Coppa Italia·Round of 16·
Coppa Italia·Round of 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
25%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.492.73safe0.28–2.210.63–2.340.91–4.55safer0.03–2.460.40–2.570.43–5.03
Shots on target
46%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.534.298.82safe2.67–6.402.54–6.035.22–12.43safer2.18–6.892.08–6.504.26–13.38
Total shots
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction16.3211.7828.11safe12.40–20.258.22–15.3420.62–35.59safer11.31–21.347.26–16.3018.57–37.64
Shots in box
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction9.938.3818.32safe6.99–12.885.70–11.0612.69–23.94safer6.16–13.714.96–11.8011.13–25.51
Blocked shots
57%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.433.447.86safe2.55–6.311.78–5.094.33–11.40safer2.00–6.851.29–5.583.29–12.43
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.354.419.76safe3.14–7.562.41–6.415.54–13.97safer2.56–8.141.87–6.944.44–15.08
Possession %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction45.5854.24safe38.79–52.3747.45–61.02safer37.12–54.0445.78–62.70
Passes
19%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction400507907safe333–467440–573773–1040safer315–485423–591737–1076
Pass accuracy %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction73.1076.26safe69.07–77.1371.94–80.59safer67.78–78.4270.63–81.90
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8611.1722.03safe8.02–13.708.22–14.1116.25–27.81safer7.27–14.457.48–14.8614.74–29.32
Offsides
36%
25%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.452.84safe0.23–2.550.36–2.550.59–5.09safer0.00–2.850.07–2.840.00–5.68
Yellow cards
42%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.643.45safe0.76–2.860.51–2.771.27–5.63safer0.49–3.120.22–3.060.71–6.18
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.703.275.97safe1.26–4.141.71–4.832.98–8.96safer0.88–4.521.29–5.252.17–9.77
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.28–2.21 0.03–2.46 | 1.49 0.63–2.34 0.40–2.57 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.43–5.03 | 32% 25% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.53 2.67–6.40 2.18–6.89 | 4.29 2.54–6.03 2.08–6.50 | 8.82 5.22–12.43 4.26–13.38 | 46% 14% 40% |
| Total shots | 16.32 12.40–20.25 11.31–21.34 | 11.78 8.22–15.34 7.26–16.30 | 28.11 20.62–35.59 18.57–37.64 | 78% 17% |
| Shots in box | 9.93 6.99–12.88 6.16–13.71 | 8.38 5.70–11.06 4.96–11.80 | 18.32 12.69–23.94 11.13–25.51 | 60% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 4.43 2.55–6.31 2.00–6.85 | 3.44 1.78–5.09 1.29–5.58 | 7.86 4.33–11.40 3.29–12.43 | 57% 14% 30% |
| Corners | 5.35 3.14–7.56 2.56–8.14 | 4.41 2.41–6.41 1.87–6.94 | 9.76 5.54–13.97 4.44–15.08 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 45.58 38.79–52.37 37.12–54.04 | 54.24 47.45–61.02 45.78–62.70 | — | 28% 67% |
| Passes | 400 333–467 315–485 | 507 440–573 423–591 | 907 773–1040 737–1076 | 19% 81% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.10 69.07–77.13 67.78–78.42 | 76.26 71.94–80.59 70.63–81.90 | — | 32% 63% |
| Fouls | 10.86 8.02–13.70 7.27–14.45 | 11.17 8.22–14.11 7.48–14.86 | 22.03 16.25–27.81 14.74–29.32 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.39 0.23–2.55 0.00–2.85 | 1.45 0.36–2.55 0.07–2.84 | 2.84 0.59–5.09 0.00–5.68 | 36% 25% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.76–2.86 0.49–3.12 | 1.64 0.51–2.77 0.22–3.06 | 3.45 1.27–5.63 0.71–6.18 | 42% 22% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.70 1.26–4.14 0.88–4.52 | 3.27 1.71–4.83 1.29–5.25 | 5.97 2.98–8.96 2.17–9.77 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.