Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Luca Pairetto · Italy
Goals
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.300.803.09safe1.34–3.260.00–1.661.27–4.92safer1.08–3.520.00–1.900.76–5.42actual5.003.008.00
Shots on target
85%
homeawaytotalprediction6.813.099.91safe4.96–8.671.39–4.806.34–13.47safer4.46–9.170.92–5.275.38–14.44actual12.005.0017.00
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction18.798.4027.20safe15.09–22.505.02–11.7820.11–34.28safer14.06–23.534.09–12.7118.15–36.24actual27.006.0033.00
Shots in box
96%
homeawaytotalprediction13.865.6719.53safe11.34–16.383.37–7.9714.71–24.35safer10.48–17.242.57–8.7713.05–26.01actual17.005.0022.00
Blocked shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction5.292.137.42safe3.71–6.870.72–3.554.42–10.42safer3.17–7.410.23–4.033.40–11.44actual11.001.0012.00
Corners
86%
homeawaytotalprediction7.123.2210.34safe4.92–9.331.24–5.206.16–14.53safer4.32–9.930.70–5.745.03–15.66actual10.001.0011.00
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction65.1034.28safe58.79–71.4227.96–40.59safer57.19–73.0226.36–42.19actual66.0034.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction657328985safe591–722264–393855–1115safer574–740246–410820–1150actual640330970
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction89.2679.59safe85.05–93.4875.08–84.10safer83.75–94.7873.75–85.43actual93.0082.00
Fouls
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction9.1810.6219.79safe6.32–12.047.67–13.5613.99–25.60safer5.44–12.926.75–14.4812.19–27.40actual9.009.0018.00
Offsides
30%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.722.233.95safe0.51–2.931.07–3.391.57–6.32safer0.16–3.270.73–3.720.90–6.99actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
21%
22%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.051.892.94safe0.00–2.100.77–3.010.76–5.11safer0.00–2.370.48–3.300.20–5.68actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.070.10safe0.00–0.190.00–0.260.00–0.45safer0.00–0.340.00–0.400.00–0.74actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
14%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction2.274.516.78safe0.86–3.682.96–6.073.82–9.75safer0.47–4.072.53–6.503.00–10.57actual2.007.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.30 1.34–3.26 1.08–3.52 | 5.00 | 0.80 0.00–1.66 0.00–1.90 | 3.00 | 3.09 1.27–4.92 0.76–5.42 | 8.00 | 71% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.81 4.96–8.67 4.46–9.17 | 12.00 | 3.09 1.39–4.80 0.92–5.27 | 5.00 | 9.91 6.34–13.47 5.38–14.44 | 17.00 | 85% |
| Total shots | 18.79 15.09–22.50 14.06–23.53 | 27.00 | 8.40 5.02–11.78 4.09–12.71 | 6.00 | 27.20 20.11–34.28 18.15–36.24 | 33.00 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 13.86 11.34–16.38 10.48–17.24 | 17.00 | 5.67 3.37–7.97 2.57–8.77 | 5.00 | 19.53 14.71–24.35 13.05–26.01 | 22.00 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 5.29 3.71–6.87 3.17–7.41 | 11.00 | 2.13 0.72–3.55 0.23–4.03 | 1.00 | 7.42 4.42–10.42 3.40–11.44 | 12.00 | 84% |
| Corners | 7.12 4.92–9.33 4.32–9.93 | 10.00 | 3.22 1.24–5.20 0.70–5.74 | 1.00 | 10.34 6.16–14.53 5.03–15.66 | 11.00 | 86% |
| Possession % | 65.10 58.79–71.42 57.19–73.02 | 66.00 | 34.28 27.96–40.59 26.36–42.19 | 34.00 | — | — | 97% |
| Passes | 657 591–722 574–740 | 640 | 328 264–393 246–410 | 330 | 985 855–1115 820–1150 | 970 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 89.26 85.05–93.48 83.75–94.78 | 93.00 | 79.59 75.08–84.10 73.75–85.43 | 82.00 | — | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 9.18 6.32–12.04 5.44–12.92 | 9.00 | 10.62 7.67–13.56 6.75–14.48 | 9.00 | 19.79 13.99–25.60 12.19–27.40 | 18.00 | 33% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.51–2.93 0.16–3.27 | 3.00 | 2.23 1.07–3.39 0.73–3.72 | 1.00 | 3.95 1.57–6.32 0.90–6.99 | 4.00 | 30% 20% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 1.05 0.00–2.10 0.00–2.37 | 1.00 | 1.89 0.77–3.01 0.48–3.30 | 1.00 | 2.94 0.76–5.11 0.20–5.68 | 2.00 | 21% 22% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.74 | 0.00 | 91% |
| GK saves | 2.27 0.86–3.68 0.47–4.07 | 2.00 | 4.51 2.96–6.07 2.53–6.50 | 7.00 | 6.78 3.82–9.75 3.00–10.57 | 9.00 | 14% 75% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+