Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Martin Matosa
Goals
57%
24%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.700.882.59safe0.74–2.670.03–1.740.76–4.41safer0.48–2.930.00–1.990.26–4.92actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
56%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.583.678.26safe2.73–6.441.97–5.384.69–11.82safer2.23–6.941.50–5.853.73–12.79actual4.001.005.00
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4710.9824.45safe9.77–17.187.60–14.3617.37–31.54safer8.74–18.216.67–15.2915.41–33.50actual14.005.0019.00
Shots in box
67%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction7.805.6813.48safe5.28–10.323.38–7.988.66–18.30safer4.42–11.182.58–8.787.00–19.96actual7.003.0010.00
Blocked shots
60%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.492.355.84safe1.90–5.070.94–3.762.84–8.83safer1.37–5.600.45–4.251.82–9.85actual4.003.007.00
Corners
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.433.579.01safe3.23–7.641.60–5.554.82–13.19safer2.63–8.231.06–6.093.69–14.32actual10.002.0012.00
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.0745.72safe47.76–60.3939.40–52.04safer46.16–61.9937.81–53.64actual56.0044.00
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction453388842safe388–519323–453712–971safer370–536306–470676–1007actual512405917
Pass accuracy %
62%
34%
homeawayprediction80.4677.55safe76.24–84.6773.04–82.06safer74.94–85.9771.71–83.39
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5712.5325.10safe9.72–15.439.58–15.4719.30–30.90safer8.83–16.328.66–16.3917.49–32.71actual10.009.0019.00
Offsides
41%
23%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.573.26safe0.48–2.890.41–2.730.88–5.63safer0.13–3.240.08–3.070.21–6.31actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.044.04safe0.95–3.060.92–3.161.87–6.22safer0.67–3.330.63–3.451.30–6.78actual1.000.001.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.090.12safe0.00–0.190.00–0.280.00–0.47safer0.00–0.340.00–0.430.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.522.915.42safe1.10–3.931.35–4.462.45–8.39safer0.71–4.320.92–4.891.63–9.21actual1.002.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.74–2.67 0.48–2.93 | 2.00 | 0.88 0.03–1.74 0.00–1.99 | 0.00 | 2.59 0.76–4.41 0.26–4.92 | 2.00 | 57% 24% 19% |
| Shots on target | 4.58 2.73–6.44 2.23–6.94 | 4.00 | 3.67 1.97–5.38 1.50–5.85 | 1.00 | 8.26 4.69–11.82 3.73–12.79 | 5.00 | 56% 13% 31% |
| Total shots | 13.47 9.77–17.18 8.74–18.21 | 14.00 | 10.98 7.60–14.36 6.67–15.29 | 5.00 | 24.45 17.37–31.54 15.41–33.50 | 19.00 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 7.80 5.28–10.32 4.42–11.18 | 7.00 | 5.68 3.38–7.98 2.58–8.78 | 3.00 | 13.48 8.66–18.30 7.00–19.96 | 10.00 | 67% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 1.90–5.07 1.37–5.60 | 4.00 | 2.35 0.94–3.76 0.45–4.25 | 3.00 | 5.84 2.84–8.83 1.82–9.85 | 7.00 | 60% 15% 25% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.23–7.64 2.63–8.23 | 10.00 | 3.57 1.60–5.55 1.06–6.09 | 2.00 | 9.01 4.82–13.19 3.69–14.32 | 12.00 | 67% 21% |
| Possession % | 54.07 47.76–60.39 46.16–61.99 | 56.00 | 45.72 39.40–52.04 37.81–53.64 | 44.00 | — | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 453 388–519 370–536 | 512 | 388 323–453 306–470 | 405 | 842 712–971 676–1007 | 917 | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.46 76.24–84.67 74.94–85.97 | — | 77.55 73.04–82.06 71.71–83.39 | — | — | — | 62% 34% |
| Fouls | 12.57 9.72–15.43 8.83–16.32 | 10.00 | 12.53 9.58–15.47 8.66–16.39 | 9.00 | 25.10 19.30–30.90 17.49–32.71 | 19.00 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.48–2.89 0.13–3.24 | 0.00 | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.08–3.07 | 3.00 | 3.26 0.88–5.63 0.21–6.31 | 3.00 | 41% 23% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.95–3.06 0.67–3.33 | 1.00 | 2.04 0.92–3.16 0.63–3.45 | 0.00 | 4.04 1.87–6.22 1.30–6.78 | 1.00 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.52 1.10–3.93 0.71–4.32 | 1.00 | 2.91 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.89 | 2.00 | 5.42 2.45–8.39 1.63–9.21 | 3.00 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.