Superliga·Regular Season - 9·
Superliga·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: A. Uslu
Goals
35%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.623.10safe0.51–2.440.76–2.481.27–4.92safer0.25–2.700.52–2.730.77–5.43actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.854.589.43safe3.00–6.712.87–6.295.87–13.00safer2.50–7.212.40–6.764.90–13.97actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0113.8825.88safe8.30–15.7110.50–17.2618.80–32.97safer7.27–16.749.57–18.1916.84–34.93actual19.006.0025.00
Shots in box
43%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction9.039.2518.29safe6.52–11.556.95–11.5613.47–23.11safer5.65–12.426.16–12.3511.81–24.77actual9.004.0013.00
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.883.647.53safe2.30–5.472.23–5.064.53–10.53safer1.76–6.001.74–5.543.51–11.55actual9.001.0010.00
Corners
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.894.859.74safe2.68–7.092.88–6.835.56–13.93safer2.09–7.692.34–7.374.43–15.06actual9.002.0011.00
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.7150.21safe44.39–57.0343.89–56.52safer42.79–58.6242.29–58.12actual63.0037.00
Passes
52%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction444437881safe378–509372–501751–1011safer361–527355–519716–1046actual561327888
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction69.8268.86safe65.60–74.0364.35–73.37safer64.30–75.3363.02–74.70
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2113.0623.27safe7.35–13.0710.12–16.0117.47–29.07safer6.47–13.959.20–16.9315.67–30.88actual19.0010.0029.00
Offsides
20%
17%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.854.47safe0.42–2.831.68–4.012.10–6.84safer0.07–3.181.35–4.341.42–7.52actual4.001.005.00
Yellow cards
38%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.863.65safe0.73–2.840.74–2.981.48–5.83safer0.46–3.120.45–3.270.91–6.39actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.82actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.732.765.49safe1.31–4.141.21–4.322.52–8.46safer0.92–4.530.78–4.751.70–9.28actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.44 0.25–2.70 | 1.00 | 1.62 0.76–2.48 0.52–2.73 | 1.00 | 3.10 1.27–4.92 0.77–5.43 | 2.00 | 35% 24% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.85 3.00–6.71 2.50–7.21 | 4.00 | 4.58 2.87–6.29 2.40–6.76 | 3.00 | 9.43 5.87–13.00 4.90–13.97 | 7.00 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Total shots | 12.01 8.30–15.71 7.27–16.74 | 19.00 | 13.88 10.50–17.26 9.57–18.19 | 6.00 | 25.88 18.80–32.97 16.84–34.93 | 25.00 | 32% 61% |
| Shots in box | 9.03 6.52–11.55 5.65–12.42 | 9.00 | 9.25 6.95–11.56 6.16–12.35 | 4.00 | 18.29 13.47–23.11 11.81–24.77 | 13.00 | 43% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.88 2.30–5.47 1.76–6.00 | 9.00 | 3.64 2.23–5.06 1.74–5.54 | 1.00 | 7.53 4.53–10.53 3.51–11.55 | 10.00 | 46% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 4.89 2.68–7.09 2.09–7.69 | 9.00 | 4.85 2.88–6.83 2.34–7.37 | 2.00 | 9.74 5.56–13.93 4.43–15.06 | 11.00 | 44% 43% |
| Possession % | 50.71 44.39–57.03 42.79–58.62 | 63.00 | 50.21 43.89–56.52 42.29–58.12 | 37.00 | — | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 444 378–509 361–527 | 561 | 437 372–501 355–519 | 327 | 881 751–1011 716–1046 | 888 | 52% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.82 65.60–74.03 64.30–75.33 | — | 68.86 64.35–73.37 63.02–74.70 | — | — | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 10.21 7.35–13.07 6.47–13.95 | 19.00 | 13.06 10.12–16.01 9.20–16.93 | 10.00 | 23.27 17.47–29.07 15.67–30.88 | 29.00 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.42–2.83 0.07–3.18 | 4.00 | 2.85 1.68–4.01 1.35–4.34 | 1.00 | 4.47 2.10–6.84 1.42–7.52 | 5.00 | 20% 17% 63% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.73–2.84 0.46–3.12 | 2.00 | 1.86 0.74–2.98 0.45–3.27 | 1.00 | 3.65 1.48–5.83 0.91–6.39 | 3.00 | 38% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 1.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 1.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.31–4.14 0.92–4.53 | 2.00 | 2.76 1.21–4.32 0.78–4.75 | 3.00 | 5.49 2.52–8.46 1.70–9.28 | 5.00 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+