Superliga·Regular Season - 8·
Superliga·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: J. Karlsen
Goals
49%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.533.52safe1.03–2.960.67–2.391.70–5.35safer0.77–3.220.42–2.631.19–5.85actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.694.7910.48safe3.83–7.553.08–6.506.92–14.04safer3.33–8.052.61–6.965.95–15.01actual3.002.005.00
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1812.8328.01safe11.47–18.889.45–16.2120.93–35.09safer10.44–19.918.52–17.1418.96–37.05actual19.0012.0031.00
Shots in box
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction11.188.1319.30safe8.66–13.695.82–10.4314.48–24.12safer7.79–14.565.03–11.2212.82–25.78actual14.008.0022.00
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.033.377.40safe2.45–5.611.95–4.784.40–10.40safer1.91–6.151.47–5.273.38–11.42actual11.004.0015.00
Corners
62%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.494.089.57safe3.29–7.702.10–6.065.39–13.76safer2.69–8.291.56–6.594.26–14.89actual2.004.006.00
Possession %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction58.3642.81safe52.04–64.6736.50–49.13safer50.44–66.2734.90–50.73actual53.0047.00
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction538393931safe472–603329–458801–1061safer455–621311–475766–1096actual5615031064
Pass accuracy %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction77.5374.73safe73.31–81.7570.23–79.24safer72.01–83.0568.89–80.57
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4812.0022.48safe7.62–13.349.05–14.9416.67–28.28safer6.74–14.228.13–15.8614.87–30.08actual15.007.0022.00
Offsides
32%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.753.21safe0.25–2.670.59–2.910.84–5.58safer0.00–3.010.25–3.240.16–6.26actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.792.133.92safe0.74–2.851.01–3.251.75–6.10safer0.47–3.120.72–3.541.19–6.66actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.120.16safe0.00–0.200.00–0.310.00–0.51safer0.00–0.350.00–0.450.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.883.456.33safe1.47–4.301.90–5.003.37–9.30safer1.08–4.691.47–5.442.54–10.12actual2.001.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.00 1.03–2.96 0.77–3.22 | 2.00 | 1.53 0.67–2.39 0.42–2.63 | 0.00 | 3.52 1.70–5.35 1.19–5.85 | 2.00 | 49% 22% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.69 3.83–7.55 3.33–8.05 | 3.00 | 4.79 3.08–6.50 2.61–6.96 | 2.00 | 10.48 6.92–14.04 5.95–15.01 | 5.00 | 55% 33% |
| Total shots | 15.18 11.47–18.88 10.44–19.91 | 19.00 | 12.83 9.45–16.21 8.52–17.14 | 12.00 | 28.01 20.93–35.09 18.96–37.05 | 31.00 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 11.18 8.66–13.69 7.79–14.56 | 14.00 | 8.13 5.82–10.43 5.03–11.22 | 8.00 | 19.30 14.48–24.12 12.82–25.78 | 22.00 | 72% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 4.03 2.45–5.61 1.91–6.15 | 11.00 | 3.37 1.95–4.78 1.47–5.27 | 4.00 | 7.40 4.40–10.40 3.38–11.42 | 15.00 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.49 3.29–7.70 2.69–8.29 | 2.00 | 4.08 2.10–6.06 1.56–6.59 | 4.00 | 9.57 5.39–13.76 4.26–14.89 | 6.00 | 62% 27% |
| Possession % | 58.36 52.04–64.67 50.44–66.27 | 53.00 | 42.81 36.50–49.13 34.90–50.73 | 47.00 | — | — | 82% 15% |
| Passes | 538 472–603 455–621 | 561 | 393 329–458 311–475 | 503 | 931 801–1061 766–1096 | 1064 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.53 73.31–81.75 72.01–83.05 | — | 74.73 70.23–79.24 68.89–80.57 | — | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Fouls | 10.48 7.62–13.34 6.74–14.22 | 15.00 | 12.00 9.05–14.94 8.13–15.86 | 7.00 | 22.48 16.67–28.28 14.87–30.08 | 22.00 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.25–2.67 0.00–3.01 | 2.00 | 1.75 0.59–2.91 0.25–3.24 | 0.00 | 3.21 0.84–5.58 0.16–6.26 | 2.00 | 32% 23% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.85 0.47–3.12 | 2.00 | 2.13 1.01–3.25 0.72–3.54 | 2.00 | 3.92 1.75–6.10 1.19–6.66 | 4.00 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.47–4.30 1.08–4.69 | 2.00 | 3.45 1.90–5.00 1.47–5.44 | 1.00 | 6.33 3.37–9.30 2.54–10.12 | 3.00 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.