Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Marco Guida · Italy
Goals
62%
21%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.970.902.87safe1.01–2.930.04–1.761.05–4.69safer0.75–3.190.00–2.010.54–5.20actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction5.702.958.66safe3.85–7.561.25–4.665.09–12.22safer3.35–8.060.78–5.134.13–13.19actual1.003.004.00
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction16.599.1725.76safe12.88–20.295.79–12.5518.68–32.84safer11.85–21.324.86–13.4816.71–34.80actual11.0013.0024.00
Shots in box
91%
homeawaytotalprediction11.485.6317.10safe8.96–14.003.32–7.9312.29–21.92safer8.10–14.862.53–8.7210.63–23.58actual8.006.0014.00
Blocked shots
67%
13%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.122.516.63safe2.54–5.711.10–3.933.64–9.63safer2.00–6.240.61–4.412.62–10.65actual3.002.005.00
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.063.419.48safe3.86–8.271.43–5.395.29–13.66safer3.26–8.860.90–5.934.16–14.79actual1.006.007.00
Possession %
56%
40%
homeawayprediction51.8448.63safe45.52–58.1642.32–54.95safer43.93–59.7640.72–56.55actual40.0060.00
Passes
69%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction491433925safe426–557369–498795–1055safer408–574351–516760–1090actual320467787
Pass accuracy %
61%
35%
homeawayprediction86.8484.16safe82.62–91.0579.66–88.67safer81.32–92.3578.33–90.00actual74.0080.00
Fouls
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3212.0925.42safe10.47–16.189.15–15.0419.61–31.22safer9.58–17.078.23–15.9517.81–33.02actual18.0011.0029.00
Offsides
56%
22%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.941.133.07safe0.73–3.150.00–2.290.70–5.44safer0.38–3.490.00–2.630.02–6.12actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
28%
20%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.682.344.02safe0.62–2.741.22–3.461.84–6.19safer0.35–3.010.93–3.751.28–6.76actual0.003.003.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
23%
15%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.283.535.81safe0.87–3.701.98–5.092.84–8.78safer0.48–4.081.55–5.522.02–9.60actual2.000.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.97 1.01–2.93 0.75–3.19 | 1.00 | 0.90 0.04–1.76 0.00–2.01 | 1.00 | 2.87 1.05–4.69 0.54–5.20 | 2.00 | 62% 21% 17% |
| Shots on target | 5.70 3.85–7.56 3.35–8.06 | 1.00 | 2.95 1.25–4.66 0.78–5.13 | 3.00 | 8.66 5.09–12.22 4.13–13.19 | 4.00 | 78% 13% |
| Total shots | 16.59 12.88–20.29 11.85–21.32 | 11.00 | 9.17 5.79–12.55 4.86–13.48 | 13.00 | 25.76 18.68–32.84 16.71–34.80 | 24.00 | 92% |
| Shots in box | 11.48 8.96–14.00 8.10–14.86 | 8.00 | 5.63 3.32–7.93 2.53–8.72 | 6.00 | 17.10 12.29–21.92 10.63–23.58 | 14.00 | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 4.12 2.54–5.71 2.00–6.24 | 3.00 | 2.51 1.10–3.93 0.61–4.41 | 2.00 | 6.63 3.64–9.63 2.62–10.65 | 5.00 | 67% 13% 20% |
| Corners | 6.06 3.86–8.27 3.26–8.86 | 1.00 | 3.41 1.43–5.39 0.90–5.93 | 6.00 | 9.48 5.29–13.66 4.16–14.79 | 7.00 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 51.84 45.52–58.16 43.93–59.76 | 40.00 | 48.63 42.32–54.95 40.72–56.55 | 60.00 | — | — | 56% 40% |
| Passes | 491 426–557 408–574 | 320 | 433 369–498 351–516 | 467 | 925 795–1055 760–1090 | 787 | 69% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.84 82.62–91.05 81.32–92.35 | 74.00 | 84.16 79.66–88.67 78.33–90.00 | 80.00 | — | — | 61% 35% |
| Fouls | 13.32 10.47–16.18 9.58–17.07 | 18.00 | 12.09 9.15–15.04 8.23–15.95 | 11.00 | 25.42 19.61–31.22 17.81–33.02 | 29.00 | 56% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.94 0.73–3.15 0.38–3.49 | 2.00 | 1.13 0.00–2.29 0.00–2.63 | 0.00 | 3.07 0.70–5.44 0.02–6.12 | 2.00 | 56% 22% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.62–2.74 0.35–3.01 | 0.00 | 2.34 1.22–3.46 0.93–3.75 | 3.00 | 4.02 1.84–6.19 1.28–6.76 | 3.00 | 28% 20% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.28 0.87–3.70 0.48–4.08 | 2.00 | 3.53 1.98–5.09 1.55–5.52 | 0.00 | 5.81 2.84–8.78 2.02–9.60 | 2.00 | 23% 15% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.