UEFA Nations League·League C - 1·
UEFA Nations League·League C - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Sander van der Eijk
Goals
37%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.282.60safe0.35–2.280.42–2.140.77–4.42safer0.09–2.540.18–2.390.27–4.93actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
46%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.043.807.85safe2.19–5.902.10–5.514.29–11.41safer1.69–6.401.63–5.983.32–12.38actual7.007.0014.00
Total shots
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1410.6422.78safe8.44–15.847.27–14.0215.70–29.86safer7.40–16.876.33–14.9513.74–31.83actual10.0015.0025.00
Shots in box
46%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction6.936.7513.68safe4.41–9.454.45–9.058.86–18.50safer3.55–10.313.65–9.857.20–20.16actual6.0011.0017.00
Blocked shots
53%
17%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.142.475.61safe1.56–4.731.06–3.882.61–8.61safer1.02–5.260.57–4.371.59–9.63actual0.004.004.00
Corners
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.924.109.02safe2.71–7.122.13–6.084.84–13.21safer2.12–7.721.59–6.623.71–14.34actual5.004.009.00
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction49.1250.38safe42.80–55.4444.06–56.70safer41.21–57.0342.46–58.30actual52.0048.00
Passes
40%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction402430832safe337–468366–495702–962safer319–485348–512667–998actual414421835
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction78.8379.08safe74.62–83.0574.57–83.59safer73.32–84.3573.24–84.92
Fouls
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3715.2529.62safe11.51–17.2312.30–18.1923.81–35.42safer10.63–18.1111.38–19.1122.01–37.22actual10.0017.0027.00
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.913.82safe0.71–3.130.74–3.071.45–6.20safer0.36–3.470.41–3.400.78–6.87actual3.002.005.00
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.284.12safe0.78–2.901.16–3.401.95–6.30safer0.51–3.170.87–3.691.39–6.86actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.130.20safe0.00–0.220.00–0.330.00–0.54safer0.00–0.370.00–0.470.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.512.895.40safe1.10–3.931.34–4.452.44–8.37safer0.71–4.320.91–4.881.61–9.19actual5.006.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.35–2.28 0.09–2.54 | 1.00 | 1.28 0.42–2.14 0.18–2.39 | 2.00 | 2.60 0.77–4.42 0.27–4.93 | 3.00 | 37% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.04 2.19–5.90 1.69–6.40 | 7.00 | 3.80 2.10–5.51 1.63–5.98 | 7.00 | 7.85 4.29–11.41 3.32–12.38 | 14.00 | 46% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 12.14 8.44–15.84 7.40–16.87 | 10.00 | 10.64 7.27–14.02 6.33–14.95 | 15.00 | 22.78 15.70–29.86 13.74–31.83 | 25.00 | 58% 34% |
| Shots in box | 6.93 4.41–9.45 3.55–10.31 | 6.00 | 6.75 4.45–9.05 3.65–9.85 | 11.00 | 13.68 8.86–18.50 7.20–20.16 | 17.00 | 46% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.14 1.56–4.73 1.02–5.26 | 0.00 | 2.47 1.06–3.88 0.57–4.37 | 4.00 | 5.61 2.61–8.61 1.59–9.63 | 4.00 | 53% 17% 31% |
| Corners | 4.92 2.71–7.12 2.12–7.72 | 5.00 | 4.10 2.13–6.08 1.59–6.62 | 4.00 | 9.02 4.84–13.21 3.71–14.34 | 9.00 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Possession % | 49.12 42.80–55.44 41.21–57.03 | 52.00 | 50.38 44.06–56.70 42.46–58.30 | 48.00 | — | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 402 337–468 319–485 | 414 | 430 366–495 348–512 | 421 | 832 702–962 667–998 | 835 | 40% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.83 74.62–83.05 73.32–84.35 | — | 79.08 74.57–83.59 73.24–84.92 | — | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 14.37 11.51–17.23 10.63–18.11 | 10.00 | 15.25 12.30–18.19 11.38–19.11 | 17.00 | 29.62 23.81–35.42 22.01–37.22 | 27.00 | 40% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.92 0.71–3.13 0.36–3.47 | 3.00 | 1.91 0.74–3.07 0.41–3.40 | 2.00 | 3.82 1.45–6.20 0.78–6.87 | 5.00 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.78–2.90 0.51–3.17 | 2.00 | 2.28 1.16–3.40 0.87–3.69 | 2.00 | 4.12 1.95–6.30 1.39–6.86 | 4.00 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.51 1.10–3.93 0.71–4.32 | 5.00 | 2.89 1.34–4.45 0.91–4.88 | 6.00 | 5.40 2.44–8.37 1.61–9.19 | 11.00 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.