UEFA Nations League·League B - 2·
UEFA Nations League·League B - 2·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Nenad Minakovic
Goals
32%
27%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.302.45safe0.18–2.110.45–2.160.62–4.27safer0.00–2.370.20–2.410.12–4.78actual0.003.003.00
Shots on target
41%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.914.027.93safe2.05–5.772.32–5.734.37–11.50safer1.56–6.271.85–6.203.40–12.47actual0.009.009.00
Total shots
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1312.0323.15safe7.42–14.838.65–15.4016.07–30.24safer6.39–15.867.72–16.3414.11–32.20actual2.0023.0025.00
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction7.627.7115.33safe5.10–10.135.41–10.0110.51–20.15safer4.24–11.004.62–10.818.85–21.81actual1.009.0010.00
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.183.336.51safe1.60–4.761.91–4.743.51–9.51safer1.06–5.301.43–5.232.49–10.53actual0.004.004.00
Corners
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.204.588.77safe1.99–6.402.60–6.554.59–12.96safer1.40–7.002.06–7.093.46–14.09actual2.006.008.00
Possession %
30%
65%
homeawayprediction47.1654.40safe40.85–53.4848.08–60.72safer39.25–55.0846.48–62.32actual23.0077.00
Passes
22%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction432523955safe366–497459–588825–1085safer349–515441–605790–1120actual216729945
Pass accuracy %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction66.2073.70safe61.99–70.4269.19–78.21safer60.68–71.7267.86–79.54
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9512.3525.30safe10.10–15.819.40–15.2919.50–31.10safer9.21–16.708.48–16.2117.70–32.91actual14.0013.0027.00
Offsides
58%
20%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.311.393.69safe1.10–3.520.22–2.551.32–6.07safer0.75–3.860.00–2.880.65–6.74actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
36%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.933.68safe0.69–2.800.81–3.051.50–5.85safer0.42–3.070.52–3.340.94–6.41actual1.000.001.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.060.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.902.495.39safe1.48–4.310.94–4.052.42–8.36safer1.09–4.700.51–4.481.60–9.18actual6.000.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.18–2.11 0.00–2.37 | 0.00 | 1.30 0.45–2.16 0.20–2.41 | 3.00 | 2.45 0.62–4.27 0.12–4.78 | 3.00 | 32% 27% 40% |
| Shots on target | 3.91 2.05–5.77 1.56–6.27 | 0.00 | 4.02 2.32–5.73 1.85–6.20 | 9.00 | 7.93 4.37–11.50 3.40–12.47 | 9.00 | 41% 14% 44% |
| Total shots | 11.13 7.42–14.83 6.39–15.86 | 2.00 | 12.03 8.65–15.40 7.72–16.34 | 23.00 | 23.15 16.07–30.24 14.11–32.20 | 25.00 | 39% 53% |
| Shots in box | 7.62 5.10–10.13 4.24–11.00 | 1.00 | 7.71 5.41–10.01 4.62–10.81 | 9.00 | 15.33 10.51–20.15 8.85–21.81 | 10.00 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.18 1.60–4.76 1.06–5.30 | 0.00 | 3.33 1.91–4.74 1.43–5.23 | 4.00 | 6.51 3.51–9.51 2.49–10.53 | 4.00 | 40% 16% 44% |
| Corners | 4.20 1.99–6.40 1.40–7.00 | 2.00 | 4.58 2.60–6.55 2.06–7.09 | 6.00 | 8.77 4.59–12.96 3.46–14.09 | 8.00 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Possession % | 47.16 40.85–53.48 39.25–55.08 | 23.00 | 54.40 48.08–60.72 46.48–62.32 | 77.00 | — | — | 30% 65% |
| Passes | 432 366–497 349–515 | 216 | 523 459–588 441–605 | 729 | 955 825–1085 790–1120 | 945 | 22% 78% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.20 61.99–70.42 60.68–71.72 | — | 73.70 69.19–78.21 67.86–79.54 | — | — | — | 16% 81% |
| Fouls | 12.95 10.10–15.81 9.21–16.70 | 14.00 | 12.35 9.40–15.29 8.48–16.21 | 13.00 | 25.30 19.50–31.10 17.70–32.91 | 27.00 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 2.31 1.10–3.52 0.75–3.86 | 2.00 | 1.39 0.22–2.55 0.00–2.88 | 0.00 | 3.69 1.32–6.07 0.65–6.74 | 2.00 | 58% 20% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.69–2.80 0.42–3.07 | 1.00 | 1.93 0.81–3.05 0.52–3.34 | 0.00 | 3.68 1.50–5.85 0.94–6.41 | 1.00 | 36% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 1.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 1.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.48–4.31 1.09–4.70 | 6.00 | 2.49 0.94–4.05 0.51–4.48 | 0.00 | 5.39 2.42–8.36 1.60–9.18 | 6.00 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.