Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Michal Ocenas
Goals
36%
29%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.101.062.16safe0.13–2.060.20–1.920.33–3.98safer0.00–2.320.00–2.160.00–4.48actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
54%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.593.798.38safe2.73–6.442.09–5.504.82–11.94safer2.23–6.941.62–5.973.85–12.91actual0.005.005.00
Total shots
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1011.0624.16safe9.40–16.817.68–14.4417.08–31.25safer8.37–17.846.75–15.3715.12–33.21actual8.0018.0026.00
Shots in box
61%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction7.906.3714.27safe5.38–10.414.07–8.679.45–19.08safer4.52–11.283.27–9.477.79–20.75actual6.0011.0017.00
Blocked shots
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.352.966.32safe1.77–4.941.55–4.383.32–9.31safer1.23–5.471.06–4.862.30–10.33actual3.005.008.00
Corners
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.014.389.39safe2.80–7.222.40–6.365.21–13.58safer2.21–7.811.87–6.904.08–14.71actual4.0011.0015.00
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction56.0544.75safe49.74–62.3738.43–51.07safer48.14–63.9736.83–52.67actual33.0067.00
Passes
63%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction434394828safe369–500329–459698–958safer351–517312–476663–993actual264528792
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction69.9570.28safe65.73–74.1665.77–74.79safer64.43–75.4664.44–76.12
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3313.3925.72safe9.47–15.1910.45–16.3419.92–31.53safer8.59–16.079.53–17.2618.12–33.33actual16.0012.0028.00
Offsides
53%
21%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.363.41safe0.84–3.250.20–2.521.03–5.78safer0.49–3.600.00–2.860.36–6.46actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.742.063.80safe0.68–2.790.94–3.181.62–5.98safer0.41–3.070.65–3.471.06–6.54actual2.004.006.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
31%
18%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.272.855.11safe0.85–3.681.29–4.402.15–8.08safer0.46–4.070.86–4.831.32–8.90actual5.000.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.10 0.13–2.06 0.00–2.32 | 0.00 | 1.06 0.20–1.92 0.00–2.16 | 0.00 | 2.16 0.33–3.98 0.00–4.48 | 0.00 | 36% 29% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.59 2.73–6.44 2.23–6.94 | 0.00 | 3.79 2.09–5.50 1.62–5.97 | 5.00 | 8.38 4.82–11.94 3.85–12.91 | 5.00 | 54% 14% 33% |
| Total shots | 13.10 9.40–16.81 8.37–17.84 | 8.00 | 11.06 7.68–14.44 6.75–15.37 | 18.00 | 24.16 17.08–31.25 15.12–33.21 | 26.00 | 62% 30% |
| Shots in box | 7.90 5.38–10.41 4.52–11.28 | 6.00 | 6.37 4.07–8.67 3.27–9.47 | 11.00 | 14.27 9.45–19.08 7.79–20.75 | 17.00 | 61% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.35 1.77–4.94 1.23–5.47 | 3.00 | 2.96 1.55–4.38 1.06–4.86 | 5.00 | 6.32 3.32–9.31 2.30–10.33 | 8.00 | 48% 16% 36% |
| Corners | 5.01 2.80–7.22 2.21–7.81 | 4.00 | 4.38 2.40–6.36 1.87–6.90 | 11.00 | 9.39 5.21–13.58 4.08–14.71 | 15.00 | 52% 36% |
| Possession % | 56.05 49.74–62.37 48.14–63.97 | 33.00 | 44.75 38.43–51.07 36.83–52.67 | 67.00 | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 434 369–500 351–517 | 264 | 394 329–459 312–476 | 528 | 828 698–958 663–993 | 792 | 63% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.95 65.73–74.16 64.43–75.46 | — | 70.28 65.77–74.79 64.44–76.12 | — | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 12.33 9.47–15.19 8.59–16.07 | 16.00 | 13.39 10.45–16.34 9.53–17.26 | 12.00 | 25.72 19.92–31.53 18.12–33.33 | 28.00 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.84–3.25 0.49–3.60 | 0.00 | 1.36 0.20–2.52 0.00–2.86 | 1.00 | 3.41 1.03–5.78 0.36–6.46 | 1.00 | 53% 21% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.68–2.79 0.41–3.07 | 2.00 | 2.06 0.94–3.18 0.65–3.47 | 4.00 | 3.80 1.62–5.98 1.06–6.54 | 6.00 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.27 0.85–3.68 0.46–4.07 | 5.00 | 2.85 1.29–4.40 0.86–4.83 | 0.00 | 5.11 2.15–8.08 1.32–8.90 | 5.00 | 31% 18% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.