Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Davide Massa · Italy
Goals
35%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.583.02safe0.48–2.400.72–2.441.20–4.85safer0.22–2.660.48–2.690.70–5.35actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.094.119.20safe3.24–6.952.40–5.825.64–12.77safer2.74–7.451.93–6.284.67–13.73actual4.005.009.00
Total shots
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4011.0725.46safe10.69–18.107.69–14.4518.38–32.55safer9.66–19.136.76–15.3816.42–34.51actual18.0016.0034.00
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.967.4917.46safe7.45–12.485.19–9.8012.64–22.27safer6.58–13.344.40–10.5910.98–23.94actual12.0011.0023.00
Blocked shots
61%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.732.536.26safe2.14–5.311.12–3.953.26–9.26safer1.61–5.850.63–4.432.24–10.28actual7.003.0010.00
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.234.479.70safe3.02–7.442.49–6.455.51–13.88safer2.43–8.031.95–6.984.38–15.01actual4.002.006.00
Possession %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction43.1755.45safe36.85–49.4949.14–61.77safer35.26–51.0847.54–63.37actual49.0051.00
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction407530937safe342–472465–594807–1066safer324–490448–612771–1102actual459465924
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction79.8884.15safe75.67–84.1079.64–88.65safer74.37–85.4078.31–89.98actual84.0086.00
Fouls
45%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7011.7523.45safe8.84–14.568.80–14.6917.65–29.25safer7.96–15.447.89–15.6115.84–31.06actual12.007.0019.00
Offsides
78%
homeawaytotalprediction3.651.415.06safe2.44–4.860.24–2.572.68–7.43safer2.10–5.200.00–2.902.01–8.11actual3.003.006.00
Yellow cards
32%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.384.30safe0.87–2.981.26–3.502.13–6.48safer0.59–3.250.97–3.791.57–7.04actual3.003.006.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.440.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
33%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.723.245.96safe1.30–4.131.69–4.802.99–8.93safer0.92–4.521.26–5.232.17–9.75actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.48–2.40 0.22–2.66 | 2.00 | 1.58 0.72–2.44 0.48–2.69 | 2.00 | 3.02 1.20–4.85 0.70–5.35 | 4.00 | 35% 24% 41% |
| Shots on target | 5.09 3.24–6.95 2.74–7.45 | 4.00 | 4.11 2.40–5.82 1.93–6.28 | 5.00 | 9.20 5.64–12.77 4.67–13.73 | 9.00 | 56% 31% |
| Total shots | 14.40 10.69–18.10 9.66–19.13 | 18.00 | 11.07 7.69–14.45 6.76–15.38 | 16.00 | 25.46 18.38–32.55 16.42–34.51 | 34.00 | 71% 22% |
| Shots in box | 9.96 7.45–12.48 6.58–13.34 | 12.00 | 7.49 5.19–9.80 4.40–10.59 | 11.00 | 17.46 12.64–22.27 10.98–23.94 | 23.00 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.73 2.14–5.31 1.61–5.85 | 7.00 | 2.53 1.12–3.95 0.63–4.43 | 3.00 | 6.26 3.26–9.26 2.24–10.28 | 10.00 | 61% 15% 25% |
| Corners | 5.23 3.02–7.44 2.43–8.03 | 4.00 | 4.47 2.49–6.45 1.95–6.98 | 2.00 | 9.70 5.51–13.88 4.38–15.01 | 6.00 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 43.17 36.85–49.49 35.26–51.08 | 49.00 | 55.45 49.14–61.77 47.54–63.37 | 51.00 | — | — | 20% 76% |
| Passes | 407 342–472 324–490 | 459 | 530 465–594 448–612 | 465 | 937 807–1066 771–1102 | 924 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.88 75.67–84.10 74.37–85.40 | 84.00 | 84.15 79.64–88.65 78.31–89.98 | 86.00 | — | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 11.70 8.84–14.56 7.96–15.44 | 12.00 | 11.75 8.80–14.69 7.89–15.61 | 7.00 | 23.45 17.65–29.25 15.84–31.06 | 19.00 | 45% 46% |
| Offsides | 3.65 2.44–4.86 2.10–5.20 | 3.00 | 1.41 0.24–2.57 0.00–2.90 | 3.00 | 5.06 2.68–7.43 2.01–8.11 | 6.00 | 78% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.98 0.59–3.25 | 3.00 | 2.38 1.26–3.50 0.97–3.79 | 3.00 | 4.30 2.13–6.48 1.57–7.04 | 6.00 | 32% 19% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.30–4.13 0.92–4.52 | 3.00 | 3.24 1.69–4.80 1.26–5.23 | 2.00 | 5.96 2.99–8.93 2.17–9.75 | 5.00 | 33% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.