Serie A·Regular Season - 5·
Serie A·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Daniele Doveri · Italy
Goals
36%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.342.64safe0.34–2.270.48–2.200.82–4.46safer0.08–2.530.23–2.440.31–4.97actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.354.208.55safe2.50–6.212.49–5.914.99–12.12safer2.00–6.712.03–6.384.02–13.08actual4.004.008.00
Total shots
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7711.6925.46safe10.07–17.488.31–15.0718.38–32.54safer9.04–18.517.38–16.0016.42–34.50actual17.0012.0029.00
Shots in box
56%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction9.198.0417.23safe6.68–11.715.73–10.3412.41–22.04safer5.81–12.574.94–11.1310.75–23.71actual10.0010.0020.00
Blocked shots
60%
13%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.423.197.62safe2.84–6.011.78–4.614.62–10.62safer2.31–6.541.29–5.103.60–11.64actual3.001.004.00
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.054.479.52safe2.84–7.252.50–6.455.34–13.71safer2.25–7.851.96–6.994.21–14.84actual4.005.009.00
Possession %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction44.6355.82safe38.31–50.9449.50–62.14safer36.71–52.5447.90–63.74actual42.0058.00
Passes
18%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction383490873safe318–449425–554743–1003safer300–466407–572708–1038actual389544933
Pass accuracy %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction69.2972.85safe65.08–73.5168.35–77.36safer63.78–74.8167.01–78.69actual84.0089.00
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2512.4323.68safe8.40–14.119.48–15.3717.88–29.48safer7.51–15.008.56–16.2916.08–31.29actual11.009.0020.00
Offsides
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.913.35safe0.23–2.650.75–3.070.97–5.72safer0.00–2.990.41–3.400.30–6.39actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.993.90safe0.85–2.970.87–3.111.73–6.08safer0.58–3.240.58–3.401.17–6.64actual3.000.003.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.060.13safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.512.895.39safe1.09–3.921.33–4.442.42–8.36safer0.70–4.310.90–4.871.60–9.18actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.34–2.27 0.08–2.53 | 1.00 | 1.34 0.48–2.20 0.23–2.44 | 1.00 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.31–4.97 | 2.00 | 36% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.35 2.50–6.21 2.00–6.71 | 4.00 | 4.20 2.49–5.91 2.03–6.38 | 4.00 | 8.55 4.99–12.12 4.02–13.08 | 8.00 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 13.77 10.07–17.48 9.04–18.51 | 17.00 | 11.69 8.31–15.07 7.38–16.00 | 12.00 | 25.46 18.38–32.54 16.42–34.50 | 29.00 | 62% 30% |
| Shots in box | 9.19 6.68–11.71 5.81–12.57 | 10.00 | 8.04 5.73–10.34 4.94–11.13 | 10.00 | 17.23 12.41–22.04 10.75–23.71 | 20.00 | 56% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 4.42 2.84–6.01 2.31–6.54 | 3.00 | 3.19 1.78–4.61 1.29–5.10 | 1.00 | 7.62 4.62–10.62 3.60–11.64 | 4.00 | 60% 13% 26% |
| Corners | 5.05 2.84–7.25 2.25–7.85 | 4.00 | 4.47 2.50–6.45 1.96–6.99 | 5.00 | 9.52 5.34–13.71 4.21–14.84 | 9.00 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 44.63 38.31–50.94 36.71–52.54 | 42.00 | 55.82 49.50–62.14 47.90–63.74 | 58.00 | — | — | 22% 74% |
| Passes | 383 318–449 300–466 | 389 | 490 425–554 407–572 | 544 | 873 743–1003 708–1038 | 933 | 18% 82% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.29 65.08–73.51 63.78–74.81 | 84.00 | 72.85 68.35–77.36 67.01–78.69 | 89.00 | — | — | 31% 65% |
| Fouls | 11.25 8.40–14.11 7.51–15.00 | 11.00 | 12.43 9.48–15.37 8.56–16.29 | 9.00 | 23.68 17.88–29.48 16.08–31.29 | 20.00 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.23–2.65 0.00–2.99 | 0.00 | 1.91 0.75–3.07 0.41–3.40 | 1.00 | 3.35 0.97–5.72 0.30–6.39 | 1.00 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.85–2.97 0.58–3.24 | 3.00 | 1.99 0.87–3.11 0.58–3.40 | 0.00 | 3.90 1.73–6.08 1.17–6.64 | 3.00 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.51 1.09–3.92 0.70–4.31 | 3.00 | 2.89 1.33–4.44 0.90–4.87 | 3.00 | 5.39 2.42–8.36 1.60–9.18 | 6.00 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+