Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.443.02safe0.62–2.550.58–2.291.20–4.85safer0.36–2.800.36–2.520.72–5.33
Shots on target
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.174.679.84safe3.31–7.032.92–6.416.23–13.44safer2.82–7.522.46–6.875.28–14.40
Total shots
55%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0912.9427.03safe10.17–18.029.38–16.5019.55–34.52safer9.08–19.118.42–17.4617.49–36.57
Shots in box
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction9.968.3218.28safe7.02–12.915.64–11.0012.66–23.91safer6.19–13.744.90–11.7411.09–25.47
Blocked shots
49%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.623.186.80safe1.74–5.501.52–4.833.26–10.33safer1.19–6.041.03–5.322.23–11.37
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.534.7610.29safe3.32–7.742.76–6.766.07–14.50safer2.74–8.322.22–7.294.96–15.61
Possession %
43%
53%
homeawayprediction49.1451.27safe42.35–55.9344.48–58.05safer40.68–57.6042.81–59.72
Passes
44%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction462480942safe395–529413–546808–1075safer377–547396–564772–1111
Pass accuracy %
27%
68%
homeawayprediction70.7374.91safe66.70–74.7670.59–79.23safer65.41–76.0569.28–80.54
Fouls
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3311.0324.36safe10.49–16.168.09–13.9818.58–30.14safer9.73–16.927.34–14.7317.07–31.65
Offsides
42%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.923.94safe0.87–3.190.82–3.011.69–6.20safer0.57–3.490.54–3.301.10–6.79
Yellow cards
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.934.04safe1.06–3.160.80–3.061.86–6.22safer0.80–3.430.51–3.351.31–6.78
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.090.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.430.00–0.410.00–0.84
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.003.366.36safe1.56–4.431.80–4.923.37–9.35safer1.17–4.821.38–5.342.55–10.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 0.62–2.55 0.36–2.80 | 1.44 0.58–2.29 0.36–2.52 | 3.02 1.20–4.85 0.72–5.33 | 41% 24% 35% |
| Shots on target | 5.17 3.31–7.03 2.82–7.52 | 4.67 2.92–6.41 2.46–6.87 | 9.84 6.23–13.44 5.28–14.40 | 50% 37% |
| Total shots | 14.09 10.17–18.02 9.08–19.11 | 12.94 9.38–16.50 8.42–17.46 | 27.03 19.55–34.52 17.49–36.57 | 55% 38% |
| Shots in box | 9.96 7.02–12.91 6.19–13.74 | 8.32 5.64–11.00 4.90–11.74 | 18.28 12.66–23.91 11.09–25.47 | 61% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 3.62 1.74–5.50 1.19–6.04 | 3.18 1.52–4.83 1.03–5.32 | 6.80 3.26–10.33 2.23–11.37 | 49% 15% 36% |
| Corners | 5.53 3.32–7.74 2.74–8.32 | 4.76 2.76–6.76 2.22–7.29 | 10.29 6.07–14.50 4.96–15.61 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 49.14 42.35–55.93 40.68–57.60 | 51.27 44.48–58.05 42.81–59.72 | — | 43% 53% |
| Passes | 462 395–529 377–547 | 480 413–546 396–564 | 942 808–1075 772–1111 | 44% 56% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.73 66.70–74.76 65.41–76.05 | 74.91 70.59–79.23 69.28–80.54 | — | 27% 68% |
| Fouls | 13.33 10.49–16.16 9.73–16.92 | 11.03 8.09–13.98 7.34–14.73 | 24.36 18.58–30.14 17.07–31.65 | 64% 29% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.87–3.19 0.57–3.49 | 1.92 0.82–3.01 0.54–3.30 | 3.94 1.69–6.20 1.10–6.79 | 42% 21% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 2.11 1.06–3.16 0.80–3.43 | 1.93 0.80–3.06 0.51–3.35 | 4.04 1.86–6.22 1.31–6.78 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.56–4.43 1.17–4.82 | 3.36 1.80–4.92 1.38–5.34 | 6.36 3.37–9.35 2.55–10.16 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.