Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Juan Luca Sacchi · Italy
Goals
21%
24%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction0.961.712.67safe0.00–1.920.85–2.570.85–4.49safer0.00–2.180.60–2.820.34–5.00actual3.002.005.00
Shots on target
20%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.485.529.00safe1.63–5.343.81–7.225.44–12.56safer1.13–5.843.34–7.694.47–13.53actual6.008.0014.00
Total shots
14%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0316.1527.18safe7.32–14.7312.77–19.5320.10–34.26safer6.29–15.7611.84–20.4618.13–36.22actual10.0018.0028.00
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.4010.7517.15safe3.88–8.928.45–13.0512.34–21.97safer3.02–9.787.66–13.8510.68–23.63actual6.0011.0017.00
Blocked shots
23%
13%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.984.447.42safe1.40–4.573.03–5.864.43–10.42safer0.86–5.102.54–6.343.41–11.44actual1.006.007.00
Corners
24%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.965.629.57safe1.75–6.163.64–7.605.39–13.76safer1.16–6.763.10–8.134.26–14.89actual3.009.0012.00
Possession %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction44.5654.78safe38.24–50.8748.46–61.10safer36.64–52.4746.87–62.70actual45.0055.00
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction424482906safe359–489417–547776–1036safer341–507400–564741–1071actual393478871
Pass accuracy %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction83.6385.24safe79.42–87.8580.73–89.75safer78.11–89.1579.40–91.08actual87.0087.00
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8313.7225.55safe8.97–14.6910.78–16.6719.75–31.35safer8.09–15.579.86–17.5817.95–33.16actual7.0013.0020.00
Offsides
55%
22%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.163.06safe0.69–3.110.00–2.330.69–5.43safer0.34–3.450.00–2.660.01–6.11actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
36%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.982.194.17safe0.93–3.041.07–3.311.99–6.35safer0.66–3.310.78–3.601.43–6.91actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.622.756.37safe2.21–5.041.20–4.303.40–9.34safer1.82–5.430.76–4.742.58–10.16actual6.003.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.96 0.00–1.92 0.00–2.18 | 3.00 | 1.71 0.85–2.57 0.60–2.82 | 2.00 | 2.67 0.85–4.49 0.34–5.00 | 5.00 | 21% 24% 55% |
| Shots on target | 3.48 1.63–5.34 1.13–5.84 | 6.00 | 5.52 3.81–7.22 3.34–7.69 | 8.00 | 9.00 5.44–12.56 4.47–13.53 | 14.00 | 20% 69% |
| Total shots | 11.03 7.32–14.73 6.29–15.76 | 10.00 | 16.15 12.77–19.53 11.84–20.46 | 18.00 | 27.18 20.10–34.26 18.13–36.22 | 28.00 | 14% 81% |
| Shots in box | 6.40 3.88–8.92 3.02–9.78 | 6.00 | 10.75 8.45–13.05 7.66–13.85 | 11.00 | 17.15 12.34–21.97 10.68–23.63 | 17.00 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 2.98 1.40–4.57 0.86–5.10 | 1.00 | 4.44 3.03–5.86 2.54–6.34 | 6.00 | 7.42 4.43–10.42 3.41–11.44 | 7.00 | 23% 13% 64% |
| Corners | 3.96 1.75–6.16 1.16–6.76 | 3.00 | 5.62 3.64–7.60 3.10–8.13 | 9.00 | 9.57 5.39–13.76 4.26–14.89 | 12.00 | 24% 65% |
| Possession % | 44.56 38.24–50.87 36.64–52.47 | 45.00 | 54.78 48.46–61.10 46.87–62.70 | 55.00 | — | — | 24% 72% |
| Passes | 424 359–489 341–507 | 393 | 482 417–547 400–564 | 478 | 906 776–1036 741–1071 | 871 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.63 79.42–87.85 78.11–89.15 | 87.00 | 85.24 80.73–89.75 79.40–91.08 | 87.00 | — | — | 40% 55% |
| Fouls | 11.83 8.97–14.69 8.09–15.57 | 7.00 | 13.72 10.78–16.67 9.86–17.58 | 13.00 | 25.55 19.75–31.35 17.95–33.16 | 20.00 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.69–3.11 0.34–3.45 | 2.00 | 1.16 0.00–2.33 0.00–2.66 | 2.00 | 3.06 0.69–5.43 0.01–6.11 | 4.00 | 55% 22% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 0.93–3.04 0.66–3.31 | 2.00 | 2.19 1.07–3.31 0.78–3.60 | 2.00 | 4.17 1.99–6.35 1.43–6.91 | 4.00 | 36% 20% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.62 2.21–5.04 1.82–5.43 | 6.00 | 2.75 1.20–4.30 0.76–4.74 | 3.00 | 6.37 3.40–9.34 2.58–10.16 | 9.00 | 56% 15% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.