Superliga·Regular Season - 8·
Superliga·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: F. Svendsen
Goals
66%
20%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.100.862.96safe1.14–3.060.00–1.711.13–4.78safer0.88–3.320.00–1.960.63–5.28actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
76%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction5.573.018.58safe3.72–7.431.30–4.725.02–12.15safer3.22–7.930.83–5.194.05–13.11actual5.003.008.00
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction16.569.2925.85safe12.86–20.265.91–12.6718.77–32.93safer11.83–21.304.98–13.6016.81–34.89actual14.0011.0025.00
Shots in box
93%
homeawaytotalprediction11.435.0816.51safe8.91–13.942.78–7.3911.70–21.33safer8.05–14.811.99–8.1810.03–22.99actual9.005.0014.00
Blocked shots
81%
homeawaytotalprediction4.982.177.15safe3.40–6.560.75–3.584.15–10.15safer2.86–7.100.27–4.073.13–11.17actual4.002.006.00
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction5.923.169.08safe3.72–8.131.18–5.144.90–13.26safer3.12–8.720.64–5.683.76–14.40actual7.004.0011.00
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.1045.81safe47.78–60.4239.49–52.13safer46.19–62.0137.90–53.73actual53.0047.00
Passes
71%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction499432931safe433–564368–497801–1061safer416–582350–514766–1096actual490431921
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction75.1474.68safe70.93–79.3670.17–79.19safer69.63–80.6668.84–80.52
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1311.9623.09safe8.28–13.999.01–14.9017.29–28.89safer7.39–14.878.10–15.8215.49–30.70actual4.0017.0021.00
Offsides
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.402.88safe0.27–2.690.24–2.560.51–5.25safer0.00–3.030.00–2.900.00–5.93actual4.003.007.00
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.712.233.94safe0.65–2.761.11–3.351.76–6.11safer0.38–3.030.82–3.641.20–6.68actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.110.15safe0.00–0.190.00–0.310.00–0.50safer0.00–0.350.00–0.450.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.393.165.55safe0.97–3.801.60–4.712.58–8.51safer0.58–4.191.17–5.141.76–9.34actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.10 1.14–3.06 0.88–3.32 | 2.00 | 0.86 0.00–1.71 0.00–1.96 | 0.00 | 2.96 1.13–4.78 0.63–5.28 | 2.00 | 66% 20% 14% |
| Shots on target | 5.57 3.72–7.43 3.22–7.93 | 5.00 | 3.01 1.30–4.72 0.83–5.19 | 3.00 | 8.58 5.02–12.15 4.05–13.11 | 8.00 | 76% 14% |
| Total shots | 16.56 12.86–20.26 11.83–21.30 | 14.00 | 9.29 5.91–12.67 4.98–13.60 | 11.00 | 25.85 18.77–32.93 16.81–34.89 | 25.00 | 91% |
| Shots in box | 11.43 8.91–13.94 8.05–14.81 | 9.00 | 5.08 2.78–7.39 1.99–8.18 | 5.00 | 16.51 11.70–21.33 10.03–22.99 | 14.00 | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 4.98 3.40–6.56 2.86–7.10 | 4.00 | 2.17 0.75–3.58 0.27–4.07 | 2.00 | 7.15 4.15–10.15 3.13–11.17 | 6.00 | 81% |
| Corners | 5.92 3.72–8.13 3.12–8.72 | 7.00 | 3.16 1.18–5.14 0.64–5.68 | 4.00 | 9.08 4.90–13.26 3.76–14.40 | 11.00 | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 54.10 47.78–60.42 46.19–62.01 | 53.00 | 45.81 39.49–52.13 37.90–53.73 | 47.00 | — | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 499 433–564 416–582 | 490 | 432 368–497 350–514 | 431 | 931 801–1061 766–1096 | 921 | 71% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.14 70.93–79.36 69.63–80.66 | — | 74.68 70.17–79.19 68.84–80.52 | — | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 11.13 8.28–13.99 7.39–14.87 | 4.00 | 11.96 9.01–14.90 8.10–15.82 | 17.00 | 23.09 17.29–28.89 15.49–30.70 | 21.00 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.48 0.27–2.69 0.00–3.03 | 4.00 | 1.40 0.24–2.56 0.00–2.90 | 3.00 | 2.88 0.51–5.25 0.00–5.93 | 7.00 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.65–2.76 0.38–3.03 | 1.00 | 2.23 1.11–3.35 0.82–3.64 | 3.00 | 3.94 1.76–6.11 1.20–6.68 | 4.00 | 30% 20% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.39 0.97–3.80 0.58–4.19 | 3.00 | 3.16 1.60–4.71 1.17–5.14 | 3.00 | 5.55 2.58–8.51 1.76–9.34 | 6.00 | 29% 17% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.