Superliga·Regular Season - 9·
Superliga·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: L. Graagaard
Goals
32%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.442.66safe0.26–2.190.58–2.300.84–4.48safer0.00–2.450.33–2.540.33–4.99actual4.001.005.00
Shots on target
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.474.498.97safe2.62–6.332.79–6.205.40–12.53safer2.12–6.832.32–6.674.44–13.50actual6.002.008.00
Total shots
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6013.4327.03safe9.89–17.3010.05–16.8119.95–34.11safer8.86–18.339.12–17.7417.99–36.07actual18.0014.0032.00
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction8.568.6617.23safe6.05–11.086.36–10.9612.41–22.04safer5.18–11.945.57–11.7610.75–23.70actual15.0010.0025.00
Blocked shots
41%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.813.937.74safe2.22–5.392.52–5.354.74–10.74safer1.69–5.922.03–5.843.72–11.76actual3.006.009.00
Corners
40%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.745.069.80safe2.53–6.953.08–7.035.61–13.98safer1.94–7.542.54–7.574.48–15.11actual4.005.009.00
Possession %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction43.7255.85safe37.40–50.0449.53–62.17safer35.80–51.6347.93–63.77actual48.0052.00
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction414562977safe349–480498–627847–1106safer331–497480–644811–1142actual4995501049
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction69.2571.40safe65.04–73.4766.90–75.91safer63.74–74.7765.57–77.24
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2111.9922.20safe7.35–13.079.05–14.9416.40–28.00safer6.47–13.958.13–15.8614.60–29.81actual9.0010.0019.00
Offsides
42%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.553.28safe0.52–2.940.39–2.710.91–5.66safer0.18–3.290.06–3.050.23–6.33actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.883.52safe0.59–2.700.76–3.001.35–5.70safer0.32–2.970.47–3.290.79–6.26actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.200.00–0.270.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
48%
18%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.852.425.27safe1.43–4.260.87–3.982.30–8.24safer1.05–4.650.44–4.411.48–9.06actual1.002.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.26–2.19 0.00–2.45 | 4.00 | 1.44 0.58–2.30 0.33–2.54 | 1.00 | 2.66 0.84–4.48 0.33–4.99 | 5.00 | 32% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.47 2.62–6.33 2.12–6.83 | 6.00 | 4.49 2.79–6.20 2.32–6.67 | 2.00 | 8.97 5.40–12.53 4.44–13.50 | 8.00 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Total shots | 13.60 9.89–17.30 8.86–18.33 | 18.00 | 13.43 10.05–16.81 9.12–17.74 | 14.00 | 27.03 19.95–34.11 17.99–36.07 | 32.00 | 47% 45% |
| Shots in box | 8.56 6.05–11.08 5.18–11.94 | 15.00 | 8.66 6.36–10.96 5.57–11.76 | 10.00 | 17.23 12.41–22.04 10.75–23.70 | 25.00 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.81 2.22–5.39 1.69–5.92 | 3.00 | 3.93 2.52–5.35 2.03–5.84 | 6.00 | 7.74 4.74–10.74 3.72–11.76 | 9.00 | 41% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 4.74 2.53–6.95 1.94–7.54 | 4.00 | 5.06 3.08–7.03 2.54–7.57 | 5.00 | 9.80 5.61–13.98 4.48–15.11 | 9.00 | 40% 48% |
| Possession % | 43.72 37.40–50.04 35.80–51.63 | 48.00 | 55.85 49.53–62.17 47.93–63.77 | 52.00 | — | — | 20% 76% |
| Passes | 414 349–480 331–497 | 499 | 562 498–627 480–644 | 550 | 977 847–1106 811–1142 | 1049 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.25 65.04–73.47 63.74–74.77 | — | 71.40 66.90–75.91 65.57–77.24 | — | — | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 10.21 7.35–13.07 6.47–13.95 | 9.00 | 11.99 9.05–14.94 8.13–15.86 | 10.00 | 22.20 16.40–28.00 14.60–29.81 | 19.00 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.52–2.94 0.18–3.29 | 1.00 | 1.55 0.39–2.71 0.06–3.05 | 2.00 | 3.28 0.91–5.66 0.23–6.33 | 3.00 | 42% 23% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.70 0.32–2.97 | 0.00 | 1.88 0.76–3.00 0.47–3.29 | 2.00 | 3.52 1.35–5.70 0.79–6.26 | 2.00 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.43–4.26 1.05–4.65 | 1.00 | 2.42 0.87–3.98 0.44–4.41 | 2.00 | 5.27 2.30–8.24 1.48–9.06 | 3.00 | 48% 18% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+