UEFA Nations League·League B - 1·
UEFA Nations League·League B - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Daniel Schlager
Goals
37%
27%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.282.56safe0.31–2.240.42–2.140.74–4.38safer0.05–2.500.18–2.390.23–4.89actual0.003.003.00
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.114.428.52safe2.25–5.962.71–6.124.96–12.09safer1.75–6.462.24–6.593.99–13.06actual0.0011.0011.00
Total shots
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2313.3825.60safe8.52–15.9310.00–16.7618.52–32.69safer7.49–16.969.07–17.6916.56–34.65actual2.0023.0025.00
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction7.437.8515.28safe4.92–9.955.55–10.1510.46–20.10safer4.05–10.814.75–10.958.80–21.76actual1.0015.0016.00
Blocked shots
46%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.393.146.52safe1.80–4.971.72–4.553.52–9.52safer1.27–5.511.23–5.042.50–10.54actual1.005.006.00
Corners
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.044.478.51safe1.83–6.242.49–6.454.32–12.69safer1.24–6.841.95–6.993.19–13.82actual0.005.005.00
Possession %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction44.9654.36safe38.65–51.2848.04–60.68safer37.05–52.8846.44–62.27actual42.0058.00
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction411531942safe346–476466–595812–1072safer328–494449–613777–1107actual406575981
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction79.5584.97safe75.33–83.7780.47–89.48safer74.03–85.0779.14–90.81
Fouls
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6211.8825.50safe10.76–16.488.93–14.8219.69–31.30safer9.88–17.368.01–15.7417.89–33.10actual10.007.0017.00
Offsides
59%
18%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.631.634.25safe1.42–3.840.46–2.791.88–6.62safer1.07–4.180.13–3.121.20–7.30actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.044.05safe0.95–3.060.92–3.161.87–6.22safer0.68–3.330.63–3.451.31–6.79actual4.000.004.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.090.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.430.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.012.915.93safe1.60–4.431.36–4.472.96–8.89safer1.21–4.820.93–4.902.14–9.72actual8.000.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 0.31–2.24 0.05–2.50 | 0.00 | 1.28 0.42–2.14 0.18–2.39 | 3.00 | 2.56 0.74–4.38 0.23–4.89 | 3.00 | 37% 27% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.11 2.25–5.96 1.75–6.46 | 0.00 | 4.42 2.71–6.12 2.24–6.59 | 11.00 | 8.52 4.96–12.09 3.99–13.06 | 11.00 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 12.23 8.52–15.93 7.49–16.96 | 2.00 | 13.38 10.00–16.76 9.07–17.69 | 23.00 | 25.60 18.52–32.69 16.56–34.65 | 25.00 | 37% 55% |
| Shots in box | 7.43 4.92–9.95 4.05–10.81 | 1.00 | 7.85 5.55–10.15 4.75–10.95 | 15.00 | 15.28 10.46–20.10 8.80–21.76 | 16.00 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.39 1.80–4.97 1.27–5.51 | 1.00 | 3.14 1.72–4.55 1.23–5.04 | 5.00 | 6.52 3.52–9.52 2.50–10.54 | 6.00 | 46% 16% 38% |
| Corners | 4.04 1.83–6.24 1.24–6.84 | 0.00 | 4.47 2.49–6.45 1.95–6.99 | 5.00 | 8.51 4.32–12.69 3.19–13.82 | 5.00 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Possession % | 44.96 38.65–51.28 37.05–52.88 | 42.00 | 54.36 48.04–60.68 46.44–62.27 | 58.00 | — | — | 26% 70% |
| Passes | 411 346–476 328–494 | 406 | 531 466–595 449–613 | 575 | 942 812–1072 777–1107 | 981 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.55 75.33–83.77 74.03–85.07 | — | 84.97 80.47–89.48 79.14–90.81 | — | — | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 13.62 10.76–16.48 9.88–17.36 | 10.00 | 11.88 8.93–14.82 8.01–15.74 | 7.00 | 25.50 19.69–31.30 17.89–33.10 | 17.00 | 60% 33% |
| Offsides | 2.63 1.42–3.84 1.07–4.18 | 1.00 | 1.63 0.46–2.79 0.13–3.12 | 1.00 | 4.25 1.88–6.62 1.20–7.30 | 2.00 | 59% 18% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.95–3.06 0.68–3.33 | 4.00 | 2.04 0.92–3.16 0.63–3.45 | 0.00 | 4.05 1.87–6.22 1.31–6.79 | 4.00 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.01 1.60–4.43 1.21–4.82 | 8.00 | 2.91 1.36–4.47 0.93–4.90 | 0.00 | 5.93 2.96–8.89 2.14–9.72 | 8.00 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+