Superliga·Regular Season - 9·
Superliga·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: J. Maae
Goals
38%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.272.60safe0.36–2.290.41–2.130.78–4.42safer0.10–2.550.17–2.380.27–4.93actual4.002.006.00
Shots on target
34%
13%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.094.828.91safe2.24–5.953.11–6.525.35–12.47safer1.74–6.452.64–6.994.38–13.44actual7.006.0013.00
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3514.4127.76safe9.65–17.0611.03–17.7920.68–34.85safer8.62–18.0910.10–18.7218.72–36.81actual10.0014.0024.00
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction8.928.4917.40safe6.40–11.446.18–10.7912.59–22.22safer5.54–12.305.39–11.5810.93–23.88actual7.009.0016.00
Blocked shots
47%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.923.647.55safe2.33–5.502.22–5.054.56–10.55safer1.80–6.041.74–5.543.54–11.57actual1.003.004.00
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.055.0910.14safe2.85–7.263.11–7.065.95–14.32safer2.25–7.852.57–7.604.82–15.45actual5.004.009.00
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction45.1855.75safe38.86–51.5049.43–62.07safer37.27–53.0947.83–63.67actual39.0061.00
Passes
23%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction372458830safe307–438393–522700–960safer289–455375–540665–995actual377584961
Pass accuracy %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction65.9170.05safe61.69–70.1265.54–74.56safer60.39–71.4364.21–75.89
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6612.3123.97safe8.80–14.529.36–15.2518.16–29.77safer7.92–15.408.44–16.1716.36–31.57actual15.007.0022.00
Offsides
47%
24%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.282.98safe0.49–2.910.12–2.440.61–5.35safer0.15–3.250.00–2.770.00–6.03actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.903.66safe0.70–2.820.78–3.021.48–5.83safer0.43–3.090.49–3.310.92–6.40actual3.000.003.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.090.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.752.845.58safe1.33–4.161.28–4.392.61–8.55safer0.94–4.550.85–4.821.79–9.37actual4.003.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.29 0.10–2.55 | 4.00 | 1.27 0.41–2.13 0.17–2.38 | 2.00 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.27–4.93 | 6.00 | 38% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.09 2.24–5.95 1.74–6.45 | 7.00 | 4.82 3.11–6.52 2.64–6.99 | 6.00 | 8.91 5.35–12.47 4.38–13.44 | 13.00 | 34% 13% 53% |
| Total shots | 13.35 9.65–17.06 8.62–18.09 | 10.00 | 14.41 11.03–17.79 10.10–18.72 | 14.00 | 27.76 20.68–34.85 18.72–36.81 | 24.00 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 8.92 6.40–11.44 5.54–12.30 | 7.00 | 8.49 6.18–10.79 5.39–11.58 | 9.00 | 17.40 12.59–22.22 10.93–23.88 | 16.00 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.92 2.33–5.50 1.80–6.04 | 1.00 | 3.64 2.22–5.05 1.74–5.54 | 3.00 | 7.55 4.56–10.55 3.54–11.57 | 4.00 | 47% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 5.05 2.85–7.26 2.25–7.85 | 5.00 | 5.09 3.11–7.06 2.57–7.60 | 4.00 | 10.14 5.95–14.32 4.82–15.45 | 9.00 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 45.18 38.86–51.50 37.27–53.09 | 39.00 | 55.75 49.43–62.07 47.83–63.67 | 61.00 | — | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 372 307–438 289–455 | 377 | 458 393–522 375–540 | 584 | 830 700–960 665–995 | 961 | 23% 77% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.91 61.69–70.12 60.39–71.43 | — | 70.05 65.54–74.56 64.21–75.89 | — | — | — | 28% 67% |
| Fouls | 11.66 8.80–14.52 7.92–15.40 | 15.00 | 12.31 9.36–15.25 8.44–16.17 | 7.00 | 23.97 18.16–29.77 16.36–31.57 | 22.00 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.49–2.91 0.15–3.25 | 2.00 | 1.28 0.12–2.44 0.00–2.77 | 1.00 | 2.98 0.61–5.35 0.00–6.03 | 3.00 | 47% 24% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.70–2.82 0.43–3.09 | 3.00 | 1.90 0.78–3.02 0.49–3.31 | 0.00 | 3.66 1.48–5.83 0.92–6.40 | 3.00 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.75 1.33–4.16 0.94–4.55 | 4.00 | 2.84 1.28–4.39 0.85–4.82 | 3.00 | 5.58 2.61–8.55 1.79–9.37 | 7.00 | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+