UEFA Nations League·League C - 2·
UEFA Nations League·League C - 2·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Enea Jorgji
Goals
38%
25%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.402.83safe0.47–2.390.54–2.261.00–4.65safer0.21–2.650.29–2.500.50–5.16actual0.003.003.00
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.093.588.67safe3.23–6.941.87–5.295.10–12.23safer2.73–7.441.40–5.754.14–13.20actual1.004.005.00
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction13.389.6923.07safe9.68–17.086.32–13.0715.99–30.16safer8.65–18.115.38–14.0014.03–32.12actual5.0013.0018.00
Shots in box
43%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction7.447.6015.04safe4.93–9.965.30–9.9010.23–19.86safer4.06–10.824.50–10.708.56–21.52actual4.0010.0014.00
Blocked shots
44%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.163.006.16safe1.57–4.741.59–4.423.16–9.16safer1.04–5.271.10–4.902.14–10.18actual3.004.007.00
Corners
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.374.449.81safe3.17–7.582.46–6.415.63–13.99safer2.57–8.171.92–6.954.49–15.13actual2.002.004.00
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction49.3751.45safe43.05–55.6945.14–57.77safer41.45–57.2843.54–59.37actual60.0040.00
Passes
38%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction408443851safe343–473378–508721–981safer325–491361–525686–1016actual6304041034
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction68.0473.82safe63.83–72.2669.32–78.33safer62.53–73.5667.99–79.66
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1912.7023.90safe8.34–14.059.76–15.6518.10–29.70safer7.45–14.948.84–16.5716.29–31.50actual11.0013.0024.00
Offsides
44%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.603.45safe0.63–3.050.44–2.771.08–5.82safer0.29–3.400.11–3.100.40–6.50actual2.004.006.00
Yellow cards
34%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.154.02safe0.82–2.931.03–3.271.85–6.20safer0.55–3.200.74–3.561.28–6.76actual2.004.006.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.120.22safe0.00–0.260.00–0.310.00–0.57safer0.00–0.410.00–0.460.00–0.87actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.433.305.73safe1.02–3.851.74–4.852.76–8.70safer0.63–4.241.31–5.281.94–9.52actual1.001.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.47–2.39 0.21–2.65 | 0.00 | 1.40 0.54–2.26 0.29–2.50 | 3.00 | 2.83 1.00–4.65 0.50–5.16 | 3.00 | 38% 25% 37% |
| Shots on target | 5.09 3.23–6.94 2.73–7.44 | 1.00 | 3.58 1.87–5.29 1.40–5.75 | 4.00 | 8.67 5.10–12.23 4.14–13.20 | 5.00 | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 13.38 9.68–17.08 8.65–18.11 | 5.00 | 9.69 6.32–13.07 5.38–14.00 | 13.00 | 23.07 15.99–30.16 14.03–32.12 | 18.00 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 7.44 4.93–9.96 4.06–10.82 | 4.00 | 7.60 5.30–9.90 4.50–10.70 | 10.00 | 15.04 10.23–19.86 8.56–21.52 | 14.00 | 43% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.16 1.57–4.74 1.04–5.27 | 3.00 | 3.00 1.59–4.42 1.10–4.90 | 4.00 | 6.16 3.16–9.16 2.14–10.18 | 7.00 | 44% 16% 39% |
| Corners | 5.37 3.17–7.58 2.57–8.17 | 2.00 | 4.44 2.46–6.41 1.92–6.95 | 2.00 | 9.81 5.63–13.99 4.49–15.13 | 4.00 | 55% 32% |
| Possession % | 49.37 43.05–55.69 41.45–57.28 | 60.00 | 51.45 45.14–57.77 43.54–59.37 | 40.00 | — | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 408 343–473 325–491 | 630 | 443 378–508 361–525 | 404 | 851 721–981 686–1016 | 1034 | 38% 62% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.04 63.83–72.26 62.53–73.56 | — | 73.82 69.32–78.33 67.99–79.66 | — | — | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 11.19 8.34–14.05 7.45–14.94 | 11.00 | 12.70 9.76–15.65 8.84–16.57 | 13.00 | 23.90 18.10–29.70 16.29–31.50 | 24.00 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.63–3.05 0.29–3.40 | 2.00 | 1.60 0.44–2.77 0.11–3.10 | 4.00 | 3.45 1.08–5.82 0.40–6.50 | 6.00 | 44% 22% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.82–2.93 0.55–3.20 | 2.00 | 2.15 1.03–3.27 0.74–3.56 | 4.00 | 4.02 1.85–6.20 1.28–6.76 | 6.00 | 34% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.87 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.43 1.02–3.85 0.63–4.24 | 1.00 | 3.30 1.74–4.85 1.31–5.28 | 1.00 | 5.73 2.76–8.70 1.94–9.52 | 2.00 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.