Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Daniele Chiffi · Italy
Goals
15%
18%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction1.082.433.52safe0.12–2.041.57–3.291.69–5.34safer0.00–2.301.33–3.541.19–5.84actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
16%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction4.106.8210.92safe2.24–5.955.11–8.537.35–14.48safer1.74–6.454.64–9.006.39–15.45actual6.008.0014.00
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4018.3930.79safe8.70–16.1115.01–21.7723.71–37.88safer7.67–17.1414.08–22.7021.75–39.84actual22.0026.0048.00
Shots in box
13%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction7.7912.2220.00safe5.27–10.309.91–14.5215.18–24.82safer4.41–11.179.12–15.3113.52–26.48actual15.0015.0030.00
Blocked shots
21%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.924.637.55safe1.33–4.503.22–6.054.55–10.55safer0.80–5.032.73–6.533.53–11.57actual2.007.009.00
Corners
27%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction4.706.2210.92safe2.49–6.904.24–8.196.73–15.10safer1.90–7.503.70–8.735.60–16.23actual7.008.0015.00
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction38.3363.57safe32.01–44.6557.25–69.89safer30.42–46.2555.65–71.49actual35.0065.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction311567878safe246–377503–632749–1008safer228–394485–649713–1044actual248487735
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction68.3981.50safe64.18–72.6177.00–86.01safer62.87–73.9175.67–87.34actual73.0087.00
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1810.5721.75safe8.32–14.047.63–13.5215.95–27.56safer7.44–14.926.71–14.4414.15–29.36actual13.006.0019.00
Offsides
70%
15%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.951.374.32safe1.74–4.160.21–2.541.95–6.70safer1.40–4.500.00–2.871.28–7.37actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
43%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.793.78safe0.93–3.050.67–2.911.61–5.96safer0.66–3.320.38–3.201.04–6.52actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.450.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.432.486.91safe3.01–5.840.93–4.033.94–9.88safer2.62–6.230.49–4.473.12–10.70actual7.004.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.08 0.12–2.04 0.00–2.30 | 2.00 | 2.43 1.57–3.29 1.33–3.54 | 0.00 | 3.52 1.69–5.34 1.19–5.84 | 2.00 | 15% 18% 67% |
| Shots on target | 4.10 2.24–5.95 1.74–6.45 | 6.00 | 6.82 5.11–8.53 4.64–9.00 | 8.00 | 10.92 7.35–14.48 6.39–15.45 | 14.00 | 16% 75% |
| Total shots | 12.40 8.70–16.11 7.67–17.14 | 22.00 | 18.39 15.01–21.77 14.08–22.70 | 26.00 | 30.79 23.71–37.88 21.75–39.84 | 48.00 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 7.79 5.27–10.30 4.41–11.17 | 15.00 | 12.22 9.91–14.52 9.12–15.31 | 15.00 | 20.00 15.18–24.82 13.52–26.48 | 30.00 | 13% 81% |
| Blocked shots | 2.92 1.33–4.50 0.80–5.03 | 2.00 | 4.63 3.22–6.05 2.73–6.53 | 7.00 | 7.55 4.55–10.55 3.53–11.57 | 9.00 | 21% 67% |
| Corners | 4.70 2.49–6.90 1.90–7.50 | 7.00 | 6.22 4.24–8.19 3.70–8.73 | 8.00 | 10.92 6.73–15.10 5.60–16.23 | 15.00 | 27% 62% |
| Possession % | 38.33 32.01–44.65 30.42–46.25 | 35.00 | 63.57 57.25–69.89 55.65–71.49 | 65.00 | — | — | 94% |
| Passes | 311 246–377 228–394 | 248 | 567 503–632 485–649 | 487 | 878 749–1008 713–1044 | 735 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.39 64.18–72.61 62.87–73.91 | 73.00 | 81.50 77.00–86.01 75.67–87.34 | 87.00 | — | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 11.18 8.32–14.04 7.44–14.92 | 13.00 | 10.57 7.63–13.52 6.71–14.44 | 6.00 | 21.75 15.95–27.56 14.15–29.36 | 19.00 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 2.95 1.74–4.16 1.40–4.50 | 2.00 | 1.37 0.21–2.54 0.00–2.87 | 2.00 | 4.32 1.95–6.70 1.28–7.37 | 4.00 | 70% 15% 15% |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 0.93–3.05 0.66–3.32 | 3.00 | 1.79 0.67–2.91 0.38–3.20 | 2.00 | 3.78 1.61–5.96 1.04–6.52 | 5.00 | 43% 21% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 4.43 3.01–5.84 2.62–6.23 | 7.00 | 2.48 0.93–4.03 0.49–4.47 | 4.00 | 6.91 3.94–9.88 3.12–10.70 | 11.00 | 71% 17% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+