Superliga·Regular Season - 9·
Superliga·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: M. Redder
Goals
32%
25%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.522.81safe0.33–2.250.66–2.380.99–4.63safer0.07–2.510.41–2.620.48–5.14actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
47%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.924.609.52safe3.06–6.772.90–6.315.96–13.08safer2.56–7.272.43–6.784.99–14.05actual2.003.005.00
Total shots
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4713.2926.76safe9.77–17.179.91–16.6719.68–33.85safer8.74–18.218.98–17.6017.72–35.81actual9.0014.0023.00
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction9.128.7017.82safe6.60–11.636.40–11.0013.00–22.64safer5.74–12.505.60–11.8011.34–24.30actual8.0011.0019.00
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.853.597.44safe2.26–5.432.18–5.004.44–10.44safer1.73–5.971.69–5.493.42–11.46actual2.002.004.00
Corners
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.774.749.52safe2.57–6.982.77–6.725.33–13.70safer1.97–7.572.23–7.264.20–14.83actual1.004.005.00
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction52.7747.33safe46.45–59.0841.01–53.64safer44.85–60.6839.41–55.24actual49.0051.00
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction465423888safe399–530359–488758–1018safer382–548341–505723–1053actual477454931
Pass accuracy %
84%
14%
homeawayprediction77.5269.17safe73.31–81.7464.66–73.67safer72.01–83.0463.33–75.00
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0412.4723.51safe8.18–13.909.53–15.4217.71–29.31safer7.30–14.788.61–16.3415.91–31.12actual7.0016.0023.00
Offsides
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.732.113.84safe0.52–2.940.94–3.271.47–6.21safer0.18–3.290.61–3.600.79–6.89actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
26%
18%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.594.34safe0.69–2.811.47–3.712.17–6.52safer0.42–3.081.18–4.001.60–7.08actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
14%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.170.120.28safe0.01–0.320.00–0.310.00–0.63safer0.00–0.470.00–0.450.00–0.93actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.812.865.67safe1.40–4.231.30–4.412.70–8.64safer1.01–4.620.87–4.841.88–9.46actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.33–2.25 0.07–2.51 | 0.00 | 1.52 0.66–2.38 0.41–2.62 | 1.00 | 2.81 0.99–4.63 0.48–5.14 | 1.00 | 32% 25% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.92 3.06–6.77 2.56–7.27 | 2.00 | 4.60 2.90–6.31 2.43–6.78 | 3.00 | 9.52 5.96–13.08 4.99–14.05 | 5.00 | 47% 13% 39% |
| Total shots | 13.47 9.77–17.17 8.74–18.21 | 9.00 | 13.29 9.91–16.67 8.98–17.60 | 14.00 | 26.76 19.68–33.85 17.72–35.81 | 23.00 | 47% 45% |
| Shots in box | 9.12 6.60–11.63 5.74–12.50 | 8.00 | 8.70 6.40–11.00 5.60–11.80 | 11.00 | 17.82 13.00–22.64 11.34–24.30 | 19.00 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.85 2.26–5.43 1.73–5.97 | 2.00 | 3.59 2.18–5.00 1.69–5.49 | 2.00 | 7.44 4.44–10.44 3.42–11.46 | 4.00 | 46% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 4.77 2.57–6.98 1.97–7.57 | 1.00 | 4.74 2.77–6.72 2.23–7.26 | 4.00 | 9.52 5.33–13.70 4.20–14.83 | 5.00 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Possession % | 52.77 46.45–59.08 44.85–60.68 | 49.00 | 47.33 41.01–53.64 39.41–55.24 | 51.00 | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 465 399–530 382–548 | 477 | 423 359–488 341–505 | 454 | 888 758–1018 723–1053 | 931 | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.52 73.31–81.74 72.01–83.04 | — | 69.17 64.66–73.67 63.33–75.00 | — | — | — | 84% 14% |
| Fouls | 11.04 8.18–13.90 7.30–14.78 | 7.00 | 12.47 9.53–15.42 8.61–16.34 | 16.00 | 23.51 17.71–29.31 15.91–31.12 | 23.00 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.52–2.94 0.18–3.29 | 2.00 | 2.11 0.94–3.27 0.61–3.60 | 2.00 | 3.84 1.47–6.21 0.79–6.89 | 4.00 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.69–2.81 0.42–3.08 | 1.00 | 2.59 1.47–3.71 1.18–4.00 | 1.00 | 4.34 2.17–6.52 1.60–7.08 | 2.00 | 26% 18% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.17 0.01–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.93 | 0.00 | 14% 77% |
| GK saves | 2.81 1.40–4.23 1.01–4.62 | 2.00 | 2.86 1.30–4.41 0.87–4.84 | 2.00 | 5.67 2.70–8.64 1.88–9.46 | 4.00 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.