Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Matteo Marcenaro · Italy
Goals
40%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.212.57safe0.40–2.330.35–2.070.75–4.40safer0.14–2.590.10–2.320.24–4.90actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.843.838.67safe2.99–6.702.12–5.545.11–12.24safer2.49–7.201.65–6.004.14–13.20actual6.007.0013.00
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1111.3325.44safe10.41–17.827.95–14.7118.36–32.52safer9.38–18.857.02–15.6416.40–34.48actual8.0016.0024.00
Shots in box
47%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction8.338.1316.46safe5.81–10.855.83–10.4311.64–21.28safer4.95–11.715.03–11.239.98–22.94actual7.0011.0018.00
Blocked shots
51%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.532.976.50safe1.94–5.111.56–4.393.50–9.50safer1.41–5.651.07–4.872.48–10.52actual0.004.004.00
Corners
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.144.019.16safe2.94–7.352.04–5.994.97–13.34safer2.34–7.941.50–6.533.84–14.47actual2.005.007.00
Possession %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction46.4552.81safe40.13–52.7746.49–59.13safer38.54–54.3744.90–60.73actual34.0066.00
Passes
22%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction421512933safe356–487447–577803–1063safer338–504430–594768–1098actual317625942
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction85.3886.78safe81.16–89.5982.27–91.29safer79.86–90.8980.94–92.62actual82.0091.00
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4212.3023.72safe8.57–14.289.35–15.2417.92–29.52safer7.68–15.178.43–16.1616.11–31.33actual15.0014.0029.00
Offsides
56%
19%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.471.634.10safe1.26–3.670.47–2.801.73–6.47safer0.91–4.020.14–3.131.05–7.15actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
30%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.892.434.32safe0.84–2.951.31–3.552.15–6.50safer0.56–3.221.02–3.841.59–7.06actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.130.22safe0.00–0.240.00–0.330.00–0.56safer0.00–0.390.00–0.470.00–0.86actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.713.065.77safe1.29–4.121.51–4.612.80–8.74safer0.90–4.511.07–5.051.98–9.56actual5.004.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.40–2.33 0.14–2.59 | 2.00 | 1.21 0.35–2.07 0.10–2.32 | 2.00 | 2.57 0.75–4.40 0.24–4.90 | 4.00 | 40% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.84 2.99–6.70 2.49–7.20 | 6.00 | 3.83 2.12–5.54 1.65–6.00 | 7.00 | 8.67 5.11–12.24 4.14–13.20 | 13.00 | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.11 10.41–17.82 9.38–18.85 | 8.00 | 11.33 7.95–14.71 7.02–15.64 | 16.00 | 25.44 18.36–32.52 16.40–34.48 | 24.00 | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 8.33 5.81–10.85 4.95–11.71 | 7.00 | 8.13 5.83–10.43 5.03–11.23 | 11.00 | 16.46 11.64–21.28 9.98–22.94 | 18.00 | 47% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.53 1.94–5.11 1.41–5.65 | 0.00 | 2.97 1.56–4.39 1.07–4.87 | 4.00 | 6.50 3.50–9.50 2.48–10.52 | 4.00 | 51% 16% 34% |
| Corners | 5.14 2.94–7.35 2.34–7.94 | 2.00 | 4.01 2.04–5.99 1.50–6.53 | 5.00 | 9.16 4.97–13.34 3.84–14.47 | 7.00 | 58% 29% |
| Possession % | 46.45 40.13–52.77 38.54–54.37 | 34.00 | 52.81 46.49–59.13 44.90–60.73 | 66.00 | — | — | 32% 63% |
| Passes | 421 356–487 338–504 | 317 | 512 447–577 430–594 | 625 | 933 803–1063 768–1098 | 942 | 22% 78% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.38 81.16–89.59 79.86–90.89 | 82.00 | 86.78 82.27–91.29 80.94–92.62 | 91.00 | — | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 11.42 8.57–14.28 7.68–15.17 | 15.00 | 12.30 9.35–15.24 8.43–16.16 | 14.00 | 23.72 17.92–29.52 16.11–31.33 | 29.00 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.47 1.26–3.67 0.91–4.02 | 2.00 | 1.63 0.47–2.80 0.14–3.13 | 1.00 | 4.10 1.73–6.47 1.05–7.15 | 3.00 | 56% 19% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 0.84–2.95 0.56–3.22 | 2.00 | 2.43 1.31–3.55 1.02–3.84 | 3.00 | 4.32 2.15–6.50 1.59–7.06 | 5.00 | 30% 19% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.00 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.86 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.29–4.12 0.90–4.51 | 5.00 | 3.06 1.51–4.61 1.07–5.05 | 4.00 | 5.77 2.80–8.74 1.98–9.56 | 9.00 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.