%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction6.837.1213.95safe4.32–9.354.82–9.429.14–18.77safer3.45–10.214.02–10.227.48–20.43actual9.0010.0019.00
Blocked shots
43%
18%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.702.595.29safe1.11–4.281.18–4.012.29–8.29safer0.58–4.820.69–4.491.27–9.31actual3.000.003.00
Corners
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.504.077.57safe1.29–5.712.09–6.053.39–11.75safer0.70–6.301.55–6.592.25–12.89actual3.002.005.00
Possession %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction43.9555.88safe37.63–50.2749.56–62.20safer36.04–51.8747.96–63.79actual41.0059.00
Passes
15%
84%
homeawaytotalprediction327445772safe261–392380–509642–901safer244–410363–527606–937actual353506859
Pass accuracy %
17%
79%
homeawayprediction70.9677.99safe66.75–75.1873.48–82.49safer65.45–76.4872.15–83.83
Fouls
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction16.7213.0929.81safe13.86–19.5810.15–16.0424.01–35.62safer12.98–20.469.23–16.9622.21–37.42actual24.0012.0036.00
Offsides
50%
21%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.653.83safe0.97–3.390.49–2.811.46–6.20safer0.62–3.730.16–3.150.78–6.88actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
48%
20%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.371.944.31safe1.31–3.430.82–3.062.13–6.49safer1.04–3.700.53–3.351.57–7.05actual5.002.007.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.110.16safe0.00–0.200.00–0.300.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.440.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
42%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.702.645.35safe1.29–4.121.09–4.202.38–8.32safer0.90–4.510.66–4.631.56–9.14actual6.004.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.03–1.95 0.00–2.21 | 1.00 | 1.37 0.52–2.23 0.27–2.48 | 2.00 | 2.36 0.54–4.19 0.04–4.69 | 3.00 | 27% 27% 46% |
| Shots on target | 3.18 1.32–5.04 0.82–5.54 | 5.00 | 4.20 2.49–5.90 2.02–6.37 | 8.00 | 7.38 3.81–10.94 2.85–11.91 | 13.00 | 29% 14% 57% |
| Total shots | 10.25 6.55–13.95 5.52–14.98 | 13.00 | 12.58 9.20–15.95 8.27–16.89 | 13.00 | 22.83 15.74–29.91 13.78–31.87 | 26.00 | 28% 65% |
| Shots in box | 6.83 4.32–9.35 3.45–10.21 | 9.00 | 7.12 4.82–9.42 4.02–10.22 | 10.00 | 13.95 9.14–18.77 7.48–20.43 | 19.00 | 42% 48% |
| Blocked shots | 2.70 1.11–4.28 0.58–4.82 | 3.00 | 2.59 1.18–4.01 0.69–4.49 | 0.00 | 5.29 2.29–8.29 1.27–9.31 | 3.00 | 43% 18% 39% |
| Corners | 3.50 1.29–5.71 0.70–6.30 | 3.00 | 4.07 2.09–6.05 1.55–6.59 | 2.00 | 7.57 3.39–11.75 2.25–12.89 | 5.00 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Possession % | 43.95 37.63–50.27 36.04–51.87 | 41.00 | 55.88 49.56–62.20 47.96–63.79 | 59.00 | — | — | 21% 75% |
| Passes | 327 261–392 244–410 | 353 | 445 380–509 363–527 | 506 | 772 642–901 606–937 | 859 | 15% 84% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.96 66.75–75.18 65.45–76.48 | — | 77.99 73.48–82.49 72.15–83.83 | — | — | — | 17% 79% |
| Fouls | 16.72 13.86–19.58 12.98–20.46 | 24.00 | 13.09 10.15–16.04 9.23–16.96 | 12.00 | 29.81 24.01–35.62 22.21–37.42 | 36.00 | 72% 22% |
| Offsides | 2.18 0.97–3.39 0.62–3.73 | 1.00 | 1.65 0.49–2.81 0.16–3.15 | 1.00 | 3.83 1.46–6.20 0.78–6.88 | 2.00 | 50% 21% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 2.37 1.31–3.43 1.04–3.70 | 5.00 | 1.94 0.82–3.06 0.53–3.35 | 2.00 | 4.31 2.13–6.49 1.57–7.05 | 7.00 | 48% 20% 32% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.70 1.29–4.12 0.90–4.51 | 6.00 | 2.64 1.09–4.20 0.66–4.63 | 4.00 | 5.35 2.38–8.32 1.56–9.14 | 10.00 | 42% 18% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.