Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Luca Zufferli · Italy
Goals
52%
23%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.172.95safe0.82–2.750.31–2.031.13–4.78safer0.56–3.010.06–2.270.63–5.28actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.953.559.49safe4.09–7.801.84–5.255.93–13.06safer3.59–8.301.37–5.724.96–14.02actual5.002.007.00
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction16.9111.0127.92safe13.21–20.627.63–14.3920.84–35.00safer12.18–21.656.70–15.3218.88–36.96actual14.0010.0024.00
Shots in box
87%
homeawaytotalprediction12.046.7418.78safe9.53–14.564.44–9.0413.97–23.60safer8.66–15.423.64–9.8412.31–25.26actual10.007.0017.00
Blocked shots
77%
homeawaytotalprediction5.062.517.57safe3.48–6.641.10–3.934.57–10.57safer2.94–7.180.61–4.413.55–11.59actual5.003.008.00
Corners
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.394.0110.40safe4.18–8.592.04–5.996.22–14.59safer3.59–9.191.50–6.535.09–15.72actual4.005.009.00
Possession %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction48.3052.42safe41.98–54.6246.10–58.74safer40.38–56.2144.51–60.34actual53.0047.00
Passes
40%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction464494957safe398–529429–558827–1087safer381–546412–576792–1122actual513449962
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction81.4182.10safe77.20–85.6377.59–86.60safer75.90–86.9376.26–87.93actual89.0090.00
Fouls
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3310.6322.96safe9.47–15.187.68–13.5717.15–28.76safer8.59–16.076.77–14.4915.35–30.56actual10.0010.0020.00
Offsides
51%
22%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.353.30safe0.74–3.160.19–2.510.92–5.67safer0.39–3.500.00–2.840.25–6.35actual4.000.004.00
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.873.47safe0.54–2.650.75–2.991.29–5.64safer0.27–2.930.46–3.280.73–6.21actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.11safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
25%
15%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.483.676.16safe1.07–3.902.12–5.233.19–9.12safer0.68–4.291.69–5.662.37–9.94actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.79 0.82–2.75 0.56–3.01 | 2.00 | 1.17 0.31–2.03 0.06–2.27 | 0.00 | 2.95 1.13–4.78 0.63–5.28 | 2.00 | 52% 23% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.95 4.09–7.80 3.59–8.30 | 5.00 | 3.55 1.84–5.25 1.37–5.72 | 2.00 | 9.49 5.93–13.06 4.96–14.02 | 7.00 | 73% 17% |
| Total shots | 16.91 13.21–20.62 12.18–21.65 | 14.00 | 11.01 7.63–14.39 6.70–15.32 | 10.00 | 27.92 20.84–35.00 18.88–36.96 | 24.00 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 12.04 9.53–14.56 8.66–15.42 | 10.00 | 6.74 4.44–9.04 3.64–9.84 | 7.00 | 18.78 13.97–23.60 12.31–25.26 | 17.00 | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 5.06 3.48–6.64 2.94–7.18 | 5.00 | 2.51 1.10–3.93 0.61–4.41 | 3.00 | 7.57 4.57–10.57 3.55–11.59 | 8.00 | 77% |
| Corners | 6.39 4.18–8.59 3.59–9.19 | 4.00 | 4.01 2.04–5.99 1.50–6.53 | 5.00 | 10.40 6.22–14.59 5.09–15.72 | 9.00 | 72% 18% |
| Possession % | 48.30 41.98–54.62 40.38–56.21 | 53.00 | 52.42 46.10–58.74 44.51–60.34 | 47.00 | — | — | 37% 58% |
| Passes | 464 398–529 381–546 | 513 | 494 429–558 412–576 | 449 | 957 827–1087 792–1122 | 962 | 40% 60% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.41 77.20–85.63 75.90–86.93 | 89.00 | 82.10 77.59–86.60 76.26–87.93 | 90.00 | — | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 12.33 9.47–15.18 8.59–16.07 | 10.00 | 10.63 7.68–13.57 6.77–14.49 | 10.00 | 22.96 17.15–28.76 15.35–30.56 | 20.00 | 60% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.74–3.16 0.39–3.50 | 4.00 | 1.35 0.19–2.51 0.00–2.84 | 0.00 | 3.30 0.92–5.67 0.25–6.35 | 4.00 | 51% 22% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.54–2.65 0.27–2.93 | 1.00 | 1.87 0.75–2.99 0.46–3.28 | 2.00 | 3.47 1.29–5.64 0.73–6.21 | 3.00 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.07–3.90 0.68–4.29 | 1.00 | 3.67 2.12–5.23 1.69–5.66 | 3.00 | 6.16 3.19–9.12 2.37–9.94 | 4.00 | 25% 15% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.