Superliga·Regular Season - 9·
Superliga·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: J. Hansen
Goals
29%
26%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.502.64safe0.17–2.100.65–2.360.82–4.46safer0.00–2.360.40–2.610.31–4.97actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.614.348.95safe2.75–6.462.63–6.045.38–12.51safer2.25–6.962.16–6.514.41–13.48actual5.003.008.00
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2712.1625.43safe9.57–16.978.79–15.5418.35–32.51safer8.53–18.007.85–16.4716.39–34.48actual20.0014.0034.00
Shots in box
32%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction7.568.9716.53safe5.04–10.086.67–11.2711.71–21.35safer4.18–10.945.87–12.0710.05–23.01actual10.009.0019.00
Blocked shots
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.143.416.55safe1.56–4.722.00–4.823.55–9.55safer1.02–5.261.51–5.312.53–10.57actual6.002.008.00
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.955.1410.09safe2.75–7.163.16–7.125.91–14.28safer2.15–7.752.63–7.664.78–15.41actual3.002.005.00
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction52.2046.65safe45.88–58.5240.33–52.97safer44.28–60.1138.74–54.57actual53.0047.00
Passes
63%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction449409857safe383–514344–473728–987safer366–532327–491692–1023actual485429914
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction71.0471.26safe66.83–75.2666.75–75.76safer65.53–76.5665.42–77.09
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0213.6926.70safe10.16–15.8810.74–16.6320.90–32.51safer9.28–16.769.82–17.5519.10–34.31actual17.006.0023.00
Offsides
41%
23%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.633.39safe0.55–2.970.46–2.791.02–5.76safer0.21–3.310.13–3.120.34–6.44actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
42%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.004.09safe1.03–3.150.87–3.121.91–6.26safer0.76–3.420.58–3.411.35–6.82actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.150.20safe0.00–0.210.00–0.340.00–0.55safer0.00–0.360.00–0.490.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.733.055.77safe1.31–4.141.49–4.602.81–8.74safer0.92–4.531.06–5.031.99–9.56actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.17–2.10 0.00–2.36 | 2.00 | 1.50 0.65–2.36 0.40–2.61 | 2.00 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.31–4.97 | 4.00 | 29% 26% 46% |
| Shots on target | 4.61 2.75–6.46 2.25–6.96 | 5.00 | 4.34 2.63–6.04 2.16–6.51 | 3.00 | 8.95 5.38–12.51 4.41–13.48 | 8.00 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Total shots | 13.27 9.57–16.97 8.53–18.00 | 20.00 | 12.16 8.79–15.54 7.85–16.47 | 14.00 | 25.43 18.35–32.51 16.39–34.48 | 34.00 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 7.56 5.04–10.08 4.18–10.94 | 10.00 | 8.97 6.67–11.27 5.87–12.07 | 9.00 | 16.53 11.71–21.35 10.05–23.01 | 19.00 | 32% 59% |
| Blocked shots | 3.14 1.56–4.72 1.02–5.26 | 6.00 | 3.41 2.00–4.82 1.51–5.31 | 2.00 | 6.55 3.55–9.55 2.53–10.57 | 8.00 | 38% 16% 46% |
| Corners | 4.95 2.75–7.16 2.15–7.75 | 3.00 | 5.14 3.16–7.12 2.63–7.66 | 2.00 | 10.09 5.91–14.28 4.78–15.41 | 5.00 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 52.20 45.88–58.52 44.28–60.11 | 53.00 | 46.65 40.33–52.97 38.74–54.57 | 47.00 | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 449 383–514 366–532 | 485 | 409 344–473 327–491 | 429 | 857 728–987 692–1023 | 914 | 63% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.04 66.83–75.26 65.53–76.56 | — | 71.26 66.75–75.76 65.42–77.09 | — | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 13.02 10.16–15.88 9.28–16.76 | 17.00 | 13.69 10.74–16.63 9.82–17.55 | 6.00 | 26.70 20.90–32.51 19.10–34.31 | 23.00 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.55–2.97 0.21–3.31 | 1.00 | 1.63 0.46–2.79 0.13–3.12 | 0.00 | 3.39 1.02–5.76 0.34–6.44 | 1.00 | 41% 23% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.03–3.15 0.76–3.42 | 2.00 | 2.00 0.87–3.12 0.58–3.41 | 2.00 | 4.09 1.91–6.26 1.35–6.82 | 4.00 | 42% 20% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.49 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 82% 13% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.31–4.14 0.92–4.53 | 1.00 | 3.05 1.49–4.60 1.06–5.03 | 3.00 | 5.77 2.81–8.74 1.99–9.56 | 4.00 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.