UEFA Nations League·League C - 5·
UEFA Nations League·League C - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
59%
23%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.750.852.60safe0.78–2.720.00–1.710.78–4.42safer0.53–2.970.00–1.930.30–4.90
Shots on target
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.223.028.24safe3.35–7.081.28–4.774.63–11.85safer2.86–7.570.82–5.233.68–12.80
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction15.569.5325.09safe11.64–19.495.97–13.0917.61–32.58safer10.55–20.585.01–14.0515.56–34.63
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction9.516.1915.71safe6.57–12.463.51–8.8710.08–21.33safer5.74–13.292.77–9.618.52–22.90
Blocked shots
63%
13%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.192.776.96safe2.30–6.071.12–4.423.42–10.49safer1.76–6.610.63–4.922.39–11.53
Corners
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.123.599.72safe3.91–8.341.59–5.595.50–13.93safer3.33–8.911.06–6.134.39–15.04
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction56.0144.67safe49.22–62.8037.89–51.46safer47.55–64.4736.22–53.13
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction508389898safe441–576323–456764–1031safer423–594305–473728–1067
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction70.8368.61safe66.80–74.8664.28–72.93safer65.51–76.1662.97–74.24
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7412.5224.26safe8.90–14.579.58–15.4618.48–30.04safer8.14–15.338.83–16.2116.97–31.54
Offsides
40%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.422.93safe0.35–2.670.33–2.510.68–5.18safer0.05–2.970.04–2.800.09–5.77
Yellow cards
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.562.023.58safe0.51–2.610.89–3.151.41–5.76safer0.25–2.880.60–3.440.85–6.32
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
25%
16%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.303.355.65safe0.86–3.731.80–4.912.66–8.64safer0.47–4.121.37–5.331.84–9.45
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.75 0.78–2.72 0.53–2.97 | 0.85 0.00–1.71 0.00–1.93 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.30–4.90 | 59% 23% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.22 3.35–7.08 2.86–7.57 | 3.02 1.28–4.77 0.82–5.23 | 8.24 4.63–11.85 3.68–12.80 | 72% 17% |
| Total shots | 15.56 11.64–19.49 10.55–20.58 | 9.53 5.97–13.09 5.01–14.05 | 25.09 17.61–32.58 15.56–34.63 | 87% |
| Shots in box | 9.51 6.57–12.46 5.74–13.29 | 6.19 3.51–8.87 2.77–9.61 | 15.71 10.08–21.33 8.52–22.90 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.19 2.30–6.07 1.76–6.61 | 2.77 1.12–4.42 0.63–4.92 | 6.96 3.42–10.49 2.39–11.53 | 63% 13% 23% |
| Corners | 6.12 3.91–8.34 3.33–8.91 | 3.59 1.59–5.59 1.06–6.13 | 9.72 5.50–13.93 4.39–15.04 | 74% 16% |
| Possession % | 56.01 49.22–62.80 47.55–64.47 | 44.67 37.89–51.46 36.22–53.13 | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 508 441–576 423–594 | 389 323–456 305–473 | 898 764–1031 728–1067 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.83 66.80–74.86 65.51–76.16 | 68.61 64.28–72.93 62.97–74.24 | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 11.74 8.90–14.57 8.14–15.33 | 12.52 9.58–15.46 8.83–16.21 | 24.26 18.48–30.04 16.97–31.54 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.51 0.35–2.67 0.05–2.97 | 1.42 0.33–2.51 0.04–2.80 | 2.93 0.68–5.18 0.09–5.77 | 40% 25% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.61 0.25–2.88 | 2.02 0.89–3.15 0.60–3.44 | 3.58 1.41–5.76 0.85–6.32 | 30% 21% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.30 0.86–3.73 0.47–4.12 | 3.35 1.80–4.91 1.37–5.33 | 5.65 2.66–8.64 1.84–9.45 | 25% 16% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.