Superliga·Regular Season - 8·
Superliga·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: M. Redder
Goals
54%
24%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.710.992.70safe0.75–2.670.13–1.850.88–4.52safer0.49–2.930.00–2.100.37–5.03actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.163.238.39safe3.30–7.021.52–4.944.83–11.95safer2.80–7.521.05–5.403.86–12.92actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7710.0825.85safe12.07–19.486.70–13.4618.77–32.94safer11.04–20.515.77–14.3916.81–34.90actual19.0018.0037.00
Shots in box
75%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction9.546.3215.87safe7.02–12.064.02–8.6311.05–20.68safer6.16–12.923.23–9.429.39–22.34actual8.0013.0021.00
Blocked shots
61%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.932.676.60safe2.35–5.521.26–4.093.60–9.60safer1.81–6.050.77–4.572.58–10.62actual6.007.0013.00
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.923.739.65safe3.71–8.131.76–5.715.47–13.84safer3.12–8.721.22–6.254.34–14.97actual6.006.0012.00
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction54.7745.20safe48.45–61.0938.88–51.52safer46.86–62.6937.29–53.12actual57.0043.00
Passes
76%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction475393867safe409–540328–457737–997safer392–558310–475702–1032actual454344798
Pass accuracy %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction80.9476.97safe76.72–85.1572.47–81.48safer75.42–86.4571.14–82.81
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2414.4726.72safe9.39–15.1011.53–17.4220.91–32.52safer8.50–15.9910.61–18.3419.11–34.32actual20.0010.0030.00
Offsides
55%
22%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.163.06safe0.69–3.110.00–2.320.69–5.43safer0.35–3.460.00–2.660.01–6.11actual0.004.004.00
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.943.57safe0.57–2.690.82–3.061.40–5.75safer0.30–2.960.53–3.350.84–6.31actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
20%
14%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.303.886.18safe0.88–3.712.32–5.433.21–9.14safer0.49–4.101.89–5.862.39–9.96actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.71 0.75–2.67 0.49–2.93 | 1.00 | 0.99 0.13–1.85 0.00–2.10 | 1.00 | 2.70 0.88–4.52 0.37–5.03 | 2.00 | 54% 24% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.16 3.30–7.02 2.80–7.52 | 4.00 | 3.23 1.52–4.94 1.05–5.40 | 3.00 | 8.39 4.83–11.95 3.86–12.92 | 7.00 | 69% 20% |
| Total shots | 15.77 12.07–19.48 11.04–20.51 | 19.00 | 10.08 6.70–13.46 5.77–14.39 | 18.00 | 25.85 18.77–32.94 16.81–34.90 | 37.00 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 9.54 7.02–12.06 6.16–12.92 | 8.00 | 6.32 4.02–8.63 3.23–9.42 | 13.00 | 15.87 11.05–20.68 9.39–22.34 | 21.00 | 75% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 3.93 2.35–5.52 1.81–6.05 | 6.00 | 2.67 1.26–4.09 0.77–4.57 | 7.00 | 6.60 3.60–9.60 2.58–10.62 | 13.00 | 61% 14% 24% |
| Corners | 5.92 3.71–8.13 3.12–8.72 | 6.00 | 3.73 1.76–5.71 1.22–6.25 | 6.00 | 9.65 5.47–13.84 4.34–14.97 | 12.00 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 54.77 48.45–61.09 46.86–62.69 | 57.00 | 45.20 38.88–51.52 37.29–53.12 | 43.00 | — | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 475 409–540 392–558 | 454 | 393 328–457 310–475 | 344 | 867 737–997 702–1032 | 798 | 76% 24% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.94 76.72–85.15 75.42–86.45 | — | 76.97 72.47–81.48 71.14–82.81 | — | — | — | 67% 29% |
| Fouls | 12.24 9.39–15.10 8.50–15.99 | 20.00 | 14.47 11.53–17.42 10.61–18.34 | 10.00 | 26.72 20.91–32.52 19.11–34.32 | 30.00 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.69–3.11 0.35–3.46 | 0.00 | 1.16 0.00–2.32 0.00–2.66 | 4.00 | 3.06 0.69–5.43 0.01–6.11 | 4.00 | 55% 22% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.57–2.69 0.30–2.96 | 1.00 | 1.94 0.82–3.06 0.53–3.35 | 1.00 | 3.57 1.40–5.75 0.84–6.31 | 2.00 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.30 0.88–3.71 0.49–4.10 | 1.00 | 3.88 2.32–5.43 1.89–5.86 | 3.00 | 6.18 3.21–9.14 2.39–9.96 | 4.00 | 20% 14% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.