Serie A·Regular Season - 27·
Serie A·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
24%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.002.73safe0.76–2.700.15–1.860.91–4.55safer0.51–2.950.00–2.080.43–5.03
Shots on target
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.223.348.56safe3.36–7.081.60–5.084.95–12.16safer2.87–7.571.13–5.554.00–13.12
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction15.349.5524.89safe11.41–19.265.99–13.1217.40–32.38safer10.32–20.355.03–14.0715.35–34.43
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction10.435.9016.33safe7.49–13.383.22–8.5810.71–21.96safer6.66–14.212.48–9.329.14–23.52
Blocked shots
66%
13%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.052.486.53safe2.17–5.930.83–4.133.00–10.07safer1.62–6.480.33–4.631.96–11.10
Corners
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.533.529.05safe3.32–7.741.52–5.524.84–13.27safer2.74–8.320.99–6.063.73–14.37
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.2949.75safe43.50–57.0942.96–56.53safer41.83–58.7541.29–58.20
Passes
51%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction434431866safe367–502365–498732–999safer349–520347–515696–1035
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction78.3680.04safe74.33–82.3975.72–84.36safer73.04–83.6874.41–85.67
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1812.6924.87safe9.34–15.029.74–15.6319.09–30.65safer8.59–15.778.99–16.3817.58–32.15
Offsides
50%
22%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.443.42safe0.82–3.140.35–2.541.17–5.68safer0.52–3.440.06–2.820.58–6.27
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.502.093.60safe0.45–2.550.97–3.221.42–5.78safer0.19–2.820.67–3.510.86–6.33
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78
GK saves
20%
14%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.293.886.16safe0.85–3.722.32–5.433.17–9.16safer0.46–4.111.90–5.862.36–9.97
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.76–2.70 0.51–2.95 | 1.00 0.15–1.86 0.00–2.08 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.43–5.03 | 54% 24% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.22 3.36–7.08 2.87–7.57 | 3.34 1.60–5.08 1.13–5.55 | 8.56 4.95–12.16 4.00–13.12 | 68% 21% |
| Total shots | 15.34 11.41–19.26 10.32–20.35 | 9.55 5.99–13.12 5.03–14.07 | 24.89 17.40–32.38 15.35–34.43 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 10.43 7.49–13.38 6.66–14.21 | 5.90 3.22–8.58 2.48–9.32 | 16.33 10.71–21.96 9.14–23.52 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 4.05 2.17–5.93 1.62–6.48 | 2.48 0.83–4.13 0.33–4.63 | 6.53 3.00–10.07 1.96–11.10 | 66% 13% 21% |
| Corners | 5.53 3.32–7.74 2.74–8.32 | 3.52 1.52–5.52 0.99–6.06 | 9.05 4.84–13.27 3.73–14.37 | 69% 20% |
| Possession % | 50.29 43.50–57.09 41.83–58.75 | 49.75 42.96–56.53 41.29–58.20 | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 434 367–502 349–520 | 431 365–498 347–515 | 866 732–999 696–1035 | 51% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.36 74.33–82.39 73.04–83.68 | 80.04 75.72–84.36 74.41–85.67 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 12.18 9.34–15.02 8.59–15.77 | 12.69 9.74–15.63 8.99–16.38 | 24.87 19.09–30.65 17.58–32.15 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.82–3.14 0.52–3.44 | 1.44 0.35–2.54 0.06–2.82 | 3.42 1.17–5.68 0.58–6.27 | 50% 22% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.55 0.19–2.82 | 2.09 0.97–3.22 0.67–3.51 | 3.60 1.42–5.78 0.86–6.33 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.29 0.85–3.72 0.46–4.11 | 3.88 2.32–5.43 1.90–5.86 | 6.16 3.17–9.16 2.36–9.97 | 20% 14% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.