Predicted match statistics
Goals
22%
23%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.041.762.80safe0.07–2.010.90–2.610.98–4.62safer0.00–2.260.68–2.840.50–5.10
Shots on target
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.635.098.72safe1.77–5.493.34–6.835.11–12.32safer1.28–5.982.88–7.304.16–13.28
Total shots
25%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5514.5526.09safe7.62–15.4710.99–18.1118.61–33.58safer6.53–16.5610.03–19.0716.56–35.63
Shots in box
16%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction6.269.7816.04safe3.32–9.207.10–12.4610.42–21.67safer2.49–10.036.36–13.208.85–23.23
Blocked shots
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.223.556.76safe1.33–5.101.90–5.203.23–10.30safer0.79–5.641.40–5.692.19–11.34
Corners
35%
13%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.184.859.03safe1.96–6.392.85–6.854.81–13.24safer1.39–6.972.32–7.383.71–14.35
Possession %
43%
53%
homeawayprediction49.0451.13safe42.25–55.8344.34–57.91safer40.58–57.5042.67–59.58
Passes
41%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction438464902safe370–505398–530768–1035safer352–523380–548732–1071
Pass accuracy %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction82.9185.18safe78.88–86.9480.85–89.50safer77.59–88.2379.54–90.81
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5714.5027.06safe9.73–15.4011.55–17.4421.28–32.85safer8.97–16.1610.81–18.1919.78–34.35
Offsides
22%
19%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.392.343.73safe0.23–2.551.24–3.431.48–5.98safer0.00–2.860.95–3.720.89–6.57
Yellow cards
36%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.892.103.99safe0.84–2.940.98–3.231.81–6.17safer0.57–3.200.68–3.521.26–6.73
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
50%
17%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.052.565.61safe1.62–4.491.01–4.122.62–8.61safer1.23–4.870.58–4.541.81–9.42
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.04 0.07–2.01 0.00–2.26 | 1.76 0.90–2.61 0.68–2.84 | 2.80 0.98–4.62 0.50–5.10 | 22% 23% 54% |
| Shots on target | 3.63 1.77–5.49 1.28–5.98 | 5.09 3.34–6.83 2.88–7.30 | 8.72 5.11–12.32 4.16–13.28 | 25% 63% |
| Total shots | 11.55 7.62–15.47 6.53–16.56 | 14.55 10.99–18.11 10.03–19.07 | 26.09 18.61–33.58 16.56–35.63 | 25% 69% |
| Shots in box | 6.26 3.32–9.20 2.49–10.03 | 9.78 7.10–12.46 6.36–13.20 | 16.04 10.42–21.67 8.85–23.23 | 16% 78% |
| Blocked shots | 3.22 1.33–5.10 0.79–5.64 | 3.55 1.90–5.20 1.40–5.69 | 6.76 3.23–10.30 2.19–11.34 | 37% 16% 47% |
| Corners | 4.18 1.96–6.39 1.39–6.97 | 4.85 2.85–6.85 2.32–7.38 | 9.03 4.81–13.24 3.71–14.35 | 35% 13% 52% |
| Possession % | 49.04 42.25–55.83 40.58–57.50 | 51.13 44.34–57.91 42.67–59.58 | — | 43% 53% |
| Passes | 438 370–505 352–523 | 464 398–530 380–548 | 902 768–1035 732–1071 | 41% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.91 78.88–86.94 77.59–88.23 | 85.18 80.85–89.50 79.54–90.81 | — | 36% 59% |
| Fouls | 12.57 9.73–15.40 8.97–16.16 | 14.50 11.55–17.44 10.81–18.19 | 27.06 21.28–32.85 19.78–34.35 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.39 0.23–2.55 0.00–2.86 | 2.34 1.24–3.43 0.95–3.72 | 3.73 1.48–5.98 0.89–6.57 | 22% 19% 58% |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 0.84–2.94 0.57–3.20 | 2.10 0.98–3.23 0.68–3.52 | 3.99 1.81–6.17 1.26–6.73 | 36% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.62–4.49 1.23–4.87 | 2.56 1.01–4.12 0.58–4.54 | 5.61 2.62–8.61 1.81–9.42 | 50% 17% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+