Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Fabio Maresca · Italy
Goals
13%
19%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction0.852.203.05safe0.00–1.811.34–3.061.23–4.87safer0.00–2.071.10–3.310.72–5.38actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
83%
homeawaytotalprediction3.066.419.47safe1.20–4.924.70–8.125.91–13.03safer0.71–5.424.23–8.584.94–14.00actual3.005.008.00
Total shots
95%
homeawaytotalprediction8.8517.4626.31safe5.14–12.5514.08–20.8419.22–33.39safer4.11–13.5813.15–21.7717.26–35.35actual7.0014.0021.00
Shots in box
93%
homeawaytotalprediction4.8711.0915.96safe2.35–7.398.79–13.3911.15–20.78safer1.49–8.258.00–14.199.49–22.44actual3.0012.0015.00
Blocked shots
16%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction2.364.436.78safe0.77–3.943.01–5.843.78–9.78safer0.24–4.472.52–6.332.76–10.80actual1.001.002.00
Corners
18%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction3.305.498.79safe1.09–5.503.51–7.474.60–12.97safer0.50–6.102.97–8.003.47–14.10actual1.008.009.00
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction43.2556.37safe36.93–49.5650.05–62.69safer35.33–51.1648.45–64.28actual53.0047.00
Passes
14%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction426549975safe360–491484–614845–1105safer343–508467–631809–1140actual507437944
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction79.4283.91safe75.20–83.6479.40–88.41safer73.90–84.9478.07–89.74actual82.0082.00
Fouls
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1113.6424.74safe8.25–13.9610.69–16.5818.94–30.54safer7.36–14.859.77–17.5017.14–32.35actual7.0020.0027.00
Offsides
25%
19%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.612.414.02safe0.40–2.821.25–3.581.65–6.39safer0.06–3.160.92–3.910.97–7.07actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
44%
20%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.222.034.25safe1.16–3.270.91–3.152.07–6.43safer0.89–3.550.62–3.441.51–6.99actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.18safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
65%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.742.276.00safe2.32–5.150.71–3.823.04–8.97safer1.93–5.540.28–4.252.22–9.79actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.85 0.00–1.81 0.00–2.07 | 0.00 | 2.20 1.34–3.06 1.10–3.31 | 2.00 | 3.05 1.23–4.87 0.72–5.38 | 2.00 | 13% 19% 68% |
| Shots on target | 3.06 1.20–4.92 0.71–5.42 | 3.00 | 6.41 4.70–8.12 4.23–8.58 | 5.00 | 9.47 5.91–13.03 4.94–14.00 | 8.00 | 83% |
| Total shots | 8.85 5.14–12.55 4.11–13.58 | 7.00 | 17.46 14.08–20.84 13.15–21.77 | 14.00 | 26.31 19.22–33.39 17.26–35.35 | 21.00 | 95% |
| Shots in box | 4.87 2.35–7.39 1.49–8.25 | 3.00 | 11.09 8.79–13.39 8.00–14.19 | 12.00 | 15.96 11.15–20.78 9.49–22.44 | 15.00 | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 2.36 0.77–3.94 0.24–4.47 | 1.00 | 4.43 3.01–5.84 2.52–6.33 | 1.00 | 6.78 3.78–9.78 2.76–10.80 | 2.00 | 16% 73% |
| Corners | 3.30 1.09–5.50 0.50–6.10 | 1.00 | 5.49 3.51–7.47 2.97–8.00 | 8.00 | 8.79 4.60–12.97 3.47–14.10 | 9.00 | 18% 72% |
| Possession % | 43.25 36.93–49.56 35.33–51.16 | 53.00 | 56.37 50.05–62.69 48.45–64.28 | 47.00 | — | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 426 360–491 343–508 | 507 | 549 484–614 467–631 | 437 | 975 845–1105 809–1140 | 944 | 14% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.42 75.20–83.64 73.90–84.94 | 82.00 | 83.91 79.40–88.41 78.07–89.74 | 82.00 | — | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 11.11 8.25–13.96 7.36–14.85 | 7.00 | 13.64 10.69–16.58 9.77–17.50 | 20.00 | 24.74 18.94–30.54 17.14–32.35 | 27.00 | 27% 66% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.40–2.82 0.06–3.16 | 0.00 | 2.41 1.25–3.58 0.92–3.91 | 2.00 | 4.02 1.65–6.39 0.97–7.07 | 2.00 | 25% 19% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 2.22 1.16–3.27 0.89–3.55 | 0.00 | 2.03 0.91–3.15 0.62–3.44 | 2.00 | 4.25 2.07–6.43 1.51–6.99 | 2.00 | 44% 20% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.74 2.32–5.15 1.93–5.54 | 3.00 | 2.27 0.71–3.82 0.28–4.25 | 3.00 | 6.00 3.04–8.97 2.22–9.79 | 6.00 | 65% 14% 21% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+