Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Giuseppe Mucera · Italy
Goals
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.140.752.89safe1.18–3.100.00–1.611.07–4.71safer0.92–3.360.00–1.860.56–5.22actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
89%
homeawaytotalprediction6.932.679.60safe5.07–8.780.96–4.386.03–13.16safer4.57–9.280.49–4.845.06–14.13actual7.004.0011.00
Total shots
98%
homeawaytotalprediction19.138.0827.22safe15.43–22.844.71–11.4620.14–34.30safer14.40–23.873.78–12.3918.18–36.26actual28.0012.0040.00
Shots in box
96%
homeawaytotalprediction12.725.1717.89safe10.20–15.232.87–7.4713.07–22.70safer9.34–16.102.07–8.2711.41–24.37actual24.007.0031.00
Blocked shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction5.021.796.81safe3.44–6.610.37–3.203.81–9.81safer2.90–7.140.00–3.692.79–10.83actual12.001.0013.00
Corners
87%
homeawaytotalprediction7.013.0110.02safe4.81–9.221.03–4.985.84–14.20safer4.21–9.810.49–5.524.70–15.34actual11.004.0015.00
Possession %
95%
homeawayprediction63.6636.30safe57.34–69.9829.98–42.62safer55.74–71.5728.39–44.22actual64.0036.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction614326940safe548–679261–391810–1070safer531–697244–408775–1105actual6523631015
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction87.4577.18safe83.24–91.6772.68–81.69safer81.94–92.9771.35–83.02actual90.0081.00
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6512.7623.41safe7.79–13.509.81–15.7017.60–29.21safer6.90–14.398.90–16.6215.80–31.01actual8.004.0012.00
Offsides
21%
19%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.402.393.78safe0.19–2.601.23–3.551.41–6.16safer0.00–2.950.89–3.880.74–6.83actual4.002.006.00
Yellow cards
25%
21%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.412.133.53safe0.35–2.461.01–3.251.36–5.71safer0.08–2.730.72–3.540.79–6.27actual1.000.001.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.100.14safe0.00–0.190.00–0.290.00–0.48safer0.00–0.340.00–0.440.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
81%
homeawaytotalprediction1.894.546.43safe0.47–3.302.99–6.103.46–9.40safer0.08–3.692.56–6.532.64–10.22actual3.005.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.14 1.18–3.10 0.92–3.36 | 2.00 | 0.75 0.00–1.61 0.00–1.86 | 1.00 | 2.89 1.07–4.71 0.56–5.22 | 3.00 | 69% 19% |
| Shots on target | 6.93 5.07–8.78 4.57–9.28 | 7.00 | 2.67 0.96–4.38 0.49–4.84 | 4.00 | 9.60 6.03–13.16 5.06–14.13 | 11.00 | 89% |
| Total shots | 19.13 15.43–22.84 14.40–23.87 | 28.00 | 8.08 4.71–11.46 3.78–12.39 | 12.00 | 27.22 20.14–34.30 18.18–36.26 | 40.00 | 98% |
| Shots in box | 12.72 10.20–15.23 9.34–16.10 | 24.00 | 5.17 2.87–7.47 2.07–8.27 | 7.00 | 17.89 13.07–22.70 11.41–24.37 | 31.00 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 5.02 3.44–6.61 2.90–7.14 | 12.00 | 1.79 0.37–3.20 0.00–3.69 | 1.00 | 6.81 3.81–9.81 2.79–10.83 | 13.00 | 86% |
| Corners | 7.01 4.81–9.22 4.21–9.81 | 11.00 | 3.01 1.03–4.98 0.49–5.52 | 4.00 | 10.02 5.84–14.20 4.70–15.34 | 15.00 | 87% |
| Possession % | 63.66 57.34–69.98 55.74–71.57 | 64.00 | 36.30 29.98–42.62 28.39–44.22 | 36.00 | — | — | 95% |
| Passes | 614 548–679 531–697 | 652 | 326 261–391 244–408 | 363 | 940 810–1070 775–1105 | 1015 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.45 83.24–91.67 81.94–92.97 | 90.00 | 77.18 72.68–81.69 71.35–83.02 | 81.00 | — | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 10.65 7.79–13.50 6.90–14.39 | 8.00 | 12.76 9.81–15.70 8.90–16.62 | 4.00 | 23.41 17.60–29.21 15.80–31.01 | 12.00 | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.40 0.19–2.60 0.00–2.95 | 4.00 | 2.39 1.23–3.55 0.89–3.88 | 2.00 | 3.78 1.41–6.16 0.74–6.83 | 6.00 | 21% 19% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 1.41 0.35–2.46 0.08–2.73 | 1.00 | 2.13 1.01–3.25 0.72–3.54 | 0.00 | 3.53 1.36–5.71 0.79–6.27 | 1.00 | 25% 21% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 1.89 0.47–3.30 0.08–3.69 | 3.00 | 4.54 2.99–6.10 2.56–6.53 | 5.00 | 6.43 3.46–9.40 2.64–10.22 | 8.00 | 81% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.