Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: M. Tykgaard
Goals
26%
24%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.662.81safe0.18–2.110.80–2.520.98–4.63safer0.00–2.370.56–2.770.48–5.14actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
32%
13%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.004.848.84safe2.14–5.853.13–6.555.28–12.40safer1.64–6.352.67–7.024.31–13.37actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
19%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0114.9025.91safe7.30–14.7111.52–18.2818.83–32.99safer6.27–15.7410.59–19.2116.86–34.95actual13.009.0022.00
Shots in box
28%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction7.028.8715.89safe4.51–9.546.57–11.1711.07–20.71safer3.64–10.405.77–11.969.41–22.37actual9.005.0014.00
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.253.606.86safe1.67–4.842.19–5.023.86–9.86safer1.13–5.371.70–5.512.84–10.88actual3.003.006.00
Corners
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.255.279.53safe2.05–6.463.30–7.255.34–13.71safer1.45–7.052.76–7.794.21–14.84actual4.006.0010.00
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction48.8550.30safe42.53–55.1643.98–56.62safer40.93–56.7642.38–58.21actual54.0046.00
Passes
46%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction478488967safe413–543424–553837–1096safer395–561406–571801–1132actual513423936
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction83.1085.30safe78.89–87.3280.80–89.81safer77.59–88.6279.47–91.14
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8310.9421.77safe7.98–13.698.00–13.8915.97–27.58safer7.09–14.577.08–14.8114.17–29.38actual5.0015.0020.00
Offsides
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.372.82safe0.24–2.660.21–2.530.45–5.19safer0.00–3.000.00–2.870.00–5.87actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
36%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.773.40safe0.57–2.680.65–2.891.23–5.58safer0.30–2.960.36–3.180.66–6.14actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.060.11safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.45safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.212.475.68safe1.80–4.620.91–4.022.71–8.65safer1.41–5.010.48–4.451.89–9.47actual3.004.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.18–2.11 0.00–2.37 | 1.00 | 1.66 0.80–2.52 0.56–2.77 | 1.00 | 2.81 0.98–4.63 0.48–5.14 | 2.00 | 26% 24% 49% |
| Shots on target | 4.00 2.14–5.85 1.64–6.35 | 5.00 | 4.84 3.13–6.55 2.67–7.02 | 4.00 | 8.84 5.28–12.40 4.31–13.37 | 9.00 | 32% 13% 54% |
| Total shots | 11.01 7.30–14.71 6.27–15.74 | 13.00 | 14.90 11.52–18.28 10.59–19.21 | 9.00 | 25.91 18.83–32.99 16.86–34.95 | 22.00 | 19% 75% |
| Shots in box | 7.02 4.51–9.54 3.64–10.40 | 9.00 | 8.87 6.57–11.17 5.77–11.96 | 5.00 | 15.89 11.07–20.71 9.41–22.37 | 14.00 | 28% 63% |
| Blocked shots | 3.25 1.67–4.84 1.13–5.37 | 3.00 | 3.60 2.19–5.02 1.70–5.51 | 3.00 | 6.86 3.86–9.86 2.84–10.88 | 6.00 | 37% 15% 48% |
| Corners | 4.25 2.05–6.46 1.45–7.05 | 4.00 | 5.27 3.30–7.25 2.76–7.79 | 6.00 | 9.53 5.34–13.71 4.21–14.84 | 10.00 | 31% 57% |
| Possession % | 48.85 42.53–55.16 40.93–56.76 | 54.00 | 50.30 43.98–56.62 42.38–58.21 | 46.00 | — | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 478 413–543 395–561 | 513 | 488 424–553 406–571 | 423 | 967 837–1096 801–1132 | 936 | 46% 53% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.10 78.89–87.32 77.59–88.62 | — | 85.30 80.80–89.81 79.47–91.14 | — | — | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 10.83 7.98–13.69 7.09–14.57 | 5.00 | 10.94 8.00–13.89 7.08–14.81 | 15.00 | 21.77 15.97–27.58 14.17–29.38 | 20.00 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.45 0.24–2.66 0.00–3.00 | 1.00 | 1.37 0.21–2.53 0.00–2.87 | 2.00 | 2.82 0.45–5.19 0.00–5.87 | 3.00 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.57–2.68 0.30–2.96 | 1.00 | 1.77 0.65–2.89 0.36–3.18 | 1.00 | 3.40 1.23–5.58 0.66–6.14 | 2.00 | 36% 23% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 3.21 1.80–4.62 1.41–5.01 | 3.00 | 2.47 0.91–4.02 0.48–4.45 | 4.00 | 5.68 2.71–8.65 1.89–9.47 | 7.00 | 54% 16% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.