UEFA Nations League·League B - 2·
UEFA Nations League·League B - 2·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Andrea Colombo
Goals
43%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.222.69safe0.50–2.430.36–2.080.87–4.51safer0.24–2.690.12–2.330.36–5.02actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
38%
15%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.623.957.57safe1.77–5.482.24–5.664.01–11.13safer1.27–5.981.77–6.123.04–12.10actual5.001.006.00
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9411.2523.20safe8.24–15.657.87–14.6316.11–30.28safer7.21–16.686.94–15.5614.15–32.24actual16.009.0025.00
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction8.766.4615.22safe6.24–11.284.16–8.7610.40–20.04safer5.38–12.143.36–9.568.74–21.70actual13.006.0019.00
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.873.096.95safe2.28–5.451.67–4.503.95–9.95safer1.75–5.991.18–4.992.93–10.97actual6.006.0012.00
Corners
56%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.803.848.65safe2.60–7.011.87–5.824.46–12.83safer2.00–7.601.33–6.363.33–13.96actual6.003.009.00
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction48.5052.09safe42.18–54.8245.77–58.41safer40.58–56.4144.17–60.01actual52.0048.00
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction459512971safe393–524448–577841–1101safer376–542430–594806–1136actual511482993
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction70.2970.84safe66.07–74.5066.33–75.35safer64.77–75.8165.00–76.68
Fouls
50%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1111.5623.67safe9.25–14.968.61–14.5017.86–29.47safer8.36–15.857.70–15.4216.06–31.27actual8.008.0016.00
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.883.59safe0.50–2.920.72–3.041.22–5.96safer0.16–3.270.39–3.380.54–6.64actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.214.14safe0.88–2.991.09–3.331.96–6.31safer0.60–3.260.80–3.621.40–6.88actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.542.725.26safe1.13–3.961.17–4.282.29–8.23safer0.74–4.340.74–4.711.47–9.05actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.43 0.24–2.69 | 2.00 | 1.22 0.36–2.08 0.12–2.33 | 0.00 | 2.69 0.87–4.51 0.36–5.02 | 2.00 | 43% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 3.62 1.77–5.48 1.27–5.98 | 5.00 | 3.95 2.24–5.66 1.77–6.12 | 1.00 | 7.57 4.01–11.13 3.04–12.10 | 6.00 | 38% 15% 47% |
| Total shots | 11.94 8.24–15.65 7.21–16.68 | 16.00 | 11.25 7.87–14.63 6.94–15.56 | 9.00 | 23.20 16.11–30.28 14.15–32.24 | 25.00 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 8.76 6.24–11.28 5.38–12.14 | 13.00 | 6.46 4.16–8.76 3.36–9.56 | 6.00 | 15.22 10.40–20.04 8.74–21.70 | 19.00 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.87 2.28–5.45 1.75–5.99 | 6.00 | 3.09 1.67–4.50 1.18–4.99 | 6.00 | 6.95 3.95–9.95 2.93–10.97 | 12.00 | 54% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 4.80 2.60–7.01 2.00–7.60 | 6.00 | 3.84 1.87–5.82 1.33–6.36 | 3.00 | 8.65 4.46–12.83 3.33–13.96 | 9.00 | 56% 13% 31% |
| Possession % | 48.50 42.18–54.82 40.58–56.41 | 52.00 | 52.09 45.77–58.41 44.17–60.01 | 48.00 | — | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 459 393–524 376–542 | 511 | 512 448–577 430–594 | 482 | 971 841–1101 806–1136 | 993 | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.29 66.07–74.50 64.77–75.81 | — | 70.84 66.33–75.35 65.00–76.68 | — | — | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 12.11 9.25–14.96 8.36–15.85 | 8.00 | 11.56 8.61–14.50 7.70–15.42 | 8.00 | 23.67 17.86–29.47 16.06–31.27 | 16.00 | 50% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.50–2.92 0.16–3.27 | 1.00 | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.39–3.38 | 1.00 | 3.59 1.22–5.96 0.54–6.64 | 2.00 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.88–2.99 0.60–3.26 | 1.00 | 2.21 1.09–3.33 0.80–3.62 | 2.00 | 4.14 1.96–6.31 1.40–6.88 | 3.00 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.54 1.13–3.96 0.74–4.34 | 1.00 | 2.72 1.17–4.28 0.74–4.71 | 3.00 | 5.26 2.29–8.23 1.47–9.05 | 4.00 | 38% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.