Superliga·Regular Season - 8·
Superliga·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: S. Funder
Goals
37%
25%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.482.92safe0.48–2.410.62–2.341.10–4.75safer0.22–2.670.38–2.590.60–5.25actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.584.549.12safe2.73–6.442.83–6.245.55–12.68safer2.23–6.942.36–6.714.59–13.65actual2.005.007.00
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6312.4726.09safe9.92–17.339.09–15.8519.01–33.17safer8.89–18.368.16–16.7817.05–35.14actual11.0019.0030.00
Shots in box
61%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction10.138.4018.53safe7.62–12.656.09–10.7013.71–23.35safer6.75–13.515.30–11.4912.05–25.01actual7.0011.0018.00
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.393.337.73safe2.81–5.981.92–4.754.73–10.72safer2.28–6.511.43–5.233.71–11.74actual1.007.008.00
Corners
50%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.464.9710.43safe3.26–7.672.99–6.956.25–14.62safer2.66–8.262.46–7.495.12–15.75actual3.0011.0014.00
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction50.6050.89safe44.28–56.9244.57–57.21safer42.68–58.5142.97–58.80actual45.0055.00
Passes
44%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction443461904safe378–508396–525774–1033safer360–526378–543738–1069actual442545987
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction79.7879.88safe75.56–83.9975.38–84.39safer74.26–85.2974.05–85.72
Fouls
54%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4110.3821.79safe8.55–14.277.44–13.3315.99–27.59safer7.67–15.156.52–14.2514.19–29.40actual14.0013.0027.00
Offsides
49%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.533.54safe0.80–3.220.36–2.691.16–5.91safer0.46–3.560.03–3.020.49–6.58actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
36%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.753.35safe0.55–2.660.63–2.871.18–5.53safer0.28–2.940.34–3.160.62–6.09actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.060.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.77actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.932.975.90safe1.51–4.341.42–4.522.93–8.87safer1.12–4.730.98–4.962.11–9.69actual3.001.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.48–2.41 0.22–2.67 | 1.00 | 1.48 0.62–2.34 0.38–2.59 | 2.00 | 2.92 1.10–4.75 0.60–5.25 | 3.00 | 37% 25% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.58 2.73–6.44 2.23–6.94 | 2.00 | 4.54 2.83–6.24 2.36–6.71 | 5.00 | 9.12 5.55–12.68 4.59–13.65 | 7.00 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Total shots | 13.63 9.92–17.33 8.89–18.36 | 11.00 | 12.47 9.09–15.85 8.16–16.78 | 19.00 | 26.09 19.01–33.17 17.05–35.14 | 30.00 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 10.13 7.62–12.65 6.75–13.51 | 7.00 | 8.40 6.09–10.70 5.30–11.49 | 11.00 | 18.53 13.71–23.35 12.05–25.01 | 18.00 | 61% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 4.39 2.81–5.98 2.28–6.51 | 1.00 | 3.33 1.92–4.75 1.43–5.23 | 7.00 | 7.73 4.73–10.72 3.71–11.74 | 8.00 | 58% 14% 28% |
| Corners | 5.46 3.26–7.67 2.66–8.26 | 3.00 | 4.97 2.99–6.95 2.46–7.49 | 11.00 | 10.43 6.25–14.62 5.12–15.75 | 14.00 | 50% 38% |
| Possession % | 50.60 44.28–56.92 42.68–58.51 | 45.00 | 50.89 44.57–57.21 42.97–58.80 | 55.00 | — | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 443 378–508 360–526 | 442 | 461 396–525 378–543 | 545 | 904 774–1033 738–1069 | 987 | 44% 56% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.78 75.56–83.99 74.26–85.29 | — | 79.88 75.38–84.39 74.05–85.72 | — | — | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 11.41 8.55–14.27 7.67–15.15 | 14.00 | 10.38 7.44–13.33 6.52–14.25 | 13.00 | 21.79 15.99–27.59 14.19–29.40 | 27.00 | 54% 37% |
| Offsides | 2.01 0.80–3.22 0.46–3.56 | 0.00 | 1.53 0.36–2.69 0.03–3.02 | 2.00 | 3.54 1.16–5.91 0.49–6.58 | 2.00 | 49% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.55–2.66 0.28–2.94 | 1.00 | 1.75 0.63–2.87 0.34–3.16 | 1.00 | 3.35 1.18–5.53 0.62–6.09 | 2.00 | 36% 23% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 1.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 1.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.51–4.34 1.12–4.73 | 3.00 | 2.97 1.42–4.52 0.98–4.96 | 1.00 | 5.90 2.93–8.87 2.11–9.69 | 4.00 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+