Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Federico La Penna · Italy
Goals
76%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.340.632.98safe1.38–3.310.00–1.491.16–4.80safer1.12–3.570.00–1.740.65–5.31actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
90%
homeawaytotalprediction6.902.539.43safe5.04–8.760.82–4.235.86–12.99safer4.54–9.250.35–4.704.90–13.96actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction17.917.7525.65safe14.20–21.614.37–11.1318.57–32.74safer13.17–22.643.44–12.0616.61–34.70actual10.006.0016.00
Shots in box
97%
homeawaytotalprediction12.874.5917.46safe10.35–15.382.29–6.8912.64–22.28safer9.49–16.251.49–7.6910.98–23.94actual8.004.0012.00
Blocked shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction4.711.806.52safe3.13–6.300.39–3.223.52–9.51safer2.59–6.830.00–3.712.50–10.54actual4.002.006.00
Corners
87%
homeawaytotalprediction6.752.849.59safe4.55–8.960.86–4.825.41–13.78safer3.95–9.560.32–5.354.28–14.91actual2.003.005.00
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction65.5735.49safe59.25–71.8929.17–41.80safer57.66–73.4827.57–43.40actual70.0030.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction633330963safe568–698265–394833–1092safer550–716248–412797–1128actual697294991
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction89.6580.30safe85.43–93.8675.80–84.81safer84.13–95.1774.47–86.14actual91.0082.00
Fouls
18%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction8.5512.1320.68safe5.70–11.419.18–15.0714.88–26.49safer4.81–12.308.27–15.9913.08–28.29actual7.0014.0021.00
Offsides
59%
17%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.052.035.08safe1.84–4.260.87–3.202.71–7.46safer1.50–4.610.54–3.532.04–8.13actual4.001.005.00
Yellow cards
23%
20%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.372.223.59safe0.31–2.421.10–3.351.41–5.77safer0.04–2.690.81–3.640.85–6.33actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.120.17safe0.00–0.200.00–0.310.00–0.51safer0.00–0.350.00–0.460.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
78%
homeawaytotalprediction1.824.236.05safe0.40–3.232.68–5.783.08–9.02safer0.02–3.622.24–6.222.26–9.84actual3.001.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.34 1.38–3.31 1.12–3.57 | 3.00 | 0.63 0.00–1.49 0.00–1.74 | 0.00 | 2.98 1.16–4.80 0.65–5.31 | 3.00 | 76% 16% |
| Shots on target | 6.90 5.04–8.76 4.54–9.25 | 4.00 | 2.53 0.82–4.23 0.35–4.70 | 3.00 | 9.43 5.86–12.99 4.90–13.96 | 7.00 | 90% |
| Total shots | 17.91 14.20–21.61 13.17–22.64 | 10.00 | 7.75 4.37–11.13 3.44–12.06 | 6.00 | 25.65 18.57–32.74 16.61–34.70 | 16.00 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 12.87 10.35–15.38 9.49–16.25 | 8.00 | 4.59 2.29–6.89 1.49–7.69 | 4.00 | 17.46 12.64–22.28 10.98–23.94 | 12.00 | 97% |
| Blocked shots | 4.71 3.13–6.30 2.59–6.83 | 4.00 | 1.80 0.39–3.22 0.00–3.71 | 2.00 | 6.52 3.52–9.51 2.50–10.54 | 6.00 | 83% |
| Corners | 6.75 4.55–8.96 3.95–9.56 | 2.00 | 2.84 0.86–4.82 0.32–5.35 | 3.00 | 9.59 5.41–13.78 4.28–14.91 | 5.00 | 87% |
| Possession % | 65.57 59.25–71.89 57.66–73.48 | 70.00 | 35.49 29.17–41.80 27.57–43.40 | 30.00 | — | — | 97% |
| Passes | 633 568–698 550–716 | 697 | 330 265–394 248–412 | 294 | 963 833–1092 797–1128 | 991 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 89.65 85.43–93.86 84.13–95.17 | 91.00 | 80.30 75.80–84.81 74.47–86.14 | 82.00 | — | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 8.55 5.70–11.41 4.81–12.30 | 7.00 | 12.13 9.18–15.07 8.27–15.99 | 14.00 | 20.68 14.88–26.49 13.08–28.29 | 21.00 | 18% 75% |
| Offsides | 3.05 1.84–4.26 1.50–4.61 | 4.00 | 2.03 0.87–3.20 0.54–3.53 | 1.00 | 5.08 2.71–7.46 2.04–8.13 | 5.00 | 59% 17% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.37 0.31–2.42 0.04–2.69 | 0.00 | 2.22 1.10–3.35 0.81–3.64 | 1.00 | 3.59 1.41–5.77 0.85–6.33 | 1.00 | 23% 20% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.82 0.40–3.23 0.02–3.62 | 3.00 | 4.23 2.68–5.78 2.24–6.22 | 1.00 | 6.05 3.08–9.02 2.26–9.84 | 4.00 | 78% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.