Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: S. Putros
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.102.53safe0.48–2.400.24–1.960.71–4.36safer0.22–2.660.00–2.200.21–4.86actual0.004.004.00
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.083.588.65safe3.22–6.931.87–5.295.09–12.22safer2.72–7.431.40–5.754.12–13.19actual2.006.008.00
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1410.4725.61safe11.44–18.847.09–13.8518.53–32.69safer10.41–19.886.16–14.7816.57–34.65actual7.0013.0020.00
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction9.437.9017.34safe6.92–11.955.60–10.2112.52–22.16safer6.05–12.814.81–11.0010.86–23.82actual4.006.0010.00
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.813.267.07safe2.23–5.391.85–4.684.08–10.07safer1.69–5.931.36–5.163.05–11.09actual2.003.005.00
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.684.4210.10safe3.47–7.882.44–6.405.91–14.28safer2.87–8.481.91–6.944.78–15.41actual7.001.008.00
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction50.8149.41safe44.49–57.1243.09–55.73safer42.89–58.7241.49–57.33actual46.0054.00
Passes
39%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction442473914safe376–507408–537784–1044safer359–525390–555749–1079actual4715921063
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction70.4769.52safe66.25–74.6865.01–74.03safer64.95–75.9863.68–75.36
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3511.5423.89safe9.50–15.218.59–14.4818.09–29.69safer8.61–16.107.67–15.4016.28–31.50actual9.0014.0023.00
Offsides
51%
22%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.443.43safe0.79–3.210.27–2.601.06–5.81safer0.45–3.550.00–2.930.39–6.48actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.823.54safe0.67–2.780.70–2.941.37–5.72safer0.40–3.050.41–3.230.81–6.28actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.200.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.77actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
29%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.473.265.73safe1.06–3.891.70–4.812.76–8.70safer0.67–4.281.27–5.241.94–9.52actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.48–2.40 0.22–2.66 | 0.00 | 1.10 0.24–1.96 0.00–2.20 | 4.00 | 2.53 0.71–4.36 0.21–4.86 | 4.00 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.08 3.22–6.93 2.72–7.43 | 2.00 | 3.58 1.87–5.29 1.40–5.75 | 6.00 | 8.65 5.09–12.22 4.12–13.19 | 8.00 | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 15.14 11.44–18.84 10.41–19.88 | 7.00 | 10.47 7.09–13.85 6.16–14.78 | 13.00 | 25.61 18.53–32.69 16.57–34.65 | 20.00 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 9.43 6.92–11.95 6.05–12.81 | 4.00 | 7.90 5.60–10.21 4.81–11.00 | 6.00 | 17.34 12.52–22.16 10.86–23.82 | 10.00 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 3.81 2.23–5.39 1.69–5.93 | 2.00 | 3.26 1.85–4.68 1.36–5.16 | 3.00 | 7.07 4.08–10.07 3.05–11.09 | 5.00 | 50% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.68 3.47–7.88 2.87–8.48 | 7.00 | 4.42 2.44–6.40 1.91–6.94 | 1.00 | 10.10 5.91–14.28 4.78–15.41 | 8.00 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 50.81 44.49–57.12 42.89–58.72 | 46.00 | 49.41 43.09–55.73 41.49–57.33 | 54.00 | — | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 442 376–507 359–525 | 471 | 473 408–537 390–555 | 592 | 914 784–1044 749–1079 | 1063 | 39% 60% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.47 66.25–74.68 64.95–75.98 | — | 69.52 65.01–74.03 63.68–75.36 | — | — | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 12.35 9.50–15.21 8.61–16.10 | 9.00 | 11.54 8.59–14.48 7.67–15.40 | 14.00 | 23.89 18.09–29.69 16.28–31.50 | 23.00 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.79–3.21 0.45–3.55 | 2.00 | 1.44 0.27–2.60 0.00–2.93 | 2.00 | 3.43 1.06–5.81 0.39–6.48 | 4.00 | 51% 22% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.78 0.40–3.05 | 2.00 | 1.82 0.70–2.94 0.41–3.23 | 2.00 | 3.54 1.37–5.72 0.81–6.28 | 4.00 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.36 | 1.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 1.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.47 1.06–3.89 0.67–4.28 | 2.00 | 3.26 1.70–4.81 1.27–5.24 | 2.00 | 5.73 2.76–8.70 1.94–9.52 | 4.00 | 29% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+