Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Horatiu Fesnic
Goals
32%
29%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.021.172.19safe0.06–1.980.31–2.030.36–4.01safer0.00–2.240.06–2.270.00–4.52actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
34%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.534.167.70safe1.68–5.392.46–5.874.14–11.26safer1.18–5.891.99–6.343.17–12.23actual1.005.006.00
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1111.4023.51safe8.41–15.818.02–14.7816.43–30.59safer7.38–16.857.09–15.7114.47–32.55actual4.0017.0021.00
Shots in box
38%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction7.237.9715.20safe4.72–9.755.67–10.2710.39–20.02safer3.85–10.624.87–11.078.72–21.68actual4.0014.0018.00
Blocked shots
52%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.552.926.47safe1.97–5.131.51–4.343.47–9.47safer1.43–5.671.02–4.822.45–10.49actual0.006.006.00
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.984.389.36safe2.77–7.182.41–6.365.18–13.54safer2.18–7.781.87–6.904.04–14.68actual5.004.009.00
Possession %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction46.7552.21safe40.43–53.0645.89–58.53safer38.83–54.6644.29–60.12actual35.0065.00
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction429486915safe364–494421–551785–1045safer346–512404–568750–1080actual322584906
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction82.6984.47safe78.47–86.9079.96–88.98safer77.17–88.2078.63–90.31
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1911.6923.88safe9.33–15.058.75–14.6418.08–29.68safer8.45–15.937.83–15.5516.28–31.49actual15.0018.0033.00
Offsides
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.773.33safe0.36–2.770.61–2.930.96–5.71safer0.01–3.120.27–3.260.28–6.38actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
38%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.942.043.98safe0.88–3.000.92–3.161.81–6.16safer0.61–3.270.63–3.451.24–6.72actual3.001.004.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.070.17safe0.00–0.260.00–0.260.00–0.52safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
49%
17%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.972.535.50safe1.56–4.390.97–4.082.53–8.47safer1.17–4.780.54–4.511.71–9.29actual5.001.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.02 0.06–1.98 0.00–2.24 | 0.00 | 1.17 0.31–2.03 0.06–2.27 | 0.00 | 2.19 0.36–4.01 0.00–4.52 | 0.00 | 32% 29% 39% |
| Shots on target | 3.53 1.68–5.39 1.18–5.89 | 1.00 | 4.16 2.46–5.87 1.99–6.34 | 5.00 | 7.70 4.14–11.26 3.17–12.23 | 6.00 | 34% 14% 52% |
| Total shots | 12.11 8.41–15.81 7.38–16.85 | 4.00 | 11.40 8.02–14.78 7.09–15.71 | 17.00 | 23.51 16.43–30.59 14.47–32.55 | 21.00 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 7.23 4.72–9.75 3.85–10.62 | 4.00 | 7.97 5.67–10.27 4.87–11.07 | 14.00 | 15.20 10.39–20.02 8.72–21.68 | 18.00 | 38% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 3.55 1.97–5.13 1.43–5.67 | 0.00 | 2.92 1.51–4.34 1.02–4.82 | 6.00 | 6.47 3.47–9.47 2.45–10.49 | 6.00 | 52% 16% 33% |
| Corners | 4.98 2.77–7.18 2.18–7.78 | 5.00 | 4.38 2.41–6.36 1.87–6.90 | 4.00 | 9.36 5.18–13.54 4.04–14.68 | 9.00 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 46.75 40.43–53.06 38.83–54.66 | 35.00 | 52.21 45.89–58.53 44.29–60.12 | 65.00 | — | — | 34% 61% |
| Passes | 429 364–494 346–512 | 322 | 486 421–551 404–568 | 584 | 915 785–1045 750–1080 | 906 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.69 78.47–86.90 77.17–88.20 | — | 84.47 79.96–88.98 78.63–90.31 | — | — | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 12.19 9.33–15.05 8.45–15.93 | 15.00 | 11.69 8.75–14.64 7.83–15.55 | 18.00 | 23.88 18.08–29.68 16.28–31.49 | 33.00 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.56 0.36–2.77 0.01–3.12 | 2.00 | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.27–3.26 | 1.00 | 3.33 0.96–5.71 0.28–6.38 | 3.00 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 0.88–3.00 0.61–3.27 | 3.00 | 2.04 0.92–3.16 0.63–3.45 | 1.00 | 3.98 1.81–6.16 1.24–6.72 | 4.00 | 38% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.56–4.39 1.17–4.78 | 5.00 | 2.53 0.97–4.08 0.54–4.51 | 1.00 | 5.50 2.53–8.47 1.71–9.29 | 6.00 | 49% 17% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.