UEFA Nations League·League B - 5·
UEFA Nations League·League B - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.102.55safe0.48–2.420.24–1.950.72–4.37safer0.23–2.670.01–2.180.25–4.85
Shots on target
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.853.598.43safe2.99–6.711.84–5.334.83–12.04safer2.50–7.201.38–5.793.87–13.00
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1710.4025.57safe11.25–19.106.84–13.9718.09–33.06safer10.15–20.195.88–14.9216.04–35.11
Shots in box
79%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction10.076.3116.38safe7.13–13.013.63–8.9910.76–22.01safer6.30–13.842.89–9.739.19–23.57
Blocked shots
56%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.083.157.24safe2.20–5.961.50–4.813.70–10.77safer1.66–6.511.01–5.302.66–11.81
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.043.919.95safe3.83–8.251.91–5.915.74–14.17safer3.25–8.831.38–6.454.63–15.27
Possession %
51%
45%
homeawayprediction50.4649.23safe43.67–57.2542.45–56.01safer42.00–58.9240.77–57.69
Passes
57%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction479456935safe412–546390–523802–1069safer394–564372–540766–1105
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction70.9672.59safe66.93–74.9968.26–76.91safer65.63–76.2866.95–78.22
Fouls
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5511.8624.41safe9.71–15.398.92–14.8118.63–30.19safer8.96–16.148.17–15.5617.12–31.70
Offsides
42%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.463.08safe0.46–2.780.36–2.550.82–5.33safer0.16–3.080.08–2.840.23–5.92
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.933.66safe0.68–2.780.80–3.061.48–5.84safer0.41–3.040.51–3.350.92–6.40
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.543.215.75safe1.10–3.971.65–4.772.76–8.74safer0.71–4.361.23–5.191.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.48–2.42 0.23–2.67 | 1.10 0.24–1.95 0.01–2.18 | 2.55 0.72–4.37 0.25–4.85 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.85 2.99–6.71 2.50–7.20 | 3.59 1.84–5.33 1.38–5.79 | 8.43 4.83–12.04 3.87–13.00 | 60% 27% |
| Total shots | 15.17 11.25–19.10 10.15–20.19 | 10.40 6.84–13.97 5.88–14.92 | 25.57 18.09–33.06 16.04–35.11 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 10.07 7.13–13.01 6.30–13.84 | 6.31 3.63–8.99 2.89–9.73 | 16.38 10.76–22.01 9.19–23.57 | 79% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 4.08 2.20–5.96 1.66–6.51 | 3.15 1.50–4.81 1.01–5.30 | 7.24 3.70–10.77 2.66–11.81 | 56% 14% 30% |
| Corners | 6.04 3.83–8.25 3.25–8.83 | 3.91 1.91–5.91 1.38–6.45 | 9.95 5.74–14.17 4.63–15.27 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 50.46 43.67–57.25 42.00–58.92 | 49.23 42.45–56.01 40.77–57.69 | — | 51% 45% |
| Passes | 479 412–546 394–564 | 456 390–523 372–540 | 935 802–1069 766–1105 | 57% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.96 66.93–74.99 65.63–76.28 | 72.59 68.26–76.91 66.95–78.22 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 12.55 9.71–15.39 8.96–16.14 | 11.86 8.92–14.81 8.17–15.56 | 24.41 18.63–30.19 17.12–31.70 | 51% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.46–2.78 0.16–3.08 | 1.46 0.36–2.55 0.08–2.84 | 3.08 0.82–5.33 0.23–5.92 | 42% 24% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.68–2.78 0.41–3.04 | 1.93 0.80–3.06 0.51–3.35 | 3.66 1.48–5.84 0.92–6.40 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.54 1.10–3.97 0.71–4.36 | 3.21 1.65–4.77 1.23–5.19 | 5.75 2.76–8.74 1.94–9.55 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.