Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Valerio Crezzini · Italy
Goals
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.292.66safe0.41–2.330.43–2.150.84–4.49safer0.15–2.590.19–2.400.33–4.99actual3.002.005.00
Shots on target
42%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.903.997.89safe2.05–5.762.28–5.694.33–11.46safer1.55–6.261.81–6.163.36–12.42actual3.0011.0014.00
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8112.3025.11safe9.11–16.518.93–15.6818.03–32.20safer8.08–17.547.99–16.6116.07–34.16actual7.0019.0026.00
Shots in box
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction8.669.1717.83safe6.15–11.186.87–11.4713.02–22.65safer5.28–12.046.07–12.2711.35–24.31actual6.0014.0020.00
Blocked shots
46%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.222.966.18safe1.64–4.811.54–4.373.18–9.18safer1.10–5.341.06–4.862.16–10.20actual1.003.004.00
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.384.499.87safe3.18–7.592.51–6.465.68–14.05safer2.58–8.181.97–7.004.55–15.18actual4.006.0010.00
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.3048.41safe44.98–57.6242.09–54.72safer43.39–59.2140.49–56.32actual39.0061.00
Passes
49%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction387388775safe322–453324–453645–905safer304–470306–470610–941actual322493815
Pass accuracy %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction78.7979.76safe74.57–83.0075.26–84.27safer73.27–84.3073.93–85.60actual73.0082.00
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2913.8928.18safe11.43–17.1510.95–16.8422.38–33.98safer10.55–18.0310.03–17.7620.58–35.79actual14.0013.0027.00
Offsides
15%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction1.092.853.94safe0.00–2.301.69–4.011.57–6.31safer0.00–2.641.36–4.350.89–6.99actual0.004.004.00
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.973.86safe0.84–2.950.85–3.091.69–6.04safer0.57–3.220.56–3.381.12–6.60actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
42%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.712.655.36safe1.30–4.131.09–4.202.39–8.33safer0.91–4.520.66–4.631.57–9.15actual8.000.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.41–2.33 0.15–2.59 | 3.00 | 1.29 0.43–2.15 0.19–2.40 | 2.00 | 2.66 0.84–4.49 0.33–4.99 | 5.00 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 3.90 2.05–5.76 1.55–6.26 | 3.00 | 3.99 2.28–5.69 1.81–6.16 | 11.00 | 7.89 4.33–11.46 3.36–12.42 | 14.00 | 42% 14% 44% |
| Total shots | 12.81 9.11–16.51 8.08–17.54 | 7.00 | 12.30 8.93–15.68 7.99–16.61 | 19.00 | 25.11 18.03–32.20 16.07–34.16 | 26.00 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.66 6.15–11.18 5.28–12.04 | 6.00 | 9.17 6.87–11.47 6.07–12.27 | 14.00 | 17.83 13.02–22.65 11.35–24.31 | 20.00 | 41% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.22 1.64–4.81 1.10–5.34 | 1.00 | 2.96 1.54–4.37 1.06–4.86 | 3.00 | 6.18 3.18–9.18 2.16–10.20 | 4.00 | 46% 16% 38% |
| Corners | 5.38 3.18–7.59 2.58–8.18 | 4.00 | 4.49 2.51–6.46 1.97–7.00 | 6.00 | 9.87 5.68–14.05 4.55–15.18 | 10.00 | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 51.30 44.98–57.62 43.39–59.21 | 39.00 | 48.41 42.09–54.72 40.49–56.32 | 61.00 | — | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 387 322–453 304–470 | 322 | 388 324–453 306–470 | 493 | 775 645–905 610–941 | 815 | 49% 50% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.79 74.57–83.00 73.27–84.30 | 73.00 | 79.76 75.26–84.27 73.93–85.60 | 82.00 | — | — | 43% 52% |
| Fouls | 14.29 11.43–17.15 10.55–18.03 | 14.00 | 13.89 10.95–16.84 10.03–17.76 | 13.00 | 28.18 22.38–33.98 20.58–35.79 | 27.00 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.09 0.00–2.30 0.00–2.64 | 0.00 | 2.85 1.69–4.01 1.36–4.35 | 4.00 | 3.94 1.57–6.31 0.89–6.99 | 4.00 | 15% 74% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.84–2.95 0.57–3.22 | 2.00 | 1.97 0.85–3.09 0.56–3.38 | 0.00 | 3.86 1.69–6.04 1.12–6.60 | 2.00 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.30–4.13 0.91–4.52 | 8.00 | 2.65 1.09–4.20 0.66–4.63 | 0.00 | 5.36 2.39–8.33 1.57–9.15 | 8.00 | 42% 18% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.