Superliga·Regular Season - 8·
Superliga·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: M. Krogh
Goals
55%
22%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.143.02safe0.92–2.840.28–2.001.20–4.85safer0.66–3.100.04–2.250.69–5.35actual4.001.005.00
Shots on target
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.753.959.70safe3.89–7.612.24–5.666.14–13.26safer3.40–8.111.77–6.125.17–14.23actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
78%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction16.0511.4427.49safe12.35–19.768.06–14.8220.41–34.57safer11.32–20.797.13–15.7518.45–36.54actual15.0013.0028.00
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction9.696.6816.37safe7.18–12.214.38–8.9811.55–21.19safer6.31–13.083.58–9.779.89–22.85actual13.006.0019.00
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.093.027.11safe2.50–5.671.61–4.444.11–10.11safer1.97–6.211.12–4.923.09–11.13actual1.005.006.00
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.464.099.55safe3.26–7.672.11–6.075.36–13.73safer2.66–8.261.57–6.604.23–14.86actual6.002.008.00
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.5450.39safe43.23–55.8644.08–56.71safer41.63–57.4642.48–58.31actual46.0054.00
Passes
44%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction433451884safe368–498387–516754–1014safer350–516369–533719–1049actual308408716
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction77.8179.13safe73.60–82.0374.63–83.64safer72.29–83.3373.30–84.97
Fouls
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2810.5322.81safe9.42–15.147.59–13.4817.01–28.62safer8.54–16.026.67–14.3915.21–30.42actual14.0013.0027.00
Offsides
48%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.523.47safe0.74–3.160.36–2.681.10–5.84safer0.39–3.500.03–3.020.42–6.52actual3.002.005.00
Yellow cards
36%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.993.83safe0.78–2.890.87–3.111.65–6.00safer0.51–3.170.58–3.401.09–6.57actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.79actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
38%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.833.085.91safe1.41–4.241.53–4.632.94–8.88safer1.02–4.631.10–5.072.12–9.70actual3.000.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.88 0.92–2.84 0.66–3.10 | 4.00 | 1.14 0.28–2.00 0.04–2.25 | 1.00 | 3.02 1.20–4.85 0.69–5.35 | 5.00 | 55% 22% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.75 3.89–7.61 3.40–8.11 | 5.00 | 3.95 2.24–5.66 1.77–6.12 | 4.00 | 9.70 6.14–13.26 5.17–14.23 | 9.00 | 66% 23% |
| Total shots | 16.05 12.35–19.76 11.32–20.79 | 15.00 | 11.44 8.06–14.82 7.13–15.75 | 13.00 | 27.49 20.41–34.57 18.45–36.54 | 28.00 | 78% 16% |
| Shots in box | 9.69 7.18–12.21 6.31–13.08 | 13.00 | 6.68 4.38–8.98 3.58–9.77 | 6.00 | 16.37 11.55–21.19 9.89–22.85 | 19.00 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 4.09 2.50–5.67 1.97–6.21 | 1.00 | 3.02 1.61–4.44 1.12–4.92 | 5.00 | 7.11 4.11–10.11 3.09–11.13 | 6.00 | 58% 14% 28% |
| Corners | 5.46 3.26–7.67 2.66–8.26 | 6.00 | 4.09 2.11–6.07 1.57–6.60 | 2.00 | 9.55 5.36–13.73 4.23–14.86 | 8.00 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 49.54 43.23–55.86 41.63–57.46 | 46.00 | 50.39 44.08–56.71 42.48–58.31 | 54.00 | — | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 433 368–498 350–516 | 308 | 451 387–516 369–533 | 408 | 884 754–1014 719–1049 | 716 | 44% 56% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.81 73.60–82.03 72.29–83.33 | — | 79.13 74.63–83.64 73.30–84.97 | — | — | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 12.28 9.42–15.14 8.54–16.02 | 14.00 | 10.53 7.59–13.48 6.67–14.39 | 13.00 | 22.81 17.01–28.62 15.21–30.42 | 27.00 | 60% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.74–3.16 0.39–3.50 | 3.00 | 1.52 0.36–2.68 0.03–3.02 | 2.00 | 3.47 1.10–5.84 0.42–6.52 | 5.00 | 48% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.78–2.89 0.51–3.17 | 1.00 | 1.99 0.87–3.11 0.58–3.40 | 2.00 | 3.83 1.65–6.00 1.09–6.57 | 3.00 | 36% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 1.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 1.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.83 1.41–4.24 1.02–4.63 | 3.00 | 3.08 1.53–4.63 1.10–5.07 | 0.00 | 5.91 2.94–8.88 2.12–9.70 | 3.00 | 38% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.