Serie A·Regular Season - 4·
Serie A·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Francesco Fourneau · Italy
Goals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.222.60safe0.42–2.350.36–2.080.78–4.43safer0.16–2.610.11–2.320.27–4.93actual2.004.006.00
Shots on target
48%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.854.489.34safe3.00–6.712.78–6.195.77–12.90safer2.50–7.212.31–6.664.81–13.87actual3.0010.0013.00
Total shots
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3812.1326.51safe10.68–18.088.75–15.5119.43–33.60safer9.65–19.127.82–16.4417.47–35.56actual10.0019.0029.00
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.288.1816.45safe5.76–10.795.88–10.4811.64–21.27safer4.90–11.665.08–11.289.98–22.93actual8.0015.0023.00
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.873.076.94safe2.29–5.451.65–4.483.94–9.93safer1.75–5.991.17–4.972.92–10.96actual1.003.004.00
Corners
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.374.7010.07safe3.16–7.582.72–6.675.88–14.25safer2.57–8.172.18–7.214.75–15.38actual2.004.006.00
Possession %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction54.5645.73safe48.24–60.8839.41–52.04safer46.65–62.4837.81–53.64actual63.0037.00
Passes
73%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction435363799safe370–501299–428669–929safer352–518281–445634–964actual560343903
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction83.2382.39safe79.01–87.4477.88–86.89safer77.71–88.7476.55–88.22actual89.0080.00
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3914.5926.98safe9.53–15.2511.65–17.5421.18–32.78safer8.65–16.1310.73–18.4519.38–34.59actual11.006.0017.00
Offsides
23%
20%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.382.253.64safe0.18–2.591.09–3.421.27–6.01safer0.00–2.940.76–3.750.59–6.69actual3.002.005.00
Yellow cards
33%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.494.56safe1.02–3.131.37–3.612.39–6.74safer0.75–3.401.08–3.901.82–7.30actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.120.22safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.57safer0.00–0.410.00–0.460.00–0.86actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
37%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.903.186.09safe1.49–4.321.63–4.743.12–9.05safer1.10–4.711.20–5.172.30–9.87actual6.001.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.42–2.35 0.16–2.61 | 2.00 | 1.22 0.36–2.08 0.11–2.32 | 4.00 | 2.60 0.78–4.43 0.27–4.93 | 6.00 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.85 3.00–6.71 2.50–7.21 | 3.00 | 4.48 2.78–6.19 2.31–6.66 | 10.00 | 9.34 5.77–12.90 4.81–13.87 | 13.00 | 48% 13% 39% |
| Total shots | 14.38 10.68–18.08 9.65–19.12 | 10.00 | 12.13 8.75–15.51 7.82–16.44 | 19.00 | 26.51 19.43–33.60 17.47–35.56 | 29.00 | 63% 30% |
| Shots in box | 8.28 5.76–10.79 4.90–11.66 | 8.00 | 8.18 5.88–10.48 5.08–11.28 | 15.00 | 16.45 11.64–21.27 9.98–22.93 | 23.00 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.87 2.29–5.45 1.75–5.99 | 1.00 | 3.07 1.65–4.48 1.17–4.97 | 3.00 | 6.94 3.94–9.93 2.92–10.96 | 4.00 | 54% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 5.37 3.16–7.58 2.57–8.17 | 2.00 | 4.70 2.72–6.67 2.18–7.21 | 4.00 | 10.07 5.88–14.25 4.75–15.38 | 6.00 | 52% 35% |
| Possession % | 54.56 48.24–60.88 46.65–62.48 | 63.00 | 45.73 39.41–52.04 37.81–53.64 | 37.00 | — | — | 69% 27% |
| Passes | 435 370–501 352–518 | 560 | 363 299–428 281–445 | 343 | 799 669–929 634–964 | 903 | 73% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.23 79.01–87.44 77.71–88.74 | 89.00 | 82.39 77.88–86.89 76.55–88.22 | 80.00 | — | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 12.39 9.53–15.25 8.65–16.13 | 11.00 | 14.59 11.65–17.54 10.73–18.45 | 6.00 | 26.98 21.18–32.78 19.38–34.59 | 17.00 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.38 0.18–2.59 0.00–2.94 | 3.00 | 2.25 1.09–3.42 0.76–3.75 | 2.00 | 3.64 1.27–6.01 0.59–6.69 | 5.00 | 23% 20% 57% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.02–3.13 0.75–3.40 | 2.00 | 2.49 1.37–3.61 1.08–3.90 | 1.00 | 4.56 2.39–6.74 1.82–7.30 | 3.00 | 33% 19% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.49–4.32 1.10–4.71 | 6.00 | 3.18 1.63–4.74 1.20–5.17 | 1.00 | 6.09 3.12–9.05 2.30–9.87 | 7.00 | 37% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+