Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Alberto Ruben Arena · Italy
Goals
54%
23%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.052.82safe0.81–2.730.19–1.911.00–4.64safer0.55–2.990.00–2.150.49–5.15actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.273.809.07safe3.42–7.132.09–5.505.51–12.63safer2.92–7.631.62–5.974.54–13.60actual4.005.009.00
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9811.6626.65safe11.28–18.698.29–15.0419.57–33.73safer10.25–19.727.35–15.9717.60–35.69actual22.005.0027.00
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.316.9317.24safe7.79–12.824.63–9.2312.42–22.06safer6.93–13.693.83–10.0310.76–23.72actual13.003.0016.00
Blocked shots
66%
13%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.302.737.04safe2.72–5.891.32–4.154.04–10.03safer2.19–6.420.83–4.633.02–11.06actual8.000.008.00
Corners
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.613.589.18safe3.40–7.811.60–5.555.00–13.37safer2.81–8.411.06–6.093.87–14.50actual3.002.005.00
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction59.4641.89safe53.14–65.7835.57–48.21safer51.55–67.3833.97–49.80actual61.0039.00
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction582412994safe517–647347–476864–1124safer499–665330–494829–1159actual6964421138
Pass accuracy %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction89.4085.36safe85.18–93.6180.85–89.87safer83.88–94.9179.52–91.20actual91.0085.00
Fouls
21%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3713.8324.20safe7.51–13.2210.88–16.7818.39–30.00safer6.62–14.119.97–17.6916.59–31.80actual9.008.0017.00
Offsides
26%
24%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.672.82safe0.00–2.360.51–2.840.45–5.19safer0.00–2.700.18–3.170.00–5.87actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
26%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.392.063.45safe0.34–2.450.94–3.181.27–5.62safer0.06–2.720.65–3.470.71–6.19actual0.000.000.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
25%
15%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.563.716.27safe1.15–3.972.16–5.273.31–9.24safer0.76–4.361.73–5.702.48–10.06actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 0.81–2.73 0.55–2.99 | 1.00 | 1.05 0.19–1.91 0.00–2.15 | 2.00 | 2.82 1.00–4.64 0.49–5.15 | 3.00 | 54% 23% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.27 3.42–7.13 2.92–7.63 | 4.00 | 3.80 2.09–5.50 1.62–5.97 | 5.00 | 9.07 5.51–12.63 4.54–13.60 | 9.00 | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 14.98 11.28–18.69 10.25–19.72 | 22.00 | 11.66 8.29–15.04 7.35–15.97 | 5.00 | 26.65 19.57–33.73 17.60–35.69 | 27.00 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 10.31 7.79–12.82 6.93–13.69 | 13.00 | 6.93 4.63–9.23 3.83–10.03 | 3.00 | 17.24 12.42–22.06 10.76–23.72 | 16.00 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.30 2.72–5.89 2.19–6.42 | 8.00 | 2.73 1.32–4.15 0.83–4.63 | 0.00 | 7.04 4.04–10.03 3.02–11.06 | 8.00 | 66% 13% 21% |
| Corners | 5.61 3.40–7.81 2.81–8.41 | 3.00 | 3.58 1.60–5.55 1.06–6.09 | 2.00 | 9.18 5.00–13.37 3.87–14.50 | 5.00 | 69% 20% |
| Possession % | 59.46 53.14–65.78 51.55–67.38 | 61.00 | 41.89 35.57–48.21 33.97–49.80 | 39.00 | — | — | 85% |
| Passes | 582 517–647 499–665 | 696 | 412 347–476 330–494 | 442 | 994 864–1124 829–1159 | 1138 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 89.40 85.18–93.61 83.88–94.91 | 91.00 | 85.36 80.85–89.87 79.52–91.20 | 85.00 | — | — | 67% 29% |
| Fouls | 10.37 7.51–13.22 6.62–14.11 | 9.00 | 13.83 10.88–16.78 9.97–17.69 | 8.00 | 24.20 18.39–30.00 16.59–31.80 | 17.00 | 21% 73% |
| Offsides | 1.15 0.00–2.36 0.00–2.70 | 1.00 | 1.67 0.51–2.84 0.18–3.17 | 2.00 | 2.82 0.45–5.19 0.00–5.87 | 3.00 | 26% 24% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 1.39 0.34–2.45 0.06–2.72 | 0.00 | 2.06 0.94–3.18 0.65–3.47 | 0.00 | 3.45 1.27–5.62 0.71–6.19 | 0.00 | 26% 21% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.56 1.15–3.97 0.76–4.36 | 3.00 | 3.71 2.16–5.27 1.73–5.70 | 3.00 | 6.27 3.31–9.24 2.48–10.06 | 6.00 | 25% 15% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+