Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Kevin Bonacina · Italy
Goals
36%
25%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.412.76safe0.39–2.320.55–2.270.94–4.58safer0.13–2.580.30–2.510.43–5.09actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
43%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.424.458.87safe2.57–6.282.74–6.155.30–12.43safer2.07–6.782.27–6.624.34–13.40actual3.002.005.00
Total shots
39%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7513.7226.47safe9.05–16.4610.34–17.0919.39–33.55safer8.02–17.499.41–18.0317.42–35.51actual15.005.0020.00
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction8.538.5917.12safe6.01–11.046.29–10.9012.30–21.94safer5.15–11.915.50–11.6910.64–23.60actual12.002.0014.00
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.923.387.29safe2.33–5.501.96–4.794.30–10.29safer1.80–6.041.48–5.283.28–11.31actual5.000.005.00
Corners
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.094.9810.08safe2.89–7.303.00–6.965.89–14.26safer2.29–7.892.47–7.504.76–15.39actual10.000.0010.00
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction50.5249.59safe44.20–56.8443.27–55.90safer42.61–58.4441.67–57.50actual58.0042.00
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction467456923safe402–533391–520793–1053safer384–550373–538758–1088actual549414963
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction79.7684.60safe75.55–83.9880.09–89.11safer74.25–85.2878.76–90.44actual90.0087.00
Fouls
42%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5411.9623.50safe8.68–14.409.01–14.9017.69–29.30safer7.80–15.288.09–15.8215.89–31.10actual15.0010.0025.00
Offsides
56%
22%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.092.98safe0.68–3.100.00–2.250.61–5.35safer0.34–3.450.00–2.580.00–6.03actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
30%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.193.89safe0.64–2.751.07–3.311.71–6.06safer0.36–3.020.78–3.601.15–6.63actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.060.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.872.865.73safe1.46–4.291.30–4.412.76–8.70safer1.07–4.680.87–4.841.94–9.52actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.39–2.32 0.13–2.58 | 1.00 | 1.41 0.55–2.27 0.30–2.51 | 0.00 | 2.76 0.94–4.58 0.43–5.09 | 1.00 | 36% 25% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.42 2.57–6.28 2.07–6.78 | 3.00 | 4.45 2.74–6.15 2.27–6.62 | 2.00 | 8.87 5.30–12.43 4.34–13.40 | 5.00 | 43% 14% 44% |
| Total shots | 12.75 9.05–16.46 8.02–17.49 | 15.00 | 13.72 10.34–17.09 9.41–18.03 | 5.00 | 26.47 19.39–33.55 17.42–35.51 | 20.00 | 39% 54% |
| Shots in box | 8.53 6.01–11.04 5.15–11.91 | 12.00 | 8.59 6.29–10.90 5.50–11.69 | 2.00 | 17.12 12.30–21.94 10.64–23.60 | 14.00 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.92 2.33–5.50 1.80–6.04 | 5.00 | 3.38 1.96–4.79 1.48–5.28 | 0.00 | 7.29 4.30–10.29 3.28–11.31 | 5.00 | 50% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.09 2.89–7.30 2.29–7.89 | 10.00 | 4.98 3.00–6.96 2.47–7.50 | 0.00 | 10.08 5.89–14.26 4.76–15.39 | 10.00 | 45% 42% |
| Possession % | 50.52 44.20–56.84 42.61–58.44 | 58.00 | 49.59 43.27–55.90 41.67–57.50 | 42.00 | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 467 402–533 384–550 | 549 | 456 391–520 373–538 | 414 | 923 793–1053 758–1088 | 963 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.76 75.55–83.98 74.25–85.28 | 90.00 | 84.60 80.09–89.11 78.76–90.44 | 87.00 | — | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 11.54 8.68–14.40 7.80–15.28 | 15.00 | 11.96 9.01–14.90 8.09–15.82 | 10.00 | 23.50 17.69–29.30 15.89–31.10 | 25.00 | 42% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.89 0.68–3.10 0.34–3.45 | 2.00 | 1.09 0.00–2.25 0.00–2.58 | 3.00 | 2.98 0.61–5.35 0.00–6.03 | 5.00 | 56% 22% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.75 0.36–3.02 | 0.00 | 2.19 1.07–3.31 0.78–3.60 | 1.00 | 3.89 1.71–6.06 1.15–6.63 | 1.00 | 30% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.46–4.29 1.07–4.68 | 2.00 | 2.86 1.30–4.41 0.87–4.84 | 3.00 | 5.73 2.76–8.70 1.94–9.52 | 5.00 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+