Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Genc Nuza
Goals
50%
27%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.440.882.33safe0.48–2.410.03–1.740.51–4.15safer0.22–2.670.00–1.990.00–4.66actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
45%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.623.427.05safe1.77–5.481.72–5.133.48–10.61safer1.27–5.981.25–5.602.52–11.58actual1.004.005.00
Total shots
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5711.2622.83safe7.87–15.277.88–14.6415.75–29.91safer6.84–16.306.95–15.5713.79–31.87actual5.0010.0015.00
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction7.446.5013.95safe4.93–9.964.20–8.819.13–18.76safer4.06–10.823.41–9.607.47–20.43actual4.005.009.00
Blocked shots
47%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.922.575.49safe1.34–4.511.15–3.982.49–8.49safer0.81–5.040.67–4.471.47–9.51actual0.002.002.00
Corners
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.553.668.21safe2.34–6.751.68–5.644.02–12.39safer1.75–7.351.14–6.172.89–13.52actual4.004.008.00
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction55.6844.77safe49.37–62.0038.45–51.08safer47.77–63.6036.85–52.68actual44.0056.00
Passes
69%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction427368795safe362–493303–432665–925safer344–510286–450630–960actual333429762
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction74.4768.85safe70.25–78.6864.35–73.36safer68.95–79.9863.02–74.69
Fouls
18%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3519.1833.53safe11.49–17.2116.23–22.1227.73–39.33safer10.61–18.0915.31–23.0425.92–41.14actual15.0024.0039.00
Offsides
44%
23%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.563.35safe0.59–3.010.39–2.720.98–5.73safer0.24–3.350.06–3.050.30–6.40actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
24%
18%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.762.694.46safe0.71–2.821.57–3.812.28–6.63safer0.44–3.091.28–4.101.72–7.19actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.150.22safe0.00–0.230.00–0.340.00–0.57safer0.00–0.380.00–0.480.00–0.87actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
32%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.402.935.33safe0.99–3.821.38–4.492.37–8.30safer0.60–4.210.95–4.921.55–9.12actual4.000.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.48–2.41 0.22–2.67 | 0.00 | 0.88 0.03–1.74 0.00–1.99 | 0.00 | 2.33 0.51–4.15 0.00–4.66 | 0.00 | 50% 27% 23% |
| Shots on target | 3.62 1.77–5.48 1.27–5.98 | 1.00 | 3.42 1.72–5.13 1.25–5.60 | 4.00 | 7.05 3.48–10.61 2.52–11.58 | 5.00 | 45% 15% 39% |
| Total shots | 11.57 7.87–15.27 6.84–16.30 | 5.00 | 11.26 7.88–14.64 6.95–15.57 | 10.00 | 22.83 15.75–29.91 13.79–31.87 | 15.00 | 48% 43% |
| Shots in box | 7.44 4.93–9.96 4.06–10.82 | 4.00 | 6.50 4.20–8.81 3.41–9.60 | 5.00 | 13.95 9.13–18.76 7.47–20.43 | 9.00 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 2.92 1.34–4.51 0.81–5.04 | 0.00 | 2.57 1.15–3.98 0.67–4.47 | 2.00 | 5.49 2.49–8.49 1.47–9.51 | 2.00 | 47% 17% 35% |
| Corners | 4.55 2.34–6.75 1.75–7.35 | 4.00 | 3.66 1.68–5.64 1.14–6.17 | 4.00 | 8.21 4.02–12.39 2.89–13.52 | 8.00 | 55% 14% 31% |
| Possession % | 55.68 49.37–62.00 47.77–63.60 | 44.00 | 44.77 38.45–51.08 36.85–52.68 | 56.00 | — | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 427 362–493 344–510 | 333 | 368 303–432 286–450 | 429 | 795 665–925 630–960 | 762 | 69% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.47 70.25–78.68 68.95–79.98 | — | 68.85 64.35–73.36 63.02–74.69 | — | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 14.35 11.49–17.21 10.61–18.09 | 15.00 | 19.18 16.23–22.12 15.31–23.04 | 24.00 | 33.53 27.73–39.33 25.92–41.14 | 39.00 | 18% 77% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.59–3.01 0.24–3.35 | 3.00 | 1.56 0.39–2.72 0.06–3.05 | 1.00 | 3.35 0.98–5.73 0.30–6.40 | 4.00 | 44% 23% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.82 0.44–3.09 | 2.00 | 2.69 1.57–3.81 1.28–4.10 | 3.00 | 4.46 2.28–6.63 1.72–7.19 | 5.00 | 24% 18% 58% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.48 | 0.00 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.87 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.40 0.99–3.82 0.60–4.21 | 4.00 | 2.93 1.38–4.49 0.95–4.92 | 0.00 | 5.33 2.37–8.30 1.55–9.12 | 4.00 | 32% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+