Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Antonio Rapuano · Italy
Goals
55%
24%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.700.952.65safe0.74–2.670.09–1.810.83–4.47safer0.48–2.930.00–2.050.32–4.98actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.543.759.29safe3.68–7.392.04–5.465.72–12.85safer3.18–7.891.57–5.924.75–13.82actual5.006.0011.00
Total shots
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction15.6411.2026.84safe11.93–19.347.82–14.5819.76–33.92safer10.90–20.376.89–15.5117.80–35.88actual17.0026.0043.00
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.677.1717.85safe8.16–13.194.87–9.4713.03–22.66safer7.29–14.054.07–10.2711.37–24.32actual12.0015.0027.00
Blocked shots
53%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.053.317.36safe2.47–5.641.89–4.724.36–10.36safer1.93–6.171.41–5.213.34–11.38actual7.0013.0020.00
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.984.0910.07safe3.78–8.192.11–6.075.88–14.25safer3.18–8.781.57–6.604.75–15.38actual8.009.0017.00
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction54.7544.25safe48.43–61.0737.93–50.57safer46.83–62.6636.33–52.17actual44.0056.00
Passes
78%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction436345781safe371–502280–409651–911safer353–519263–427616–946actual272351623
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction83.7778.20safe79.55–87.9873.69–82.71safer78.25–89.2872.36–84.04actual64.0078.00
Fouls
28%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7114.1025.80safe8.85–14.5611.15–17.0420.00–31.61safer7.97–15.4510.23–17.9618.20–33.41actual12.0012.0024.00
Offsides
35%
27%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.302.52safe0.01–2.430.14–2.460.15–4.89safer0.00–2.780.00–2.790.00–5.57actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
27%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.702.424.12safe0.64–2.751.30–3.541.94–6.30safer0.37–3.031.01–3.831.38–6.86actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.82actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.423.295.72safe1.01–3.841.74–4.852.75–8.68safer0.62–4.231.31–5.281.93–9.51actual5.004.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.74–2.67 0.48–2.93 | 1.00 | 0.95 0.09–1.81 0.00–2.05 | 1.00 | 2.65 0.83–4.47 0.32–4.98 | 2.00 | 55% 24% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.54 3.68–7.39 3.18–7.89 | 5.00 | 3.75 2.04–5.46 1.57–5.92 | 6.00 | 9.29 5.72–12.85 4.75–13.82 | 11.00 | 66% 22% |
| Total shots | 15.64 11.93–19.34 10.90–20.37 | 17.00 | 11.20 7.82–14.58 6.89–15.51 | 26.00 | 26.84 19.76–33.92 17.80–35.88 | 43.00 | 78% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.67 8.16–13.19 7.29–14.05 | 12.00 | 7.17 4.87–9.47 4.07–10.27 | 15.00 | 17.85 13.03–22.66 11.37–24.32 | 27.00 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.05 2.47–5.64 1.93–6.17 | 7.00 | 3.31 1.89–4.72 1.41–5.21 | 13.00 | 7.36 4.36–10.36 3.34–11.38 | 20.00 | 53% 14% 32% |
| Corners | 5.98 3.78–8.19 3.18–8.78 | 8.00 | 4.09 2.11–6.07 1.57–6.60 | 9.00 | 10.07 5.88–14.25 4.75–15.38 | 17.00 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 54.75 48.43–61.07 46.83–62.66 | 44.00 | 44.25 37.93–50.57 36.33–52.17 | 56.00 | — | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 436 371–502 353–519 | 272 | 345 280–409 263–427 | 351 | 781 651–911 616–946 | 623 | 78% 22% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.77 79.55–87.98 78.25–89.28 | 64.00 | 78.20 73.69–82.71 72.36–84.04 | 78.00 | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 11.71 8.85–14.56 7.97–15.45 | 12.00 | 14.10 11.15–17.04 10.23–17.96 | 12.00 | 25.80 20.00–31.61 18.20–33.41 | 24.00 | 28% 64% |
| Offsides | 1.22 0.01–2.43 0.00–2.78 | 2.00 | 1.30 0.14–2.46 0.00–2.79 | 3.00 | 2.52 0.15–4.89 0.00–5.57 | 5.00 | 35% 27% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.64–2.75 0.37–3.03 | 3.00 | 2.42 1.30–3.54 1.01–3.83 | 2.00 | 4.12 1.94–6.30 1.38–6.86 | 5.00 | 27% 19% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.39 | 1.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 1.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.42 1.01–3.84 0.62–4.23 | 5.00 | 3.29 1.74–4.85 1.31–5.28 | 4.00 | 5.72 2.75–8.68 1.93–9.51 | 9.00 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.