Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Antoni Bandic
Goals
50%
27%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.410.852.27safe0.45–2.380.00–1.710.44–4.09safer0.19–2.630.00–1.940.00–4.57actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.983.418.39safe3.11–6.841.67–5.154.78–11.99safer2.62–7.331.20–5.623.83–12.95actual5.002.007.00
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction13.979.9223.89safe10.04–17.896.36–13.4916.40–31.38safer8.95–18.995.40–14.4414.35–33.43actual17.009.0026.00
Shots in box
66%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction8.426.3314.75safe5.47–11.363.65–9.019.13–20.37safer4.65–12.192.91–9.757.56–21.94actual12.004.0016.00
Blocked shots
65%
15%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction3.361.955.30safe1.48–5.240.29–3.601.77–8.84safer0.93–5.780.00–4.090.73–9.87actual4.003.007.00
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.613.779.38safe3.40–7.831.77–5.775.17–13.59safer2.82–8.401.23–6.304.06–14.70actual8.001.009.00
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction60.9738.71safe54.18–67.7631.92–45.49safer52.51–69.4330.25–47.16actual62.0038.00
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction551347897safe483–618280–413764–1031safer465–636263–431728–1067actual519334853
Pass accuracy %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction78.3971.21safe74.36–82.4266.88–75.53safer73.07–83.7165.57–76.84
Fouls
41%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9515.7630.71safe12.11–17.7912.81–18.7024.93–36.49safer11.36–18.5512.07–19.4523.42–38.00actual16.008.0024.00
Offsides
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.021.863.89safe0.86–3.180.77–2.951.64–6.14safer0.56–3.480.49–3.241.05–6.73actual5.001.006.00
Yellow cards
36%
19%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.282.554.83safe1.24–3.331.42–3.682.66–7.00safer0.97–3.591.14–3.972.11–7.56actual3.001.004.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.110.22safe0.00–0.270.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.420.00–0.430.00–0.85actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.453.265.71safe1.02–3.891.70–4.812.72–8.70safer0.63–4.281.28–5.241.91–9.51actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.45–2.38 0.19–2.63 | 1.00 | 0.85 0.00–1.71 0.00–1.94 | 1.00 | 2.27 0.44–4.09 0.00–4.57 | 2.00 | 50% 27% 23% |
| Shots on target | 4.98 3.11–6.84 2.62–7.33 | 5.00 | 3.41 1.67–5.15 1.20–5.62 | 2.00 | 8.39 4.78–11.99 3.83–12.95 | 7.00 | 64% 24% |
| Total shots | 13.97 10.04–17.89 8.95–18.99 | 17.00 | 9.92 6.36–13.49 5.40–14.44 | 9.00 | 23.89 16.40–31.38 14.35–33.43 | 26.00 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 8.42 5.47–11.36 4.65–12.19 | 12.00 | 6.33 3.65–9.01 2.91–9.75 | 4.00 | 14.75 9.13–20.37 7.56–21.94 | 16.00 | 66% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 3.36 1.48–5.24 0.93–5.78 | 4.00 | 1.95 0.29–3.60 0.00–4.09 | 3.00 | 5.30 1.77–8.84 0.73–9.87 | 7.00 | 65% 15% 20% |
| Corners | 5.61 3.40–7.83 2.82–8.40 | 8.00 | 3.77 1.77–5.77 1.23–6.30 | 1.00 | 9.38 5.17–13.59 4.06–14.70 | 9.00 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 60.97 54.18–67.76 52.51–69.43 | 62.00 | 38.71 31.92–45.49 30.25–47.16 | 38.00 | — | — | 90% |
| Passes | 551 483–618 465–636 | 519 | 347 280–413 263–431 | 334 | 897 764–1031 728–1067 | 853 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.39 74.36–82.42 73.07–83.71 | — | 71.21 66.88–75.53 65.57–76.84 | — | — | — | 81% 16% |
| Fouls | 14.95 12.11–17.79 11.36–18.55 | 16.00 | 15.76 12.81–18.70 12.07–19.45 | 8.00 | 30.71 24.93–36.49 23.42–38.00 | 24.00 | 41% 52% |
| Offsides | 2.02 0.86–3.18 0.56–3.48 | 5.00 | 1.86 0.77–2.95 0.49–3.24 | 1.00 | 3.89 1.64–6.14 1.05–6.73 | 6.00 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.28 1.24–3.33 0.97–3.59 | 3.00 | 2.55 1.42–3.68 1.14–3.97 | 1.00 | 4.83 2.66–7.00 2.11–7.56 | 4.00 | 36% 19% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.02–3.89 0.63–4.28 | 1.00 | 3.26 1.70–4.81 1.28–5.24 | 3.00 | 5.71 2.72–8.70 1.91–9.51 | 4.00 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+